It couldn’t be closer.
Six months before election day, President Joe Biden It is former president Donald Trump are tied at 37%-37% in an exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll, while millions of American votes remain up for grabs.
Although the country’s fierce polarization has imprinted many political preferences, 1 in 4 registered voters (24%) say they may change their mind before the November elections, and 12% have not yet made a choice. The new survey provides a roadmap of the most open-to-appeal persuaders in a campaign that is being shaped by sharp divisions over abortion and immigration, as well as an unprecedented criminal trial of a former president now underway in New York.
What’s more, 8% now support Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and another 5% supporting other third-party competitors. Most of his supporters recognize that they can change allegiance before voting.
Tiffany Batton, 43, an independent from Chicago who was among those interviewed, plans to vote for Biden. “He inherited a lot of problems from the last government,” said the social worker in a telephone interview. “I feel like, if he had a chance, he could fulfill some of those campaign promises if he had four more years.”
But she may change her mind, depending what happens in the Middle East and elsewhere. “The war in Israel has weighed heavily on me,” she said.
Brett Watchom, 36, a Denver clerk who is also an independent, supports Kennedy, attracted by his stance on housing and because he is “the only one not part of the horrible one-party machine.”
He admitted he could change his support “if the Libertarian candidate ends up being better.”
The survey of a thousand registered voters, carried out by landline and cell phone from Tuesday to Friday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Candidates have limited time to present their case.
“When we think about the race being tied with just 26 weeks to go, we have to consider that people ignore politics and party conventions in July and August,” said David Paleologos, director of the Center for Political Research at Suffolk University. “That leaves just 17 weeks for candidates to actively campaign, and it’s actually 13 or 14 weeks when you consider states where early voting begins weeks before Election Day.
“We’re basically at the doorstep of the election and the outcome is a coin toss.”
Biden wins among black voters, Trump loses among young voters
The new poll shows that Biden’s position compared to Trump is improving inch by inch, although within the poll’s margin of error.
In the USA TODAY/Suffolk poll conducted in January, Biden trailed Trump by 3 points – 34%-37% – and in March he trailed Trump by 2.38%-40%. Now they are tied.
Since the beginning of the year, Biden has gained ground among some key voters, while Trump has lost it.
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Among voters under 35, Biden has gained 1 percentage point and Trump has lost 12 since the January poll. Biden now holds the lead, 34%-25%, although it is not the overwhelming one he had in the 2020 election.
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Among Hispanic voters, support for Biden remained the same, but Trump lost 11 points. Biden now leads 34% to 28%, still short of the 2-1 advantage he had in 2020.
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Among independents, Biden gained 5 points and Trump lost 4. Now the two are essentially tied, with Trump at 27% and Biden at 26%. Almost the same number, 22%, are undecided and 23% support third-party candidates.
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Among black voters, Biden has gained 7 points since January, while Trump’s position has not changed. They now support Biden by 64%-12% – better than before, although still far short of the 87% who voted for him in 2020.
The White House recently announced policy decisions and aired political ads that have particular appeal to some younger undecided voters, including measures to ease federal regulation of marijuana and alleviate some college student debt. This month, Biden is scheduled to deliver the commencement address at Morehouse College, a historically black school.
Who is at stake? Young voters, Hispanic voters, independents and RFK supporters
The strength of third-party candidates can be built on sand.
Eight in ten Kennedy supporters say they may change their mind before voting. The same happens with 88% of those who support Independent Cornel West65% of those who plan to support the Libertarian candidate and 58% support Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
Typically, support for third-party candidates wanes as Election Day approaches, although in close elections the impact of attracting just thousands of voters in swing states can change the outcome of the election.
In 2016, the Green Party candidate won votes from Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, crucial states that she ended up losing. In 2020, the libertarian candidate attracted Trump voters in Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia, critical states she lost.
“I’m leaning toward Joe Biden, and I’ll tell you why: I look at his record on the economy,” said Al Wilson, 56, an independent from Shelby, Michigan, who works as a production manager for an automaker. . He credits the president with restoring the economy following the COVID-19 pandemic.
He also cites Biden’s presidential “behavior,” implicitly contrasting it with Trump’s. “We need leadership that isn’t always in the news cycle,” he said. “I get tired of it. I don’t want to hear it. I don’t want to hear controversy. I don’t want you involved in controversy all the time.”
Other undecided voters also say they may change their minds before November, including 43% of independents. Nearly half of independent women, 47%, are open to persuasion, one of the reasons Biden’s campaign has focused so heavily on abortion access as an issue.
Some groups that Democrats rely on in national elections say their minds aren’t firm. This includes 37% of Hispanic voters, 27% of black voters and 44% of voters under 35.
More than two-thirds of respondents (69%) say the country is “on the wrong path”; less than 1 in 4 (23%) say they are “heading in the right direction.” That’s slightly less positive than the country’s mood in the March survey.
“I haven’t made up my mind yet,” said Emily Weller, 39, a Republican from Indianapolis. “I wouldn’t vote for former President Trump; I don’t think I would vote for President Biden,” said the housewife. “My vote is important to me and I want to vote, but it’s not definitive.”
‘Everything was better under Trump’
Then there are those voters who are definitely not in play.
Those who now support Biden say, by 84%-14%, their minds are firmly made up. Trump supporters are set by an equally wide range of 83% to 16%.
“Everything was better with Trump,” said Mike McCombs, 67, a Republican and independent insurance agent from Lincolnton, Georgia. “The economy was better. Fuel prices were better. Biden choked the middle class to death.”
Trump’s conviction in his current trial on charges related to paying hush money to a porn star would not change his mind. “That would probably make me support him more, because this is a fraudulent trial anyway,” he said.
Both major party candidates solidified their standing among their supporters. Now, 87% of Democrats support Biden, a 7-point increase since January; 84% of Republicans support Trump, an increase of 5 points.
A paltry 2% of Democrats and 1% of Republicans are crossing the aisle to support the presumptive nominee of the other major party.
“I liked the way he ran the country when he was president the first time,” said Stephen Harrison, 52, a small business owner and Trump supporter from Manhattan, Montana. “The economy is No. 1. He did a good job of keeping things running and open as best he could during the pandemic.
“The only thing that would change my mind is if he wasn’t on the ballot,” he said.
Francis Spitale, 60, a Democrat from Charleston, South Carolina, who cares for newborns, says his support for Biden is unwavering.
“Are all policies perfect?” she asked. “No. But I respect him as a good, decent human being who managed to accomplish more in two or three years than many other presidents have.”
She dismissed those who say Biden, at 81, is too old to serve another term.
“No one is saying the (Rolling) Stones are too old to play a show; Bruce Springsteen is there at 73,” she said. “If you are a productive person, you don’t need to skateboard and ski the slopes to be effective.”
This article originally appeared in USA TODAY: Biden and Trump tie 37%-37% as Hispanic, Black and younger voters shift
