There is a popular idea in political discourse known as the horseshoe theory. The idea is that if you map ideologies on a horseshoe-shaped spectrum, the far right and far left are actually more aligned than the centrists on either side.
It’s not exactly a serious academic theory, but it could be a useful picture when partisan orthodoxies are undergoing the kind of upheaval we’ve seen, particularly on the American right, over the last decade.
And nowhere is this unrest more apparent than in the rise of Ohio Republican Senator J.D. Vance, the self-styled “Appalachian populist”—with a Yale law degree and a long list of billionaire Silicon Valley supporters—who he is now running to be vice president.
Vance, who is 39, is widely seen as the vanguard of a millennial far-right that ostensibly defends blue-collar workers and rebukes greedy executives (a view Democrats and labor advocates dispute, but more on that in a moment).
And he has repeatedly run afoul of the Reagan-era Republican dogma that long ago made the party popular among deep-pocketed business leaders.
Vance drew criticism from Republicans earlier this year for praising Biden’s top antitrust advocate, Federal Trade Commission (FTC) Chairwoman Lina Khan. (She is “one of the few people in the Biden administration that I think is doing a good job,” Vance said at a conference in February.)
Vance even teamed up with Wall Street’s No. 1 enemy, Massachusetts Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren, to create legislation that would crack down on big banks.
Last month, Vance himself alluded to the horseshoe-shaped evolution of his views, telling Ross Douthat, from the New York Times: “The people on the left, I would say, whose politics I’m open to — those are the Bernie Bros.”
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Vance is not alone in this newly business-hostile wing of the Republican Party. Missouri Republican Senator Josh Hawley is another young man (44 is the new 24 in Congress) who is all in on Trump and positioning himself as a champion for working people.
Last month, Hawley rose to prominence — even among Democrats — when he publicly shamed the CEO of Boeing for accepting a big pay raise while cornering the base.
Investors and industry moguls are not liking this view of the Trump ticket.
“For many business leaders, knowing Vance is not loving him,” a group of researchers from the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute wrote in Time magazine on Tuesday.
“Many of Vance’s economic policy positions amount to an American CEO’s worst nightmare; a hodgepodge of populist promises that will expand government reach into the economy, undermine global confidence, and subvert free markets.”
Media mogul Rupert Murdoch and hedge fund pioneer Ken Griffin were reportedly part of this anti-Vance chorus, according to the Washington Post.
Anxious CEOs can take comfort in some theories from the left, where longtime worker advocates say Vance-Hawley’s millennial populism is little more than an act.
“A Trump–Vance White House is a corporate CEO’s dream and a worker’s nightmare,” AFL-CIO President Liz Shuler said in a statement Monday. “Senator JD Vance likes to play union supporter on the picket line, but his track record proves this is a sham.”
Vance’s short voting record — he’s been in the Senate for just under two years — doesn’t inspire much confidence among labor advocates.
He voted against Biden’s Reducing Inflation Act, which directed hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies to American manufacturers.
According to the AFL-CIO, the nation’s largest union federation representing about 12.5 million workers, Vance has introduced legislation that would allow bosses to ignore their workers’ unions and opposed legislation that would make it easier for workers form unions.
“Someone in labor would be raising the minimum wage, making sure people work overtime, supporting paid family and medical leave,” Terri Gerstein, director of the NYU Wagner Labor Initiative, told CNN.
“Pretending to be working class by wearing jeans and acting like you’re offended does nothing for the real working people who are struggling.”
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