PHILADELPHIA — Pennsylvania could be the most important state for both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in November. But with both having already secured their party’s nominations, the most interesting primaries in the Keystone State on Tuesday will be at the polls.
In Pittsburgh, Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pa.) is the first member of the progressive ‘Squad’ to face a primary challenge this year, although a victory for her seems more than likely at this point. And in a number of other districts, Democrats and Republicans will choose their nominees for potentially competitive general elections.
One congressional race is already set: the already expensive state Senate race between Sen. Bob Casey, a Democrat, and Republican businessman Dave McCormick, both unopposed in their respective primaries.
There are also competitive primaries for statewide offices, and even the dormant presidential race could reveal a few things about Pennsylvania’s key suburbs. Here are five things we’re watching tonight:
The ‘Squad’ faces its first test
Lee is the first member of the progressive ‘Squad’ to face a primary challenge this cycle, and one of the first major poll tests on the impact of the Israel-Hamas war. But it may not be as formidable a challenge for Lee as it once might have seemed.
Lee was first elected last cycle after winning a contested Democratic primary where pro-Israel groups spent millions opposing her. But the same groups have Stayed out of your confrontation with Edgewood Borough Councilman Bhavini Patel this year, even as Israel’s invasion of Gaza loomed large over Democratic politics and Lee was among the first members of Congress to call for a ceasefire.
There were still some external expenses. The moderate PAC, which had the support of Republican megadonor Jeff Yass, spent about $570,000 opposing Lee, with some of the ads accusing her of insufficiently supporting Biden. But most of that spending came earlier this spring — the group lost just $6,000 over the past two weeks, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact, perhaps a sign that the race isn’t as competitive as the group. I thought it was.
Lee was accompanied by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (DN.Y.) as she campaigned in Pittsburgh last weekend. A victory would be a victory for progressives in Congress. But other members of the ‘Squad,’ like Reps. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) and Jamaal Bowman (DN.Y.), will still face tougher tests in the future.
Republicans choose their candidates for important congressional races
Republicans will choose their candidate to face Rep. Susan Wild (D-Pa.) in the competitive 7th Congressional District, which includes Allentown and Lehigh Valley. Wild won by two points in 2022, a good year for Pennsylvania Democrats.
She faces three potential challengers: state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, National Guard veteran Kevin Dellicker and Maria Montero, who worked in former Republican Gov. Tom Corbett’s administration. Dellicker had a slight financial advantage in the race, but whoever wins the primary will have a lot of catching up to do in terms of money, as Wild reported $2.6 million in cash on hand earlier this month.
As Republicans look to maintain control in the House, they are also keeping an eye on Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District, where Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) faces a challenge from anti-abortion activist Mark Houck.
The 1st Congressional District includes all of Bucks County and a slice of neighboring Montgomery County. But the incumbent’s brand is strong in the district won by Biden: Fitzpatrick — a moderate who was preceded in the seat by his brother Mike — won by nearly 10 points two years ago. If Houck were to defeat him, however, it would open the door for Democrats to flip the district. Democrat Ashley Ehasz, who Fitzpatrick defeated in 2022, is running again this year.
Fitzpatrick has easily defeated right-wing primary opponents multiple times, and it’s unclear whether Houck has a better path to an upset even after Democrats tried to intrude in primary. But Republicans will breathe a little easier once Fitzpatrick secures the nomination.
Democrats will also choose their candidate against Republican Rep. Scott Perry, who was re-elected by 8 points in 2022. Perry, who has close ties to Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election, represents a central Pennsylvania district that then- president narrowly won. year.
There are six Democrats on the ballot, but the leading candidates appear to be former local TV news anchor Janelle Stelson, Marine Corps veteran Mike O’Brien and Harrisburg City Councilwoman Shamaine Daniels, who lost to Perry two years ago.
Presidential protest votes?
Pennsylvania is the largest and most important presidential swing state — so even though Biden and Trump gathered far more than the number of delegates needed to secure their respective nominations, the state’s presidential primaries are worth watching.
Both parties have zombie candidates – those who have suspended their campaigns but have already secured access to the polls in future states – on the ballot.
On the Republican side, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley is the only alternative to Trump. As in other post-Super Tuesday states voting after she ended her campaign, a strong performance by Haley in places like the Philadelphia suburbs could be a warning sign about Trump’s ability to win back voters he lost in his 2020 defeat.
The Democratic race won’t be that interesting. Unlike some other states, Pennsylvania does not have the “uncommitted” ballot line — which has become a popular protest vote for those who disapprove of Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war. And the only other candidate on the ballot, Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), broadly shares Biden’s policies and voted in favor of aid to Israel last week when it came before the House.
Clashes with attorneys general
Perhaps the most competitive race in Pennsylvania on Tuesday is the Democratic race for state attorney general. The position is the only statewide position without an incumbent this year. And it’s notable that former Pennsylvania attorneys general have a pattern of becoming governor — just look at current governor Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, or Corbett, a Republican.
Five Democrats are vying for the party’s nomination. State Rep. Jared Solomon of Philadelphia and Delaware County District Attorney Jack Stollsteimer are the two who have raised enough money to run TV ads. Both praised his support for abortion rights. Also in the race are former state auditor general Eugene DePasquale, former Bucks County attorney Joe Khan and Keir Bradford-Grey, the former chief public defender in Philadelphia.
The Republican race is a battle between state Rep. Craig Williams of Delaware County and York County District Attorney Dave Sunday. Both took a tough-on-crime approach, with Williams leading a Republican legislative effort to impeach Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner, which passed the state House but was rejected by the Senate. Sunday, who is endorsed by the state Republican Party, touted a drop in gun violence in York County during his tenure.
The Northeast Philadelphia Primary and the Democrats’ Dilemma
State Rep. Kevin Boyle, a Democrat from Northeast Philadelphia, faces a primary challenge on Tuesday. His whereabouts have also been publicly unknown since last week, after police issued a warrant for his arrest, accusing him of violating a protection from abuse order. What warrant was withdrawn on Monday.
Boyle – who has spoken openly about his mental health challenges in the past and whose family has expressed concern for his well-being – could miss the primary. Democrats recruited a challenger, Sean Dougherty, earlier this year after an incident in which Boyle was caught on video yelling at restaurant employees. Dougherty is a former assistant public defender who, like Boyle, comes from a well-known Pennsylvania political family.
But there is a lingering problem for Democrats, even if Boyle loses the primary. The party currently holds a two-seat majority in the lower house. That’s likely to come down to a one-seat advantage after a special election also held Tuesday in the Republican-leaning 139th House District.
Democrats have already used proxy voting to vote on Boyle’s behalf using a permanent designation of his, even though his whereabouts are unclear. (The math gets complicated because another Republican member is currently on leave from the House while stationed overseas.)
But this process, criticized by Republicans, will become less sustainable over time. Democrats have suggested creating an inquiry into Boyle’s fitness to serve, which could lead to his eventual expulsion. But regardless, it creates a difficult situation in the closely divided chamber — and focuses even more attention on Tuesday’s contest.
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