The Biden administration is taking credit for the sharp drop in violent crimes across the country earlier this year, but one expert warns that the drops in FBI data are preliminary and likely exaggerated.
The data shows sharp declines in all violent crime categories across all regions in the first three months of 2024 compared to the previous year, continuing a downward trend since the rise of the coronavirus pandemic.
Murders and rapes fell 26%, robberies fell 18% and aggravated assaults fell 13% in the first quarter. Overall, violent crime fell 15%, reflecting declines across all regions, from 10% in the West to 19% in the Midwest, according to FBI data released Monday.
Meanwhile, property crimes decreased by 15%, according to data released by President Joe Biden in a statement.
“My administration is putting more police officers on the beat, holding violent criminals accountable and taking illegal guns off the streets – and we are doing it in partnership with communities. As a result, Americans are safer today than when I took office,” Biden said.
The declines were consistent with previous reports showing improvement since crime has increased during the coronavirus pandemic. But one crime data analyst was skeptical because the latest declines have been so sharp.
Violent crime almost certainly fell earlier this year, but the FBI almost certainly exaggerated by how much, wrote Jeff Asher of the data consulting firm AH Datalytics in an online post.
Preliminary data for 77% of the U.S. population is prone to reporting errors, which law enforcement agencies have months to correct before making final observations, Asher noted.
The downward trend is probably correct, but other data shows different rates of decline in violent crime by city and even a slight increase in violent crime in New York in the first three months of 2024, Asher wrote.
“I would advise extreme caution in reading too much about raw percentage changes and focusing on the big picture. Almost all crime data is imperfect, and quarterly data adds an important imperfect piece to the puzzle of national crime trends,” Asher wrote.
In 2020, homicides increased 29% for the biggest one-year jump in FBI records. Experts have suggested that the massive disruption from the pandemic, gun violence, concerns about the economy and intense stress were to blame.
Violent crime fell to levels close to pre-pandemic levels in 2022 and fell further in 2023.
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