Sunday marks 100 days until voters go to the polls for what has already been a tumultuous election, raising questions about what the coming months hold.
In a period of less than a month, the presidential race has already been rocked by a series of stunning twists, including President Biden’s dismal debate performance, the assassination attempt on Donald Trump and Biden’s decision to withdraw and support Vice President. -President Harris.
Now all eyes will be on how the next three months unfold. Here’s what to watch over the last 100 days of racing:
Who does Harris choose for vice president?
With Harris consolidating support from Democratic officials and delegates to likely become the party’s nominee, attention has shifted primarily to who she will choose as her running mate.
Verification materials have been requested from politicians including Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (D), Arizona Senator Mark Kelly (D), Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear (D), and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz (D). .
Whoever is chosen will oppose Senator JD Vance (R-Ohio), Trump’s running mate, on the Republican side, at least indirectly, if not on the stage of a debate, which has not yet been scheduled.
Beshear has become perhaps one of the most prominent attack dogs since Biden officially stepped aside on Sunday, criticizing Vance as a “phony” who is not “one of us,” referring to those in Appalachia, the geographic region surrounding the Appalachian Mountains. Kentucky and Ohio are neighbors.
Kelly also went after Vance for his stance on the Russia-Ukraine war and for resurfaced comments Vance made in 2021 in which he said “babyless babes” ran the country.
Democratic strategists said several of the names under consideration would be strong choices that would help expand the party’s map and improve key states like Pennsylvania. Each of the main names appears to be a more moderate candidate, which would potentially bring more ideological balance to the ticket.
“Each of these candidates will bring with them new voters, while Vance’s selection did the opposite,” said Democratic strategist Jeff Rusnak, arguing that Vance only appeals even more to “extreme” conservatives.
Trump and Harris debate?
Biden’s poor performance in what ended up being one of the most important presidential debates in US history triggered a series of events that caused Biden to withdraw from the race. While the Biden and Trump campaigns have already agreed to participate in a second debate in September on ABC, plans for that event or any others appear up in the air.
The Biden campaign had previously said that Harris had accepted an invitation from CBS News to a vice presidential debate in August. But the Trump campaign refused to commit to a date, although it said uncertainty remained about who would be on the Democratic ticket.
Since the switch from Biden to Harris, Trump has criticized ABC’s choice to host the presidential debate, accusing the network of being biased and not “worthy” of holding a debate. But he added that he expects “a lot” of debates and suggested that Fox News host the next one.
Still, Trump’s campaign said on Thursday that it would not schedule a debate with Harris until Democrats “formally” decide on their candidate, which could happen as early as next month if the Democratic National Committee moves forward with the your virtual call before your vote. convention.
Harris responded that she is “ready to go” and accused Trump of “backing down” after already agreeing to participate.
“I agreed to the debate previously agreed on September 10th. He agreed to it previously,” Harris told reporters. “Now, here he is backing down, and I’m ready, and I think voters deserve to see the split screen that exists in this race on the debate stage, and so I’m ready. Let’s go.”
Do searches change?
For much of the 2024 cycle leading up to the debate, polling between Trump and Biden remained largely stagnant. Just before the debate, the two candidates were essentially tied in national polls, while Trump led by a few points in key battleground states that are likely to decide the election.
After Biden stepped aside, election models, including those from Decision Desk HQ and The Hill, were disabled to wait for more data to better analyze the current state of the race. The Democrats’ mobilization around Harris came in the wake of an assassination attempt on Trump, the Republican National Convention, and a sitting president who chose not to run for reelection closer to Election Day than any other cycle in modern U.S. history. .
Because nominating conventions also often cause a short-term boost in a candidate’s poll numbers, several important events that could affect the race are coming together at the same time, with uncertain effects.
“This was thought to be a sleepy grudge game between two grumpy old men, and now it has become a close race again,” said Republican strategist Matthew Bartlett. “Nothing has changed, but everything has changed.”
Some early polls showed signs of optimism for Harris and the Democrats. Polls suggest Harris is making some gains against Trump in key states compared to Biden.
Polls released Friday also showed more comfortable leads in the traditionally blue states of New Hampshire and Maine, which Republicans began targeting as Biden struggled.
The Trump campaign’s pollster released a memo Tuesday arguing that Harris will see a temporary bump in the polls because of a “Harris honeymoon” period where she receives constant media coverage. He said it will last until the race calms down and the “fundamentals” of the race have not changed.
Democrats say they recognize the race will still be close, but they have new optimism after the change.
“I think what we’ve seen is that it’s going to be an extremely close race,” said Democratic strategist Justin Barasky. “I don’t think that has changed. I don’t think anyone, especially on the campaign trail, would say anything different, but it’s clear that Republicans are concerned and I’d rather it be us than them.”
Are there any more surprises?
No matter how close election day is, there are still more than three months to go. Labor Day, the traditional marker of races that reach the final sprint, hasn’t even arrived yet. As chaotic as the past month has been, it is not inconceivable that more could happen to change what defines the 2024 elections.
When Biden was still in the race, he and Trump would be the two oldest major party candidates in history, meaning they both had at least a slightly greater than normal chance of a health event forcing them to drop out of the race. . This remains true for Trump, who is now the oldest candidate in history.
Following the shooting at Trump’s rally, members of both parties called for moderation in rhetoric to de-escalate the political environment. But both sides have criticized the opposing candidate ever since, signaling a return to the environment that both sides appeared to recognize could lead to more political violence.
Meanwhile, both campaigns are figuring out how to adapt to the new political reality. Harris was already on the ticket, but is now preparing for a presidential run with just 100 days to do so.
Trump has been running for more than a year and a half, but now needs to change the message to focus on Harris instead of Biden.
Republican strategist Nicole Schlinger said Harris is not an “unknown quantity” because of her time as vice president, allowing the GOP to use what was already known about her in the campaign.
“All this research was already being done and that’s why we didn’t start from scratch,” she said.
“Will having Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket change which states are in play and perhaps where we deploy some of our voter contact resources?” she added. “So I think some of these decisions will be carefully considered, but in terms of the overall message and direction of the campaign, it is already a known factor.”
This story originally appeared on thehill.com read the full story
