“The 360” shows diverse perspectives on the day’s main news and debates.
What is happening
Latinos are the fastest growing racial and ethnic group in the United States, and their influence on American politics increases with each election cycle.
With , Latinos make up about 14% of the U.S. electorate in 2022, the largest share of any non-white group. But these raw numbers underestimate the outsized role they will play in determining which party controls Congress after next month’s midterm elections. Latinos are overrepresented in swing states that will influence the Senate majority, especially in Nevada and Arizona. They also represent a large share of voters in several tight races that could decide whether Democrats remain in the House.
For years, the conventional wisdom in Washington has been that the growing influence of Latino voters — who have historically favored Democrats by significant margins — would be a windfall for Democrats and a major problem for Republicans. But recent elections have given experts reason to doubt that assumption.
Although Democrats won the presidency and both Houses of Congress in 2020, results at the national level showed significantly. President Biden won a strong majority of Latino voters nationwide, but his margin over Donald Trump was about eight percentage points lower than Hillary Clinton’s four years earlier. Some key parts of the country, especially the border regions of Florida and Texas, have seen a dramatic shift to the right among Latinos.
Some conservative analysts at the time saw 2020 as the first step in a mass movement of Latino voters to the Republican Party. Recent research suggests that this has not happened, at least for now. Democrats appear to have maintained a sizable advantage among Latino voters heading into the midterm elections, although the gap is smaller than it was in the midterm elections. .
Why is there debate?
Figuring out where the loyalty of Latino voters lies today and where it will lie in the future is one of the most important questions in U.S. politics. So why does this crucial voting bloc continue to defy the expectations of both parties?
The most frequent answer given by experts is that there is no “Latino vote”. They argue that although they are often discussed as a unique group, Latinos’ political views vary dramatically based on their age, their national heritage, income, where they live and how long they and their families have been in the U.S. . These differences are so significant that it is difficult for either party to appeal to certain Latinos without rejecting others.
Another factor, many say, is that both parties make assumptions about Latinos that are not necessarily true. They argue that Democrats assume Latino voters prioritize things like immigration and racial justice, when polls show they are more concerned about such as the economy, education and crime. Republicans, others say, may fall victim to the presumption that high rates of Christianity among Latinos mean they will side with religious conservatives on divisive cultural issues. Some evidence, in fact, suggests that the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn abortion protections nationwide may have seriously harmed the Republican Party’s standing, with the group heading into the midterm elections.
Many activists across the political spectrum say the main issue is a lack of awareness on both sides. The Latins had the of any racial group in 2020, but polls indicate that neither party is and resources to rally them to your side.
Perspectives
Democrats’ new appreciation for Latino voters helped them delay GOP gains
“Arguably the biggest benefit of less coverage that paints Latinxs as a monolithic voting bloc is that it serves as a huge wake-up call to both parties to stop taking us for granted. For a long time, Latinxs have been seen as reliable voters for Democrats. Demographics are destiny, they would say. But the 2020 election challenged that notion.” – Fidel Martinez,
The failures of both parties have left Latinos without a logical political home
“While the majority of Latinos still vote Democratic, a large group of Latino voters are still definitely in the running. There is no such deep-rooted, deeply loyal, widespread affinity on either side. Latino voters have long felt that neither party really speaks to them. That Democrats take them for granted, and that Republicans have candidates who seem to have complete hostility toward them, and that no one really values them as voters.” -Jennifer Medina,
The Republican Party’s Opposition to Abortion Rights May Have Reversed the Rightward Shift of Latinos
“Historically, Latinos have focused on issues such as the economy, jobs, education and immigration to determine their vote – areas in which the Republican Party believes it has an advantage among more moderate voters. However, the rapidly changing landscape of sexual and reproductive rights in the United States may influence what matters most to Latino voters.” — Salomé Gómez-Upegui,
Just because someone falls into the Latino category doesn’t mean they see themselves that way
“If you are a Latino who identifies as ‘white’ or ‘American,’ it often doesn’t matter what country you are from or where your ancestors came from. You may still have a strong white, American identity that makes you receptive to these messages because you want to be part of that community that is “protecting” the United States from these supposed threats. It feels good to be on the winning team, and white people in America are still the winning team.” — Melissa Michelson, political scientist, for
It can be confusing to understand the conflicting trends among Latino voters
“Some shift in Latino allegiances appears irreversible. In particular, the greater availability of self-identified conservative Latinos to vote Republican has likely increased the share of Latino votes that the Republican Party can routinely expect. … [But] If Democrats can sustain a roughly 3-to-2 split among Latino voters, it will pay growing dividends as more of them enter the electorate.” -Ronald Brownstein,
Neither party fully understands how profoundly diverse Latin Americans are
“As the second largest group of Americans of voting age, with many not solidly aligned with either party, Latino voters can be a powerful and stabilizing force in American politics. But misconceptions about this diverse, multiracial voting community persist. …Attempts to place Latino voters in an “either/or” box have consistently led to oversimplifications and erroneous assumptions about this community.” — Janet Murguía and Héctor Sánchez Barba,
Latino voters are ready to side with any party that makes them a priority
“Latino voters are not apathetic, they are not convinced. They are sending a warning to both parties.” — Clarissa Martínez de Castro, vice president of UnidosUS Latino Vote Initiative, for
Latinos are more socially conservative than most Democrats want to believe
“It seems clear that Democrats made a serious mistake in 2020 by grouping Hispanics with other ‘people of color,’ assuming they were sympathetic to the racial activism that dominated much of the political scene that year. In reality, Hispanic voters are not a liberal voting bloc, especially on social issues.” —Ruy Teixeira,
Latino Americans have been particularly affected by the chaos of recent years
“As in many years of campaigning, volatility will tell the story. The lingering effects of the pandemic, the highest inflation in 40 years, and two-thirds of Latinos agreeing with the overall U.S. majority that the country is on the wrong path make the interim season unquestionably difficult.” -Ray Suárez,
Democrats are alienating Latinos, but breaking party loyalty takes time
“Latinos, at least in areas like South Texas, are much more conservative than the national Democratic Party. … The challenge for Republicans is to break traditional party loyalty to the Democratic Party in areas like these, which is often much more powerful than the relatively conservative ideological and religious tendencies seen in polling data.” -Nate Hochman,
Is there a topic you would like to see covered on “The 360”? Send your suggestions to the360@yahoonews.com.
Photographic illustration: Yahoo News; photos: Getty Images
