The biggest change in the polls since Biden’s departure: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Policy Deska nightly newsletter that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News politics team on the campaign, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s issue, senior political editor Mark Murray looks at Kamala Harris’s rise in popularity in the polls. Plus, deputy political editor Adam Wollner and correspondent Vaughn Hillyard look back at the volatile relationship between Donald Trump and Elon Musk ahead of their virtual discussion.

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The biggest change in polls since Biden’s departure

By Mark Murray

Vice President Kamala Harris now leads in the key battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to the latest round of polls. New York Times/Siena College researchalthough its advantage in these states is within the margin of error.

And independents have moved towards Harris, the same polls show.

But here’s the biggest change of all in these searches, as well as some other recent public research: Harris is now more popular than President Joe Biden was before he ended his campaign — a dynamic that helped restart the 2024 presidential race.

In July NYT/Siena Poll in PennsylvaniaBiden’s popularity was well submerged among likely voters, with 39% viewing him favorably and 59% viewing him unfavorably (net rating of -20). In comparison, 45% had a favorable opinion of former President Donald Trump, while 52% had an unfavorable opinion (net rating of -7).

Harris, meanwhile, was 42% favorable and 55% unfavorable (net rating of -13).

Now? Half of likely voters view Harris favorably and 48% view her unfavorably (+2 net rating) in Pennsylvania. This is also the case when combining the NYT/Siena polls in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

In Pennsylvania, that represents a net 22-point swing in popularity from Biden to Harris and a 15-point swing to Harris last month.

As for Trump, his rating in Pennsylvania is now 48% favorable and 51% unfavorable (net rating of -3). When the three battleground state polls are combined, 46% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of him, while 53% have an unfavorable opinion (net rating of -7). That’s exactly where he was a month ago.

The big question for this big swing in the Democratic standard-bearer’s popularity is whether it will be lasting or whether it will simply be a temporary honeymoon for the party after Biden’s departure.

The answer could very well end up deciding the winner of an election that is less than three months away.

Trump’s event with Elon Musk highlights their volatile relationship

By Adam Wollner and Vaughn Hillyard

Trump is set to join tech billionaire Elon Musk for a virtual discussion on X, formerly known as Twitter, at 8 p.m. ET this evening. The event will mark the latest chapter in Trump’s up-and-down relationship with Musk and the social media company the Tesla CEO now owns.

Musk began receiving praise from the right in June 2022, around the time he was in the process of acquiring Twitter – from which Trump was banned at the time following the January 6, 2021 riot at the US Capitol. Musk said he had I voted for a Republican for the first time supporting Mayra Flores in a special House election in Texas.

But Musk quickly drew Trump’s ire, saying he was “leaning in” to Ron DeSantis in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries. He also said Trump was too old to be president and that he “should sail off into the sunset.” Trump called Musk a “bull artist.”

Still, Musk reinstated Trump’s Twitter account in November 2022, although the former president – ​​once a prolific tweeter – did not immediately return after starting his own social media platform, Truth Social. DeSantis finally launched his presidential campaign with Musk on Twitter, but the launch was fraught with technical difficulties, much to Trump’s delight.

But in the months following DeSantis’ withdrawal from the race in January, Musk’s tone began to change. He met with Trump and Republican donors in March and increased your social media posts criticizing Biden.

After Trump survived an assassination attempt last month, Musk announced he was endorsing him “fully”and he has created a super PAC to support the former president.

All of which brings us to tonight’s conversation between the two men. Ahead of the event, Trump resumed posting on X — only the second time he has done so since Musk reserved a ban on @realDonaldTrump account.

That’s all from the Department of Politics for now. If you have feedback – like or dislike – send us an email at newsletter@nbcuni.com

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