Welcome to the online version of From the Policy Deska nightly newsletter that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News politics team on the campaign, the White House and Capitol Hill.
In today’s edition, national political reporter Bridget Bowman looks at how four House Republicans who voted to remove Kevin McCarthy as speaker of the House are now facing primary challenges. Plus, senior political editor Mark Murray explains how voters have a more optimistic view of Donald Trump’s presidency than Joe Biden’s.
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Gaetz becomes the latest McCarthy defector to draw a main challenger
By Bridget Bowman
The decision, almost seven months ago, to remove Kevin McCarthy as speaker of the House has already had lasting implications on Capitol Hill. Now that movement is reaching the campaign trail, hovering over several primaries that could help shape the GOP’s future in the House.
Florida Representative Matt Gaetz became the last House Republican to vote to remove McCarthy to attract a primary challenger. Aaron Dimmock, former Navy aviator, according to the Pensacola Newspaperfiled to run against Gaetz on Friday, just before the deadline to enter the race.
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Gaetz, McCarthy’s chief agitator, wasted no time trying to link Dimmock to the California Republican, posting on X that McCarthy “would have a puppet of his to command.”
Gaetz also said in a statement to NBC News, “I’m excited to welcome Missouri-based DEI instructor Aaron Dimmock to the campaign. Aaron is no longer in Kansas City. This is Trump country. Our pronouns are USA and MAGA.”
Dimmock did not respond to a request for comment. Although he put a Florida address on his campaign filing, the form of identification was listed as a Missouri driver’s license.
Of the eight House Republicans who voted to remove McCarthy last year, six are seeking re-election. And four of them now face primary challengers: Reps. Nancy Mace of South Carolina, Bob Good of Virginia, Eli Crane of Arizona and Gaetz. All four seats are in Republican territory, so the winner of the primary will be the favorite in the general election.
Earlier this month, an outside group linked to a McCarthy ally rose on the airwaves with ads targeting Mace, Good and Crane. Gaetz and Crane will not face their primaries until late summer, while Mace and Good will have their primaries in mid-June.
They’re not the only incumbents facing primaries this year. Gaetz himself has supported challengers seeking to unseat his own Republican colleagues, endorsing Republicans running against congressmen. Tony Gonzales from Texas and William Timmons from South Carolina. He also endorsed former state senator Darren Baileywho lost a primary race against Rep. Mike Bost of Illinois last month.
It is not uncommon for more centrist lawmakers like Gonzales to face primary opponents from the right. But the fact that some far-right Republicans also face intraparty opposition shows that the Republican establishment is gearing up for a fight over the direction of the party.
And neither side is backing down.
These are the poll numbers that should worry Biden most
By Mark Murray
Recent 2024 polls have been all over the place. But taken together, they still confirm how competitive – and relatively stable – the dispute between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump continues with almost six months until Election Day.
CNN latest national survey found Trump with a 6-point lead (although still within the margin of error). NBC News Poll had Trump ahead by 2 points, while Marist had Biden leading by 3 points (both within the margin of error). And research on Quinnipiac University and the Pew Research Center it essentially showed a tied race.
And the battleground of state polls — especially in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – is equally close.
Regardless of which poll you choose, the new polls underscore that voters continue to have better memories of Trump’s presidency than Biden’s presidency — and that should perhaps worry Biden’s re-election campaign more than any horse race result. around.
Take the CNN poll, for example, which finds 55% of Americans said Trump’s presidency was a success, compared to 39% who said the same about Biden’s presidency.
More surprisingly, 61% in the CNN poll believe Biden’s presidency was a failure, compared to 44% who say the same about Trump’s presidency.
Or look at last week’s NBC News national poll, which showed Trump maintains a 7-point lead over which candidate had the greater record of accomplishments (46% of voters chose Trump, while 39% chose Biden).
Or consider the Pew survey, which found 42% of voters said Trump was a good or great president, compared to 28% who said the same about Biden.
Or look at the CBS News Michigan battleground poll, which had Biden ahead by 2 points among likely voters in the state, but also showed 62% said the condition of Michigan’s economy under Trump was very or fairly good, compared to 38% who say the same of Michigan’s economy today.
The half-baked news for Biden is that he has a strong story to tell voters – with the unemployment rate at a historically low level and hundreds of thousands of jobs being created every month.
The Biden team could also remind voters about the millions of jobs lost during Trump’s final year as president when Covid wrecked the job market. Biden’s campaign TV ads displayed attacking Trump’s handling of the economy.
Still, voters consistently say they have positive perceptions about Trump’s presidency and cloudy views about Biden’s. This is more revealing than any horse racing research.
That’s all from The Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback – like or dislike – send us an email at newsletter@nbcuni.com
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