Voters continue to rank President Joe Bidenage and former president donald trumpNBC’s legal troubles are the most compelling reasons to oppose them in November, according to new data from NBC News’ latest national poll.
Respondents to the recent survey, conducted April 12-16, were asked about three potential vulnerabilities for each candidate ahead of the fall elections.
For Biden, the idea that “he may not have the necessary physical and mental health to be president for a second term” was the most convincing reason for 23% of registered voters. Another 17% of registered voters said their main complaint against Biden was that “millions of immigrants crossed our border illegally” during his presidency, and 16% chose the message about inflation reaching a “40-year high, making it difficult to take home.” pay to match the price increase.” Another 15% said “all of these” were more convincing.
For Trump, 20% of registered voters said the most compelling reason to oppose him was that he “faces four separate criminal and civil trials for alleged wrongdoing, including multiple criminal charges related to attempts to overturn the 2020 election.”
Another 14% said Trump “gets credit for his Supreme Court nominees taking away women’s right to abortion” and 8% chose that he “wants to pardon those convicted of storming the Capitol on January 6.”
But there was a significant difference between respondents who said neither of these messages was the most convincing: for Trump, 40% of registered voters chose that option, while 28% chose it for Biden.
An analysis of the numbers suggests they result from Republicans being less willing to recognize any of Trump’s vulnerabilities than Democrats are to recognize Biden’s weaknesses (even as Democrats prepare almost in lockstep to vote for him in November).
Seventy-two percent of Republicans chose “none” of Trump’s potential vulnerabilities, compared with 34% of independents and 8% of Democrats.
By comparison, 54% of Democrats chose “none” of Biden’s potential vulnerabilities, compared with 21% of independents and 4% of Republicans.
Put another way, just 25% of Republicans said there was a compelling reason to consider voting against Trump, compared to 42% of Democrats who support Biden.
It’s indicative of how both parties approach their nominees, said Jeff Horwitt, the Democratic pollster who conducted the NBC News poll with Republican pollster Bill McInturff.
“Both parties suffer from two different illnesses,” he said. “While Democrats look inward and worry about what they see, Republicans are more willing to ignore the really important issues — from my point of view — of their candidate.”
Still, there is evidence that these partisans see the issue as an exercise in reflection rather than one that makes any meaningful difference in how they will vote. Fully 92% of Democrats in the NBC News poll say they would vote for Biden head-to-head against Trump, and 96% of Republicans say they would support Trump.
Given the opportunity to support an independent or third-party candidate, 80% of Democrats side with Biden and 76% of Republicans side with Trump.
But these messages can cloud the mindset of independents, 34% of whom say they will support a candidate other than the two major party nominees, as well as voters who support candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West or Jill Stein. Voters who support these other candidates say they are more likely to change their mind before November.
Among independents, the largest group chose Biden’s mental and physical health as the top negative for Biden (29%), while a plurality (34%) chose “none” of the negatives for Trump.
Among those who support third-party or independent candidates, 35% pointed to Biden’s physical and mental health and 26% chose the inflation message. Regarding Trump, 26% of them chose his judgments, and 25% chose the message about him being credited with overturning Roe v. Wade. Wade, but 28% said none of the messages were convincing.
How those voters respond to those messages over the next six months could be key to deciding the election, Horwitt said.
“How can these two candidates appeal to people who, right now, are turned off by both of them?” he asked. “You could argue that concerns about the other candidate are so great that it is no longer [a choice between] two evils – is there a lesser of two evils?”
The NBC News poll of 1,000 registered voters nationwide — 891 reached via cellphone — was conducted April 12-16 and has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
This article was originally published in NBCNews. with
