AP Decision Notes: What to expect from Indiana’s presidential and state primaries

WASHINGTON – The race for the White House is at the top of Tuesday’s polls in Indiana’s presidential and state primaries, but voters will also have to resolve more competitive races for governor, Congress and the state legislature.

President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump already have enough delegates to secure their respective parties’ presidential nominations and both won nearly every primary and caucus by overwhelming margins. Still, the presumptive nominees have faced continued protest votes in recent elections that will not disrupt their primary campaigns but have raised questions about voter discontent ahead of the November general election.

Biden is the only option in the Democratic primary, so Indiana voters will not be able to vote for another candidate or for “uncommitted.” In last week’s Pennsylvania primary, Biden won with about 88% of the vote, but write-in ballots accounted for nearly 6% of the vote, up from about 2% to 3% cast for write-in ballots in the last three Democratic presidential elections in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania. primaries. Progressive activists in the community organized a write-in vote campaign in favor of the “disengaged” in protest of the Biden administration’s stance on the war in Gaza.

Trump is the only active candidate in the Republican primaries, but the other option on the ballot, former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley, continued to receive a considerable share of the vote in recent elections, despite having suspended her campaign in early March. .She received nearly 17% of the vote in the April 23 Pennsylvania primary, which Trump still easily won with 83% of the vote.

Indiana is not expected to be competitive in the presidential election. Trump won the state twice with 57% of the vote. In the last 21 presidential elections, only two Democrats have won Indiana: Lyndon Johnson in 1964 and Barack Obama in 2008

Also on Tuesday, Indiana voters will decide a crowded six-candidate Republican primary to replace term-limited Republican Gov. Eric Holcomb. The field includes first-term U.S. Senator Mike Braun, who has Trump’s support, former state Commerce Secretary Brad Chambers, Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, former state economic official Eric Doden, former state Attorney General Curtis Hill and conservative activist Jamie Reitenour.

With Braun running for governor, Republicans have rallied behind U.S. Rep. Jim Banks to replace him in the U.S. Senate. His Democratic opponent in November will be former state representative and trade association executive Marc Carmichael or psychologist Valerie McCray.

The most notable of the U.S. House races on Tuesday are the competitive Republican primaries in the 3rd Congressional District, which Banks is dropping out to run for Senate, as well as the 5th, 6th and 8th Districts.

Half of Indiana’s 50 state Senate seats and all 100 state House seats are also up for election this year.

Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday:

Indiana’s presidential and state primaries will be held on Tuesday. The last polls close at 7pm ET, although most polls close at 6pm ET. Indiana is in the Eastern and Central time zones.

The Associated Press will release vote totals for the Republican presidential primary, as well as 57 contested primaries for governor, U.S. Senate, U.S. House, state Senate and state House. Trump and Haley will appear on the Republican presidential ballot. Vote totals will not be released for the Democratic presidential primary, in which Biden is running uncontested. There is no “uncommitted” or written option on any of the ballots.

Indiana has an open primary system, meaning any registered voter can participate in either party’s primary.

Indiana’s 79 pledged Democratic delegates are allocated according to standard national party rules. Since Biden is the only option on the ballot, he will win all 79 delegates.

There are 58 delegates at stake in the Republican presidential primary. Thirty-eight delegates will be awarded to the winner of the statewide vote. Twenty-seven delegates will be allocated according to the vote in each of the state’s nine electoral districts. The top vote-getter in a congressional district will receive three delegates from that district.

In the Democratic presidential primary, Biden is the only option at the polls and will be declared the winner once all polls are closed in the state. In the Republican primaries, Trump is the expected winner as he is the only active candidate on the ballot. Early signs that he is winning statewide at a level consistent with the overwhelming margins seen in most other competitions held this year could be enough to declare him the winner. If there is an anti-Trump protest vote in favor of Haley, it will likely be anchored in the state’s most Democratic-friendly counties, Marion, where Indianapolis is located, and Lake, where Gary is located. He could also do well in the three other counties Biden carried in 2020: St. Joseph (home of South Bend), Tippecanoe (home of Lafayette) and Monroe (home of Bloomington).

In the gubernatorial race, Braun has the most recent history of winning a high-profile statewide Republican primary with his 2018 victory over then-U.S. Reps. Todd Rokita and Luke Messer. In that contest, Braun had a margin of victory of 11 percentage points over Rokita, although well below the 50% mark. Braun occupied about two-thirds of the state’s 92 counties, including the most populous Marion County. Rokita narrowly carried Lake County and parts of western Indiana. Messer transported much of southeastern Indiana. Trump won nearly every county in the contested 2016 presidential primary as well as two general elections, so his support will likely give Braun a boost.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it is determined that there is no scenario that would allow trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race is not called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or victory declarations. In doing so, the AP will make it clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

There is no automatic recount in Indiana, but the losing candidate can request and pay for a recount regardless of the vote margin. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine that the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the result.

As of September, there were about 4.7 million registered voters in Indiana. The state does not register voters by party.

In the 2022 US Senate primaries, turnout was 4% of the approximately 4.7 million registered voters in the Democratic primary and 8% in the Republican primary. About 27% of the votes in that election were cast before Election Day.

As of Thursday, more than 137,000 votes had been cast before Election Day, about 74% in person and about 26% by mail. The state does not break down early voting by party, although we know that nearly two-thirds of requested absentee votes were for the Republican primary.

In the 2022 congressional primaries, AP first reported the results at about 6:11 p.m. ET, or 11 minutes after polls closed in most of the state and 49 minutes before the last polls closed. Election night counting ended at 10:22 pm ET, with about 99.9% of the total votes counted.

As of Tuesday, there will be 69 days until the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, 104 days until the Democratic National Convention in Chicago and 182 days until the November general election.

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