Fight over Arizona abortion ban shakes up GOP primaries

On Tuesday night, Arizona House Speaker Ben Toma found himself on the defense, fending off criticism that he could have stalled the effort to repeal the state’s near-total abortion ban, which dates back to 1864.

“I’d like to see how you stop this in the Senate on Wednesday,” the Republican joked to Republican state Sen. Anthony Kern, less than 24 hours before the state Senate took over and finally passed, a measure to repeal the Civil War-era ban. The state House approved the project last week.

But Toma and Kern weren’t facing off at the state Capitol. Instead, they were at odds in a Republican primary debate in Arizona’s ruby-red 8th Congressional District.

The Arizona Supreme Court’s bombshell ruling last month that a 160-year-old abortion ban is enforceable has added another layer to a tight, competitive race that will shed light on where the party’s core base lies in a key battleground state. battle.

As Republicans at the national and state level grapple with the potential consequences of this issue this year, the party’s candidates in this Phoenix-area district are embracing one of the strictest abortion bans in the country ahead of this summer’s primaries.

“I’m 100% pro-life,” Toma said after expressing support for a federal abortion ban. “I think recent events at the state Capitol have made my position on this issue very clear. So I don’t really have much else to say.”

It remains unclear whether Toma’s position in the spotlight over the state’s abortion ban could elevate him in the primary and ultimately help send him to Congress. The miscarriage only happened at 42 minutes of an hour Arizona PBS debateand some Republican strategists in the state say issues like border security and voting rights are higher priorities for GOP primary voters.

But when congressional candidates described themselves as “pro-life” on Tuesday, it became clear that support for the abortion ban — not the repeal effort — is a political advantage rather than a disadvantage in this deeply conservative district. .

Looming controversies

Even before the Arizona State Supreme Court ruled to reinstate the ban — a law that could send a doctor to prison for performing an abortion — there were several controversies hovering over the Republican primary race in the 8th District.

A former congressman forced to resign due to a surrogacy scandal. A former candidate for state attorney general who lost two years ago by just 280 votes — and who continues to hold on to the election, was robbed of him. A state senator and “fake voter” during the 2020 election race who was indicted on charges related to his efforts to try to overturn that election. A candidate who lost a high-profile race for U.S. Senate in 2022. And Toma, who led the charge against the repeal of the highly publicized abortion ban.

The 8th District — in the northwest valley of the Phoenix metro area, with an elderly and retired population and a large share of evangelical Christians — is solidly Republican. The winner of the July 30 primary will almost certainly defeat presumptive Democratic nominee Greg Whitten in November. As a result, the crowded field of conservatives has not had to litigate the broader issue of reproductive rights in the way that national and state Republicans in Arizona have been forced to do so.

“They’re all pretty much on the same page,” said Phoenix-based Republican strategist Barrett Marson, referring to the Republican camp’s collective views on abortion. “This district is probably pretty pro-life.”

The debate over repeal “will not be an issue in this district because everyone is in favor of the ban,” he said.

“It doesn’t even seem like abortion is the main issue they’re fighting for,” added a Republican operative in the state. “They are fighting over who is the establishment candidate and who is tougher on the border.”

This dynamic subsequently allowed candidates to wrestle with a host of other contentious issues that helped make Arizona the center of 2024 politics, including their MAGA credentials, endorsements and border issues.

Toma remained vehemently opposed to the legislative effort to repeal the near-total ban on abortion, a position several state strategists said suggested he was seeking to carve out a path to appeal to social conservatives in the crowded field. He even filed a brief in the case defending the 1864 law and twice used his power in legislative sessions last month to kill a repeal bill on procedural grounds.

A spokesperson for Toma’s campaign did not respond to questions. In plenary proceedings over the past three weeks, Toma spoke with passion and emotion about his stance against repealing the ban.

“I ask everyone in this House to respect the fact that some of us believe that abortion is, in fact, the murder of children,” he said during an April 17 session, during which House Republicans blocked a vote on the repeal of the law. the second time in two weeks. (The following week, state lawmakers were able to pass the repeal after three Republicans joined all 29 Democrats in the House.)

Tom was endorsed by Rep. Debbie Lesko, R-Ariz, who announced in October that she was retiring after representing the 8th District for six years, as well as former Republican Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer and former Sen. Jon Kyl, R- Ariz.

Battle over ties with Trump

Meanwhile, the two candidates considered the frontrunners in the race — Blake Masters, a financier who lost his bid for U.S. Senate in 2022, and Abraham Hamadeh, who lost the race for state attorney general in 2022 by just 280 votes and made claims that race was stolen from him, a centerpiece of his current campaign – he barely mentioned the abortion ban.

Instead, the two appear to be arguing over who remains closest to former President Donald Trump and his MAGA brand. Hamadeh beat Trump endorsementa fact he frequently notes.

“It’s probably the most significant endorsement in a Republican primary,” said Constantin Querard, an Arizona-based political strategist who is not working with either campaign in the race but has worked for Toma and Kern’s legislative campaigns.

“That dominates Abe’s messaging,” he added. “Obviously they recognize this as significant. Especially in a crowded primary, [when] you’re trying to figure out how to get to 30% first, you can see why he might focus so entirely on that message.” (In a field with six candidates, the winner probably wins the race with just a plurality of votes.)

But Masters, who received Trump’s support during his Senate run two years ago, he said in his first cable TV ad last month, he was an “America First fighter” who would “support Trump 100%.”

Responding to questions from NBC News, a spokesperson for Hamadeh’s campaign referred to comments the candidate made to the conservative media outlet. Newsmax last month called the state Supreme Court decision “a complete victory for Democrats” because “it was not being enforced” by state officials.” He added that he believes “the effects” of the reinstated 1864 prohibition “will not really be that significant.”

A spokesperson for the Masters campaign did not respond to questions. Masters told the Arizona Republic, in response to questions about his stance on the 1864 law, “I am proud to be pro-life and I make no apologies for that.” Masters said during his failed 2022 Senate bid that he would support a national abortion ban similar to Arizona’s 1864 law.

Return attempt

While state strategists see Hamadeh, Masters and Toma as the top three contenders in the race, none were willing to totally disregard two other men in the race despite their enormous baggage.

One such candidate is Trent Franks, who served in Congress for 16 years before abruptly resigning in 2017, acknowledging at the time that he discussed surrogacy with two former staffers. Shortly after resigning, another allegation emerged that Franks offered an employee $5 million to have his child due to his family’s struggles with infertility.

The other candidate is Kern, who was among 18 Trump aides and allies indicted last month by an Arizona grand jury for their role in a broad effort to overturn Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory in the state.

The Franks, in particular, could end up gaining significant support. He is well known in the area after serving in Congress and remains closely connected to the region’s large evangelical community. Strategists, however, are still debating the impact of the surrogacy scandal seven years ago.

“I don’t think voters are too concerned about why he left office,” Querard said. “A long time has passed.”

On the other hand, Marson explained, “the problem is that every time you Google ‘Trent Franks’, his scandal is what comes up.”

Even if there is not much difference in the positions on abortion between the candidates, having a record to support that position could be important in a crowded primary with a strong concentration of evangelical voters.

“The advantage that Toma has — and Kern and Franks to some extent — is that Masters doesn’t have a lifetime voting history, Abe doesn’t have a lifetime voting history,” Querard said.