BOZEMAN, Mont. — With control of the Senate potentially at stake, Donald Trump will visit Montana on Friday in hopes of remedying some problems. unfinished business since 2018, when he repeatedly campaigned in Big Sky Country in a failed attempt to unseat Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester.
Tester has tried to convince voters that he is aligned with Trump on many issues, mirroring his successful strategy from six years ago. While that worked in a non-presidential election year, faces a more critical test this fall with Tester’s opponent, former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehytrying to link the three-term incumbent with Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris.
Harris has benefited nationally from an explosion of enthusiasm among key Democratic constituencies, which quickly rallied around her after President Joe Biden withdrew from the campaign last month. She has drawn large crowds in swing states, traveling this week with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, his pick to be her vice presidential candidate.
However, Trump’s only rally this week will be in a state he won by 16 percentage points four years ago, not a November battleground. Facing new pressure in the race from a candidate with growing enthusiasm, Trump on Thursday called questions about his lack of stops in swing states “stupid.”
“I don’t need to go there because I’m leading those states,” he said. “I’m going because I want to help senators and parliamentarians get elected.”
It will add fundraising stops in Wyoming and Colorado.
Friday’s rally at Montana State University, which begins at 8 p.m. Mountain Time, is expected to draw thousands of Republican Party supporters. However, the former president’s biggest impact could simply be having his name above Sheehy’s on the ballot in November, said Rob Saldin, a political analyst at the University of Montana.
“There is a segment of the electorate that will show up when Trump is on the ticket,” Saldin said. And that could benefit Sheehy, a Trump supporter and political newcomer who made his fortune from an aerial firefighting business.
Republicans have I was high in Montana for more than a decade and now holds every statewide office except Tester’s.
Tester won each of his previous Senate races by narrow margins, presenting himself as a sincere farmer who builds personal connections with people in Montana and is willing to break with their party on issues that matter to them. He also became a prolific fundraiser.
The race has attracted national attention, with Democrats clinging to a slim majority in the Senate and defending far more seats than the GOP this year. Tester is considered one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents.
For him to win, a large number of Trump supporters would have to vote on a split ticket and support the Democratic senator.
Trump’s effort to remove Tester dates back to the lawmaker’s 2018 role as chairman of the Senate Committee on Veterans Affairs. Tester revealed past misconduct by Trump’s personal physician Ronny Jackson, which scuttled Jackson’s nomination to lead the Department of Veterans Affairs.
Then-President Trump took the matter personally and came to Montana four times to campaign for Republican Matt Rosendale, who was then the state auditor. Rosendale lost by 3 percentage points.
Before Trump’s latest visit, Tester sought to protect himself from accusations of being part of the Democratic establishment by releasing the names of Republicans who support him, including former Montana governor Marc Racicot. His campaign highlighted more than 20 pieces of legislation, many of them dealing with veterans’ issues, that Tester sponsored and Trump signed.
Tester was also the only Democratic delegate from Montana to withhold a vote supporting Harris as the party’s presidential nominee following Biden’s withdrawal. And when the Democratic National Convention takes place later this month in Chicago, Tester will be back in Montana “cultivating and meeting face-to-face with Montanans,” said campaign spokesman Harry Childs.
The last time Tester attended the Democratic National Convention was in 2008. That was also the last time a Democratic presidential candidate came close to winning Montana, with President Barack Obama trailing by just over 2 percentage points.
Friday’s rally takes place in Gallatin County, which Tester has become increasingly dependent on throughout his political career.
He lost the county in his first Senate race in 2006, but his support has grown since then. A substantial margin of victory in Gallatin in 2018 helped push him ahead of Rosendale.
Republican Don Seifert, a former Gallatin County commissioner, said he voted for Tester that year and plans to do so again this year.
Seifert supported Trump in 2016 and said he has continued to support other Republicans, including Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte and Sen. Steve Daines.
“Montanans tend to vote for the person rather than the party,” Seifert said. “For the state of Montana, Jon is the one who can do what we need.”
But Sheehy says Tester lost touch with his home state and followed Democrats in Washington. The Republican alleged in a message this week to his supporters that Tester was “responsible for the rise of Kamala Harris” because he served as chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee from 2015 to 2017, when she was elected to the Senate from California.
Tester outpaced Sheehy by more than three to one in campaign donations reported to the Federal Election Commission. However, outside groups supporting Sheehy helped the Republican fill much of that gap, pouring tens of millions of dollars into the race as ads from both sides saturated Montana’s airwaves.
