EARTH’s population will peak in the mid-2080s, before falling to a level significantly lower than predicted a decade ago.
The current population of 8.2 billion people will increase to 10.3 billion over the next next 60 years before falling to 10.2 billion at the end of the century.
The global population in 2100 is now predicted to be 700 million fewer than predicted a decade ago – a 6% drop.
These findings were included in World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Resultsa United Nations report released to coincide with World Population Day.
Experts say the earlier spike is caused by factors including lower fertility levels in some of the world’s biggest countries, especially China.
Around the world, women have, on average, one fewer child than they did around 1990.
The report notes that the average number of live births per woman is less than 2.1 in more than half of all countries and areas surveyed.
This is below “the level necessary for a population to maintain a constant size over the long term without migration,” according to a press release.
Nearly a fifth of all countries and areas have “ultra-low” rates fertilitywhich means less than 1.4 live births per woman throughout her life.
At the time of the report, population sizes had peaked in 63 countries and areas, including China, Germany and Japan – a country famous for its low birth rate.
However, “the total population of this group is expected to decline by 14% over the next thirty years”, reported the UN.
For another 48 countries and areas, including Brazil and Vietnam, population is expected to peak between 2025 and 2054.
In the remaining 126 countries, including India and the United States, population is expected to increase by 2054 and possibly peak in the second half of the century or later.
The UK is among the countries expected to grow during the second half of the century, “albeit at a relatively slow pace”, and stabilize around its peak size.
“Very rapid growth” is predicted in nine countries, including at least five in Africa, with the total population doubling between 2024 and 2054.
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The report noted that low-income countries, in particular, face complications associated with early pregnancy.
In 2024, 4.7 million babies – around 3.5% of the world total – will be born to mothers under the age of 18.
Of these, around 340,000 were born to girls under the age of 15, with “serious consequences” for the health of young mothers and their children.
The report notes that investing in girls’ education and raising the age of marriage will have “positive outcomes for women’s lives.” healtheducational level and labor force participation.
“These efforts will also contribute to slowing population growth and reducing the scale of investments necessary to achieve sustainable development while ensuring that no one is left behind,” the press release read.
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Dr. Navid Hanif of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs addressed the implications of population growth and decline in a press conference on July 11.
The lower global population estimate “represents a major change compared to a decade ago, with important policy implications for the sustainability of our planet,” Hanif said.
Rapid growth, for starters, “will likely expand the scale of investments and the efforts needed to eradicate poverty, hunger and malnutrition and ensure universal access to health care, education and other essential services in countries already facing serious economic, social and environmental impediments.”
On the other hand, Hanif continued, “rapid population decline” in other countries could lead to labor shortages and impact federal programs like Social Security.
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Death rates have fallen and life expectancy has soared over the past 30 years, largely due to advances in medicine.
After a decline during the COVID-19 pandemic, global life expectancy at birth increased from 70.9 years to 73.3 years in 2024.
By the end of the 2050s, more than half of all global deaths will occur at age 80 or older, a substantial increase from the 17% recorded in 1995.
The number of people aged 65 and over is expected to surpass the number of children by 2070.
Meanwhile, the number of people aged 80 and over is predicted to exceed the number of children by the mid-2030s.
What is load capacity?
The term denotes a popular concept in ecology – here’s what it means for the Earth’s population.
In 1798, economist Thomas Malthus predicted that the Earth could not support an indefinitely growing human population.
Malthus believed that limits were imposed by the availability of resources. If humans themselves didn’t reduce population growth, famine would do it for them, he figured.
The theory helped popularize the concept of carrying capacity, which states that there is a certain population size above which a species begins to damage its habitat.
Once you pass this critical point, life becomes unsustainable.
It is unclear when we will reach carrying capacity on Earth. Scientists have disagreed on the exact estimate for decades, hypothesizing numbers between 2 billion and 40 billion people.
So how can we push the global population back from the brink?
Proposals include switching to sustainable forms of energy such as solar and wind power, as running out of coils could spell doom for the planet.
Experts also recommend finding ways to reduce air and water pollution, which harm resources essential to our survival.
This story originally appeared on The-sun.com read the full story
