Far from the dull revenge that has turned many Americans away from politics, the 2024 presidential election has had violent twists and scary twists.
No one expected President Joe Biden’s campaign to implode in less than a month, since the shock of his debate performance in CNN at the end of June until his decision to step away from the race at the end of July. Democrats have gone from literally going crazy over his candidacy to having new excitement over Vice President Kamala Harris as his replacement.
No one expected an assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, an event that united Republicans around him and caused many in his party to demonstrate a kind of divine reverence for his near-death experience.
So we don’t know specifically what will happen in the race between now and Election Day on Nov. 5, or what might happen afterward, when the nation’s unique Electoral College process begins. But we have some idea of what to expect:
August: Harris nomination, selection of a vice president and a convention in Chicago.
Although the Democratic Party almost immediately rallied behind Harris as its candidate, it has yet to officially select her. Delegates will do this quickly, between August 1 and 7, before the convention, a supportive maneuver to avoid changing the ballot box.
Harris will also need to choose a running mate. Expect this to happen soon, according to Jeff Zeleny, from CNNand not right before the convention, as is often the case.
In late August, Democrats will gather in Chicago for the convention. Expect the most incredible reception for Biden. Democrats stopped worrying about his electoral prospects and started considering him a hero.
At the beginning of the month, Senator JD Vance, Trump’s running mate, turns 40. He will be the third youngest vice president in US history and the first millennial to hold a nationwide elected office if the Republican ticket wins. With Biden out of the race, Vance is in the running with the oldest major party candidate in history, along with Trump, a baby boomer.
September: Debates, anyone? Trump’s sentence?
Biden and Trump agreed to a second debate, organized by ABC News, to take place on September 10. But with Biden out of the race, Trump suggested he might not participate in an ABC-sponsored debate. Instead, the Trump campaign suggested a debate on Fox News, and that network suggested September 17th.
Both sides seem eager to debate, so expect details to emerge.
The first early voting will also take place in September. North Carolina is the first state to send ballots by mail, on September 6, but other states will follow suit in the following weeks.
Back at school and work, many Americans may start paying more attention to the September elections. There will also be some landmark moments in the cultural zeitgeist, like when “Saturday Night Live” premieres at the end of the month with Maya Rudolph returning as Harris — and we find out who will play Vance.
Trump also faces sentencing for his conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records prior to the 2016 election. The Sept. 18 date could be pushed back as the court reacts to the new immunity granted to presidents by the Supreme Court.
October: voting is well underway.
Election Day isn’t until November 5th, but most states allow some type of early voting, either by mail or in person, and that process will come into play in October.
The majority of Americans, nearly 70%, voted early or by mail in 2020, according to census figures, although that number has been affected by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Campaigns will focus on getting votes in the few key states they think are up for grabs. In 2020, Biden won five states that Trump won in 2016. Those states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – could be the focus again in 2024, when Harris, who turns 60 in October, faces Trump.
November: Election Day and Beyond.
US law requires that federal elections take place on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. This year, it’s November 5th.
People who do not vote early will go to their local polling location. Polls will close at different times across the country. Due to the increase in mail-in voting, if key states are close together, as they were in 2020, we likely won’t know the winner on Election Day.
Regardless, expect lawsuits in certain states and the potential for recounts in others. Election Day is far from the end of the elections.
At the end of November, Biden turns 82 years old.
December: Electoral votes are cast
After the questions about the election are resolved, states confirm, or report, their statewide results. Electors meet at their respective state capitols to cast electoral votes for the state winner.
Nebraska and Maine also allocate some electoral votes by congressional district, and these could be crucial in a close race.
January: Someone will take the solemn oath
The new Congress takes office on January 3rd. It is this new Congress that, in the unlikely event of a tie in the Electoral College, would decide the election. Each state would have one vote for president in the House of Representatives.
In any case, lawmakers meet on January 6th, as everyone will remember from 2020, to count the electoral votes. Kamala Harris will chair the session. She could be the fifth vice president in history to oversee her own Electoral College victory, or the fourth in history to oversee her own Electoral College defeat.
On January 20, 2025, the next president takes office.
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