New Research Reveals U.S. Abortion Divide Comes Down to One Characteristic

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Across nearly every religion and in all but five states, a majority of Americans support at least some access to abortion. That’s a key finding from a massive new survey of 22,000 people from the Public Religion Research Institute.

But the survey’s most revealing insight is the group among which anti-abortion sentiment remains strongest: white Christian nationalists.

At the state level, the more prone to Christian nationalism, the less likely the PRRI will find support for abortion. Statistically, it’s Mississippi on one side and Oregon on the other. Not surprisingly, this spectrum also overlaps neatly with efforts to protect or eliminate access to abortion.

It’s a silent abyss, but one that speaks to the latent threat of white Christian nationalism that Democrats and more than a few Republicans have been reluctant to confront head-on.

“Clearly, the higher the Christian nationalism score among state residents, there is a clear link in terms of attitudes about abortion,” PRRI President Melissa Deckman told me this week before the data was publicly released. “It shows how clearly Christian nationalist influences are defining policy, and it’s really quite stark.”

Only 25% of those identified as Christian nationalists say abortion should be legal in all or most cases. White Christian nationalists were the most opposed to abortion, with only 29% supporting abortion. Hispanic Christian nationalists (34%) and black Christian nationalists (59%) were most supportive of abortion rights. Among those who completely rejected the tenets of Christian nationalism, the issue of abortion rights is almost unanimously supported (93%).

The DC Brief had already flagged the pernicious elements of Christian nationalism – specifically, white Christian nationalism – and their infiltration into US politics. The theology that the United States is a uniquely divine project that has its governance and piety intertwined and blessed has been used abundantly by some of the country’s most cynical political artists, and to great effect. A politician who can claim to be on a mission from God is not subject to the same level of fact-checking as someone who operates on mortal rationality.

In states with complete abortion bans, a surprising 53% of residents say they still support abortion rights in most or all cases. To put it bluntly: this aspect of democracy is not working and reveals a huge gap in our understanding of our neighbors.

The threat here is not just to reproductive rights, but also to the brand of the Republican Party for a generation. “I’m someone who studies Gen Z and I’m telling you, Gen Z women are not buying anything the Republican Party is currently selling. Part of this is tied to his stance on abortion and LGBT rights,” says Deckman.

Nationally, among all Americans, there is a whopping 50 point difference between Democrats and Republicans. A solid 86% of Democrats say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while just 36% of Republicans say the same. To say the parties are working from different playbooks is an understatement. They’re not even working with the same set of rules.

Abortion is becoming a defining issue this campaign season. In a recent interview with TIME, former President Donald Trump essentially confirmed a newfound nihilistic approach, in which he pledged to leave it entirely up to states to decide their own levels of abortion access and regulation. But his strongest supporters are applauding the repression in red states. Florida, for example, put into effect on Wednesday a ban about abortions at the six-week mark, ending its autonomous status as an abortion haven in the South. The next closest state Southerners can turn to for the procedure is Virginia.

However, as suggested in previous surveys and confirmed once again with PRRI data, there are only five states left where supporters of abortion rights are in the minority: North Dakota and South Dakota with 47%; Arkansas at 46%; and Idaho and Utah recording 45% support.

In the seven swing states expected to decide the presidential race – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – a collective 64% of residents say abortion should be legal in all or most cases. Even red states are seeing a whiff of goodwill toward abortion rights; 57% of residents say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, including 59% of women.

For decades, Democratic strategists have treated abortion as a third-rail issue. of a problem. Once Roe v. Wade fell, that is no longer the case. Members of most religious traditions now consider abortion to be part of the health care system that should be legal in most or all cases. Of the 16 distinct categories in the survey – including non-affiliates – only four show net majority disapproval of abortion rights. As expected, white evangelical Protestants top the list, with 72% saying abortion should be illegal in most or all cases. Latter-day Saints, or Mormons, follow with 69%, Hispanic Protestants say the same with 58% and Jehovah’s Witnesses weigh in at 54%.

But Jews, Catholics, mainline Protestants and Muslims are all fine, leaving the decision up to patients and their health care providers. This may explain why, when presented to voters, protection of the right to abortion has prevailed at the ballot box every time it has been placed there since the Dobbs decision. And that’s why, heading into the final push toward November, most Democrats have decided that abortion is not an inconvenient distraction best left on the shelf. White Christian nationalism and its noisy minority may now be the albatross of US policymaking, but it is also a very useful demagogue.

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