Republicans have a two-thirds chance of maintaining their House majority in November, a warning sign for Democrats as President Biden struggles to quell concerns about the impact of downvoting his candidacy, according to a forecast from Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) released Tuesday.
DDHQ noted that the GOP’s chances of winning the House have increased by 1 percentage point since this week’s forecast, with Republicans seen as the favorites to win 11 of the 16 close races.
The prediction comes less than two weeks since Biden’s disastrous debate performance against former President Trump, which heightened concerns about his party’s chances of retaining the White House and Senate and flipping the House.
“Six, seven months ago, it was a disaster for the Republicans and for Kevin McCarthy and all that turmoil,” said Scott Tranter, director of data science at DDHQ.
“But overall, the overall vote for Republicans has been good, exceptionally good, in a presidential year, and that’s really spilled over into some of these House races, and that’s why we see Republicans slightly favored in 11 of the House races. 16 disputes,” he continued.
Tranter explained that “atmosphere” tends to drive House races during a presidential year and noted that “a good portion” of that is driven by Biden’s debate performance.
“I think the early data is a good trend for Republicans, and if the early data continues, the trend is only going to get better for Republicans,” Tranter said.
The Decision Desk headquarters forecast also noted that Trump has a 58 percent chance of flipping the White House in November, while Republicans have an 82 percent chance of flipping the Senate.
The forecast underscores Democrats’ lingering fears that keeping Biden at the top of the ticket could affect their ability to hold onto the White House and maintain their Senate majority in the fall.
Seven House Democrats called on the president to withdraw from the race, although Biden remained adamant that he would remain in the race — much to the chagrin of members of his party.
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