5 races to watch in the Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington primaries

Voters in four states go to the polls on Tuesday to weigh in on key congressional and gubernatorial primaries with less than 100 days until Election Day.

In Missouri, a high-profile House primary highlights divisions among Democrats over the conflict in Gaza and threatens to unseat a member of the progressive Squad. In Michigan, November showdowns will be set in the race to replace retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) as Democrats fight to keep the upper chamber.

Ballots will also be held in Kansas and Washington state, just weeks after the big shake-up at the top of the Democratic presidential ticket and just before the party convention later this month.

Here are the five races to watch on Tuesday:

Cori Bush faces a formidable challenge 

Progressive Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) is defending her House seat against a formidable Democratic challenger, St. Louis County Prosecutor Wesley Bell, in a race that could deal another blow to the “Squad” on Capitol Hill .

The race highlighted divisions in the Democratic Party over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. Bush took a strong stance against Israel’s response to the Hamas attack that started the conflict and was among a small group of House members who opposed a resolution expressing support for Israel.

His position upset many establishment Democrats. The American-Israeli Public Affairs Committee’s pro-Israel super PAC, which helped unseat fellow progressive Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D) in New York earlier this year, and which is now part of a national effort to unseat Bush.

Your challenger, with AIPAC’s support, suggested that Bush is too disruptive, echoing the frustration of moderates. The St. Louis Post-Dispatch editorial board similarly admonished the incumbent in supporting his challenger.

Both candidates entered the political spotlight in the consequences of the 2014 police shooting of Michael Brown in Ferguson. Bell unseated a former incumbent to win his district attorney seat in 2018, promising to bring justice to the Brown family, while Bush was elected to the lower house in 2020, pointing to his time as a Ferguson activist as his impetus to seek higher office. . Last year, Bel decided against a Senate proposal to compete for Bush’s place.

The district is heavily Democratic and the winner of the primary will be the overwhelming favorite in November, but Tuesday’s race will be a close contest. A June poll put Bush and Bell in a dead heat, fueling concerns about a second Squadron loss this cycle.

Michigan primaries in race for Stabenow seat  

The Democratic primary for Stabenow’s seat in the Great Lakes State could play a big role in deciding control of the Senate this fall.

Three-term Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) is the leading candidate for the open seat after Stabenow decided not to seek a fifth term in the upper chamber, promising to “pass the torch” to a new generation of lawmakers. Actor Hill Harper, who left ABC’s “The Good Doctor” to launch his campaign, is also in the ring.

But Stabenow’s reform also created a turnaround opportunity sought by Republicans, who said this cycle presents their best chance in years to win the Senate, with a widened battlefield and strong recruits.

The winner of Tuesday’s Democratic primary is expected to face former Rep. Mike Rogers (Mich.), the GOP primary favorite backed by former President Trump.

Slotkin has a strong record in his previous House races in his Lansing-area district. Polling averages from The Hill and Decision Desk HQ show her with a 6-point lead over Rogers, and forecasts show she has a 66 percent chance of winning the state if they face off.

Michigan will also be critical in the presidential race. Slotkin raised concerns last month that President Biden, before his historic exit from the 2024 race, was trailing Trump in private state polls. Biden saw significant protest votes within his party during the state’s primaries earlier this year, as progressives and Arab Americans expressed frustration with his handling of the war in Gaza.

But an early Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll showed Harris with a promising lead over Trump in the critical swing state, although it remains unclear how the newly revamped presidential ticket might impact key election contests.

Three Republicans fight for Missouri governor 

Nine candidates are vying for Republican approval to replace term-limited Gov. Mike Parson (R), with three candidates emerging as the leading contenders: Missouri Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe and state Sen. Bill Eigel.

All three notably attracted endorsements from Donald Trump, who wrote in his Truth Social last month, “They are MAGA and America First all the way! I can’t hurt two of them by endorsing one, so I’m going to endorse Governor of the Great State of Missouri, Jay Ashcroft, Mike Kehoe, and Bill Eigel. Choose any of them – you can’t go wrong!”

Ashcroft, whose father is former Missouri governor John Ashcroft, also gained support from former acting director of U.S. National Intelligence Richard Grenell, former director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee (R).

Kehoe has drawn other endorsements from Parson, the current governor, and other groups such as the Missouri Farm Bureau Political Action Committee and the Missouri Fraternal Order of Police. Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) supported Eigel.

Whoever wins the GOP primary will likely face Democratic businessman Mike Hamra or House Minority Leader Crystal Quade (D). The nonpartisan election pollster Cook Political Report rates the seat as “solid Republican.”

A Acting Attorney General Hires One of Trump’s Lawyers 

Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey was appointed to his 2022 position by Parson after Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) won a Senate seat last cycle. Bailey is running for his first four-year term against Trump lawyer Will Scharf in the Republican Party primary for Missouri attorney general.

Scharf is a Trump appellate lawyer who represented the former president in two appeals arising from his federal election subversion case: his gag order and presidential immunity defense. Scharf also represented Trump in some appeals arising from the sexual abuse and defamation lawsuits brought by columnist E. Jean Carroll.

Similar to Trump’s decision to endorse three leaders in the Republican Party primary for governor of Missouri, the former president supported Bailey and Scharf, who previously served as an assistant U.S. attorney in the state, in the Republican race for attorney general.

The race saw millions of dollars in external spendingnotable because lower-vote races generally don’t attract that kind of money.

Republican who voted to impeach Trump is running for re-election 

Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.), who was one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump and is just one of two pro-impeachment lawmakers remaining in the lower chamber, is running for re-election.

He faces seven candidates in his primary for Washington’s 4th Congressional District, including Republicans Jerrod Sessler, a former NASCAR driver and Navy veteran who has Trump’s endorsement, and former Senate candidate Tiffany Smiley.

Washington has an open top-two primary system, meaning all candidates running for public office, regardless of party affiliation, are placed on the same ballot. The top two will face each other in November.

Sessler ran against Newhouse in the GOP primary last cycle, placing fourth with 12 percent of the vote. Smiley ran against Sen. Patty Murphy (D-Wash.) last cycle and lost by nearly 15 points.

Trump won Newhouse’s district in 2020 by about 17 points, meaning Republicans are the heavy favorites to hold the seat in November.

This story originally appeared on thehill.com read the full story