What to watch in Tuesday’s primaries

Another member of the “squad” of progressive lawmakers is fighting for political survival in Tuesday’s primary, which will also put former President Donald Trump’s endorsement to the test once again, including in the crucial Senate race in Michigan.

Rep. Cori Bush’s Democratic primary in Missouri is among the most expensive and hotly contested races on Tuesday, as voters in four states – Missouri, Washington, Michigan and Kansas – choose their party’s nominees in the congressional and states.

Four years after unseating former Rep. William Lacy Clay Jr. in the heavily Democratic 1st District, Bush is seeking to win a race that has exposed the party’s divisions over Israel.

She faced a series of attacks from the United Democracy Project, a super PAC linked to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the pro-Israel lobby group. The super PAC also spent millions to defeat a fellow “squad” member, Rep. Jamaal Bowman, D-N.Y., in the June primary.

Cori Bush, member of the ‘squad’, faces Democratic primaries putting Israel in the spotlight

The pro-Israel super PAC also worked to boost Bush’s opponent, St. Louis County Attorney Wesley Bell, who initially ran for Senate but decided to face Bush a few weeks after the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks.

And Bush isn’t the only House member on the defense Tuesday.

Rep. Dan Newhouse, R-Wash., is once again trying to advance in the primary after drawing Trump’s ire for voting to impeach following the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot.

Along with Rep. David Valadao of California, Newhouse is one of two pro-impeachment House Republicans still in office. The eight other Republicans reformed or lost to primary challengers backed by Trump two years ago.

Valadão and Newhouse benefited from the two most voted primary systems in their states, in which all candidates compete in the same primary ballot and the two most voted advance to November, regardless of party affiliation.

Trump initially supported Navy veteran Jerrod Sessler in the race against Newhouse. But on Sunday, he also expressed support for former nurse Tiffany Smiley, who outspent the rest of the area on the airwaves, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact. Smiley also received a boost from a supportive super PAC. About that, America Leads Inc., a group that supported two other Republican lawmakers facing primaries, spent on ads to support Newhouse.

A third House member — Democrat Shri Thanedar — is on the defense in his primary in Michigan’s 13th District. He faces two intraparty opponents vying for the seat he has held for nearly two years: Detroit City Council member Mary Waters, who has been endorsed by Mayor Mike Duggan, and attorney Shakira Lynn Hawkins.

Michigan’s battles take shape

Tuesday’s primaries will also mark the clashes in a series of competitive races in Michigan, a presidential swing state that is also home to one of the year’s key Senate races.

Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow is not seeking a fifth term, and both party establishments have rallied behind candidates to succeed her.

Trump supported former congressman Mike Rogers, who was once a strident critic of him. But Rogers is seen as one of the big wins of the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s recruiting cycle, giving the GOP a candidate with a track record of electoral success and appeal to independent voters.

Other potentially strong candidates, including former Detroit police chief James Craig, former congressman Peter Meijer and wealthy businessman Sandy Pensler, have ended their campaigns. That leaves former Rep. Justin Amash, who left the Republican Party in 2019 after becoming “disenchanted” and “scared” by the Republican Party, as Rogers’ main competitor.

On the Democratic side, Rep. Elissa Slotkin is seen as the party’s favorite, given her support from top party leaders and labor organizations. She faces the challenge from Hill Harper, a political newcomer and actor known for his work on the ABC series “The Good Doctor.”

Tuesday’s primaries will also set the tone in a number of competitive House races, including several in Michigan.

In Michigan’s 3rd District, Democratic Rep. Hillary Scholten faces several challenges in filling the seat she has held for nearly two years.

Scholten has the benefit of the mandate against Democratic challenger Salim Al-Shatel, a former small business ownerFormer substitute teacher and real estate agent who graduated from Michigan State University in 2015.

On the GOP side, attorney Paul Hudson and financial consultant Michael Markey are competing to take on the Democratic winner in November. So far, Trump has not weighed in on the Republican primary race.

Scholten defeated Republican John Gibbs by nearly 13 percentage points in the 2022 general election, flipping the seat to Democrats.

Notably, on July 11, Scholten joined the chorus of Democratic congressmen calling on President Joe Biden to drop out of the presidential race, praising his leadership while encouraging him to pass the torch. She has since attended a surrogate event for Vice President Kamala Harris in Grand Rapids late last month.

The 3rd District in western Michigan includes most of the Grand Rapids area and is home to battleground Kent County, which scored for Biden by about 6 points in 2020. (Biden won the entire state by less than 3 points ).

There are also competitive primaries on both sides in Michigan’s 8th Congressional District, where Rep. Dan Kildee, a Democrat, is not seeking re-election.

Republican candidates include Paul Junge, a former criminal prosecutor and TV news anchor who served in the Trump administration and has Trump’s endorsement; Mary Draves, former Dow Chemical executive; and Anthony Hudson, truck driver. Former Flint Mayor Matt Collier, State Senator Kristen McDonald Rivet and State Board of Education President Pamela Pugh are running for the Democratic nomination.

General elections there are seen as a contest.

The matchup will also be set in Michigan’s competitive 7th District to replace Slotkin. The parties have coalesced around two former state senators: Republican Tom Barrett, who lost a close race to Slotkin two years ago, and Democrat Curtis Hertel.

More Trump Tests

Trump’s endorsement will be put to the test in a few other races on Tuesday.

Trump has endorsed several candidates in the Missouri governor’s race, supporting three of the leading Republican candidates: Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe and state Sen. Bill Eigel.

With the state trending to the right, the winner of the Republican primary is expected to win the governor’s race in November. Tuesday’s primary will also set the tone in the state Senate race, with Navy veteran Lucas Kunce making another run against Republican Sen. Josh Hawley after losing the 2022 Democratic primary.

Later in the vote, Trump endorsed former state Sen. Bob Onder to replace retiring Republican Rep. Blaine Leutkemeyer in the deep-red 3rd District.

The primaries attracted millions of dollars in outside spending. The conservative Club for Growth Action supported Onder, while two establishment groups active in other GOP primaries, Conservatives for American Excellence and America Leads Action Inc., released ads attacking him.

But in Kansas’ solidly Republican 2nd District, Trump and the Conservatives for American Excellence are on the same side in Tuesday’s primary to replace retiring Republican Rep. Jake LaTurner. Both support former state Attorney General Derek Schmidt.

Kansas Republicans will also choose a candidate to face Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids in the more competitive 3rd District, which Trump has had no say in.

Trump has taken sides in Washington’s 3rd District, where Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is a top Republican target as one of five Democrats representing a district Trump won in 2020. He supported controversial Army veteran Joe Kent.

Kent lost to Gluesenkamp Perez by less than 1 percentage point in 2021 when facing allegations about his ties to extremist groups. Kent faces Camas City Council member Leslie Lewallen in the primary. She argued that Kent would lose once again if she were the Republican Party nominee.

Voting ends at 8pm ET in Michigan and Missouri and 9pm ET in Kansas. Elections in Washington are conducted entirely by mail and ballots must be postmarked on or before Election Day or placed in drop boxes by 11 p.m. ET.