It is a 2024 Election Battleground where millions of dollars are being spent and big names in American politics are emerging. But it’s not in the Rust Belt. And it’s not Georgia or Nevada either.
It’s Long Island, a suburban stretch east of New York City, home to about 3 million people who could play an outsized role in choosing which party controls Congress. Democrats are just a few seats away from winning a majority in the U.S. House and the island, just a train ride from liberal Manhattan, has emerged as an unlikely stage for some of this year’s most competitive elections.
The region is also an unlikely center of Republican power in deep blue New York.
In some ways, the issues that pushed Long Island to the right in recent elections could liven up any state-run suburb in November, as GOP candidates focus their campaigns on crime, immigration and the economy. Democrats’ move to replace the president Joe Biden with the vice president Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket last month added another unpredictable variable to electoral contests across the country, with both parties struggling to assess the impact.
But here, Republicans have built on the momentum by seizing on the suburban backlash over progressive policies in New York City, presenting themselves as a dam that can stop the left from flooding Long Island with liberal excess.
The strategy has proven successful so far. Long Island Republicans have dominated local races in Nassau and Suffolk counties and control all but one of the island’s congressional seats. New York as a whole can reliably vote Democratic, but there are nuances not far from Manhattan.
“The Democratic Party is no longer the Democratic Party as we knew it, or as I knew it, growing up. That has changed. It’s become much more left, the progressives are taking over,” said Joe Cairo, chairman of the Nassau County Republican Party and architect of the island’s Republican victories. “People move here, they’re fed up with the city.”
Republicans achieved perhaps their most prominent victories on Long Island two years ago as the city recovered from a pandemic-era surge in violent crime. Suburban voters were hit with a constant stream of apocalyptic headlines and TV commentary suggesting an urban hellscape next door.
Republicans won all four of the island’s congressional seats, and one Long Island Republican, former U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin, nearly pulled off a major upset in the race for governor — a position the GOP hasn’t held in years.
Democrats, however, now see Long Island as an excellent opportunity to win back congressional seats in their bid to regain the House majority.
The party is coming an encouraging victory in a winter special election for the seat left vacant when George Santos was expelled from Congress. Democrat Tom Suozzi, running as a centrist, defeated a Republican county legislator.
Republican U.S. Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, who is seeking a second term in a district east of Queens, is expected to face a serious challenge from Democrat Laura Gillen, whom he defeated by less than 4 points in 2022.
Democrats also issued dire warnings about what a unified federal government under Republicans could mean for abortion access, following a formula that has worked elsewhere to boost turnout on their side.
“The legacy of the Dobbs decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, it’s starting to speak out and really resonate with people who care about access to reproductive health care,” said Gillen, a former county supervisor.
Long Island Democrats also hope to benefit from having Harris as their presidential candidate, with voters excited about a candidate in a year when protecting abortion access is on voters’ minds.
“Harris’ rise to the top of the ticket has energized more than just the presidential race. It injected a lot of hope into the Democratic campaigns for Congress, where as Biden tanked, they saw his prospects dwindling as well,” said Larry Levy, dean of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University on Long Island.
In New York, Democrats tried to recalibrate after their defeats on Long Island in 2022, shifting their political strategy toward moderates.
Governor of New York Kathy Hochul made crime a major focus and won concessions from progressives in the House to adjust bail laws and strengthen criminal penalties for assaults on retail workers. In June, Hochul also made the decision to suspend a new toll for drivers entering Manhattan after strong resistance from passengers.
Republicans downplay Suozzi’s recent victory, arguing that the former congressman faced a relative unknown in a low-turnout special election on a cold, snowy day. Still, Democrats believe Suozzi’s centrist approach gave his candidates a roadmap for Long Island.
“You can’t ignore the issues that people care about, and you have to tap into the vital center to win,” said John Avlon, a former CNN anchor and Democrat running against Republican U.S. Rep. Nick LaLota in a congressional district east of Long. Island that has been controlled by Republicans for a decade.
But it may be difficult for Democrats to shake the perception that they are too progressive for some suburban voters.
Joe Gillespie, a 58-year-old electrician who commutes from Levittown, Long Island, to construction sites in New York City for work, said Democrats have become too liberal on crime, immigration and social issues to change. convincingly.
“They went so far left,” Gillespie said. “People are going to assume they’re just doing this to win back votes now.”
Candidates will also have to face a figure who looms over all 2024 races: former president donald trump.
The former Republican president is often hailed as a hero in parts of Long Island by the many blue-collar workers and New York City police and firefighters who live in the suburbs. Trump flags fly on manicured lawns and on the backs of pickup trucks.
Trump won Suffolk County, in the eastern half of the island, in 2016 and 2020, although his margin narrowed last time. He lost Nassau County in both elections, trailing Biden by 15 points in the district where D’Esposito now faces Gillen. It remains to be seen whether Trump will hurt or help Republicans on the island this year, but both parties are optimistic.
Violent crime has dropped substantially in the New York City metropolitan area since the 2022 elections, but Republicans continue to increase it.
Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, a Republican, has sought to score points with suburban parents by leading an effort to ban girls’ and women’s sports teams with transgender players from using county-run parks and fields. And while it may not have much practical impact, the initiative reflects a line of attack that has worked for Republican Party leaders elsewhere.
The new rules are now the subject of a legal battle. The state’s Democratic Attorney General Letitia James argues the ban violates state anti-discrimination laws, but Blakeman said support for the policy locally has been “overwhelming.”
“My phone, texts and emails have probably eight votes for and two against,” he said. “The Democratic Party has veered so far to the left that independent voters and common-sense Democrats can no longer support its positions,” he said.
