Former President Trump is stepping up his efforts in Virginia, a sign that Republicans believe the state is winnable in November.
While President Biden headed to battleground North Carolina for his post-debate rally, Trump traveled to Chesapeake, Virginia, to share the stage for the first time with Governor Glenn Youngkin (R).
The governor avoided appearing with Trump when he ran in 2021 due to the political implications. However, recent polls show that Old Dominion could be a favorable environment for Republicans in 2024, despite recent Democratic down-ballot victories.
“We’re not talking about Florida and Texas or other peripheral states that the left would like to target, we’re talking about a state that Biden won by 10.2 [points],” said Zack Roday, a Virginia-based Republican strategist who previously worked with Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC.
“Severity may still hit Virginia, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a change that clearly has happened in the polls,” he continued.
Recent polls suggest the president could face a tight race five months before Election Day. A Roanoke College poll released in May showed Trump and Biden tied at 42 percent in the state, with a margin of error of 4.2 percent. Other polls have shown Biden with a small lead over Trump. The average poll from Hill’s Decision Desk headquarters shows Trump leading Biden by a narrow margin of 0.2 percent.
Adding to the Republican enthusiasm in Virginia is Thursday night’s debate. Although Trump faced criticism for spreading falsehoods during the forum, coverage of the debate was dominated by what Democrats and Republicans called Biden’s disastrous performance. Biden’s voice sounded hoarse and weak on stage, and at times he appeared to have difficulty forming coherent sentences.
“If it’s still Biden vs. Trump after what happened last night, then yes, Virginia is in play,” said Tucker Martin, a Virginia-based GOP strategist and former communications director for former Gov. Bob McDonnell (R ).
“You have to remember that the average voter probably watched the first 20 minutes and tuned out,” he added. “That’s as far as they’re going to get in this race until maybe after Labor Day. How do you top a performance like that? I don’t know.”
Trump took the stage in Virginia on Friday afternoon, wasting no time in criticizing Biden for his debate performance.
“He studied so hard he didn’t know what the hell he was doing,” Trump joked before a crowd of his supporters. “He got the rules he wanted, he got the meeting he wanted, he got the network he wanted, with the moderators he wanted. No amount of rest or manipulation could help.”
While Biden’s supporters argue that his debate performance was not perfect and that he got off to a slow start, they say the debate does not change what is a consequential choice between Trump and Biden.
“Virginia has been a brick wall for Trump’s MAGA politics,” Rep. Gerry Connolly (D) of Virginia said in a statement. “We know democracy is at stake, and the choice between President Biden and the twice-impeached criminal couldn’t be clearer. We are not tired of winning, and we will not reverse the progress Democrats have made.
The Biden campaign also rejected the notion that the state is up for grabs for Republicans.
“If Trump wants to spend his time and money trying to campaign in blue states, feel free,” said a Biden campaign spokesperson.
The Biden campaign sought to take advantage of Trump’s rally in Chesapeake, which is taking place in the greater Hampton Roads metropolitan area, by focusing on the area’s large military population. The campaign focused on comments Trump allegedly made about deceased US soldiers, comments that Biden also seized on during the debate.
“Today, Donald Trump thinks he can travel to Virginia, home to more than half a million former and active military personnel and their families, after calling veterans ‘suckers’ and ‘losers,’” the senior adviser said and retired major from VoteVets. Gen. Paul D. Eaton in a statement released by the Biden campaign.
Trump denied making those remarks during Thursday’s debate.
Republicans still face an uphill climb in Virginia. Biden defeated Trump in Virginia by 10 points in 2020, and former President George W. Bush was the last Republican to win the state in 2004. Additionally, Democrats saw numerous negative victories in the state during the 2022 midterm elections and the 2023 state legislative races.
A series of factors would have to be present for the state to be fertile ground for the former president’s campaign. Trump would need to significantly increase scores in the rural and red parts of the state that ran for Youngkin in 2021. Additionally, he would have to win over suburban voters in the Hampton Roads and Richmond metro areas. The densely populated Democratic stronghold of Northern Virginia could prove to be the former president’s biggest obstacle. Republicans say Democratic turnout and enthusiasm would have to wane and that Trump would have to eliminate the region’s suburban voters.
“If Trump wants to win Virginia, it will look nothing like 2021,” Martin said. “Participation is so different, much higher because the electorate is much larger and people tend to return to their fields so there isn’t an explosion.”
“I just think that based on Biden’s performance last night, a lot of voters who were in the ‘I don’t like it either’ category were probably pushed into the Trump camp,” he said.
Republican strategist Ford O’Connell noted that Trump’s presence in Virginia on Friday is also a show of force, saying it is evidence of “expanding the map.”
“This is perfect for Trump, because you don’t want to take your foot off the gas,” O’Connell said. “As long as the map is expanding, you will be in a great position to win the election in November.”
Democrats say the map is expanding for them, pointing to the recent focus on North Carolina. Raleigh was the site of Biden’s first post-debate rally on Friday.
But Republicans are painting a picture with a greater sense of urgency.
“The question on many voters’ minds is not whether Biden will serve four more years, but rather whether he will serve four more months,” O’Connell said.
This story originally appeared on thehill.com read the full story
