Kamala Harris has that new candidate glow and that propelled her to the lead.
Just three weeks into her campaign, the vice president is riding a wave of support in horse race polls, reversing a persistent gap that Joe Biden has never been able to overcome.
But it’s difficult to know how real – or durable – this is.
It was a historic month in American politics and, in a vacuum, any of its main events would shake up the race and create a temporary jump in the polls: the assassination attempt on Donald Trump on July 13, the Republican convention, the choice of Trump’s ticket, Biden dropping out of the presidential race, Harris choosing a vice-presidential candidate. But it’s impossible to tease out the effects of any single event in establishing the baseline state of the race, and we’re about to enter another moment that would normally move the needle: next week’s Democratic convention.
How has the race changed structurally? And if Trump comes back ahead, what numbers will portend that before he appears in the horse race?
An abundance of research in the coming days will begin to answer these questions, and will be followed by an intense two months of research. There are several important measures to watch that have so far boosted Harris’ nascent candidacy: metrics like her personal favorability, which has soared, or Trump’s dwindling lead on the economy, one of the former president’s central issues.
“Presidential campaigns are a marathon and this has turned into a sprint,” said Neil Newhouse, the lead pollster for Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign. “And that tends to favor the candidate who is new on the horizon.”
Here are five numbers to watch, beyond the horse race, to understand the real state of the race:
Favorable review of Kamala Harris
On June 27: 39 percent (source: RealClearPolitics Average)Now: 45 percent
Voters are seeing Harris in a new light since she became the Democrats’ presidential nominee.
Over the past three years, there has been a wide gap between the number of voters who had a favorable opinion of the vice president and the significantly larger share who viewed her unfavorably.
This gap has been closed. Node New York Times/Siena College research released last weekend, just as many likely voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin viewed her favorably (50%) or unfavorably (48%).
But that doesn’t mean it will last: Trump’s campaign has begun an advertising barrage in swing states, trying to paint it as “dangerously liberal.” That could hurt his favorable ratings, especially as scrutiny of his record increases after the launch of his initial campaign.
“Imagery is a precursor to electoral change,” Newhouse said. “You will see her image change before the vote changes. You will see her unwanted items increase, her favorites in particular.”
But Trump is also at an upper limit of favorability – at least since the 2020 elections – after the assassination attempt and the Republican convention. This means that his numbers could also be artificially high and could return to their more consistent levels – which are generally unpopular.
“With Kamala Harris, it’s like ‘A Star Is Born,’” said Mark Mellman, the then-Sen.’s top researcher. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in the 2004 presidential race. “It’s not unrealistic. It’s not unnatural. It’s not fake. But it’s not necessarily permanent. I can certainly imagine a situation where the favorability of both candidates decreases somewhat.”
Share of third-party votes
July 21: 12.2 points (source: RealClearPolitics Average)Now: 7.1 points
In the weeks since Harris replaced Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket, the percentage of voters who told pollsters they plan to vote for one of three independent or third-party candidates — Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West or Jill Stein — has been cut nearly in half.
This is technically part of the horse race issue, but it is also specifically revealing of an election in which more voters – thanks to Harris’s rising popularity and Trump’s post-assassination and post-conviction favorability surge – actually like the your main options. That wasn’t the case before the Democratic candidate switch, when about a quarter of voters said they didn’t like Biden as much as Trump.
The so-called “double haters” were about to be decisive. But now there are fewer of them – one Monmouth University Research released Wednesday showed that just 8% of registered voters do not have a favorable opinion of either major party candidate — and thus fewer voters willing to pull the lever for Kennedy, West or Stein.
Voter enthusiasm
Democrats who are “very excited”: 62 percent (source: New York Times/Siena College Survey of likely voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin)Republicans who are “very excited”: 63 percent
The most enthusiastic party doesn’t always win: In 2012, polls showed that Romney’s supporters were more enthusiastic about voting than those of President Barack Obama.
But Harris has energized Democrats with her candidacy in a way that Biden — and the specter of a second Trump term — has not. In the New York Times/Siena College polls, Democrats and Harris supporters were as likely as Republicans and Trump supporters to say they were “very excited” about the vote.
The numbers were even starker in the Monmouth survey. A whopping 85% of Democrats described themselves as excited about the upcoming Harris-Trump race, compared to 71% of Republicans. The percentage of enthusiastic Republicans has remained unchanged since June, when Monmouth pollsters asked about a “Trump-Biden rematch.” But it’s a big shift for Democrats: Just 46% were excited about this rematch before the debate.
Enthusiastic votes don’t count any more than those from voters who aren’t as enthusiastic – but in a tight race, closing that energy gap could be crucial.
Who do you think would handle the economy better?
June: Trump 54 percent, Biden 45 percent (source: NPR Poll/PBS News/Marist College)Now: Trump 51 percent, Harris 48 percent
Trump has long maintained a commanding lead over Biden on the dominant issue of the race: the economy. But this was also nullified by the change at the top of the Democratic ticket.
Polls now show Trump with only a small lead on the economy over Harris: 3 points in an NPR/PBS News/Marist College national poll, and 6 points in the three Rust Belt battlegrounds in the New York Times/Siena College poll.
Harris is eager to build her own record. She is set to hold an event in North Carolina on Friday touting her plan to cut costs, a sign that Biden’s inflation record could be a drag on her candidacy if she fails to carve out her own profile.
Country direction
On June 27: 25% in the right direction, 65% in the wrong directionToday: 25% right direction, 65% wrong path
This metric is not changing. But that may be how voters think about it.
Before last month, Trump represented change. And with two in three voters seeing the country as on the wrong track, that was a favorable position for him.
But Harris’ entry confused Trump’s status as a candidate of change. Now she’s the one claiming the mantle again and – yes – younger. It’s harder to be innovative and exciting when you’re 78 years old and the first person in 80 years to be your party’s presidential candidate in three consecutive elections.
Just as they will with the economy, Trump and his allies will try to convince voters who think the country is on the wrong path that Harris’ role as vice president makes her responsible for the current state of the country.
