The Biden-Netanyahu relationship is tense like never before. Can the two leaders advance?

WASHINGTON – WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have long had a complicated relationship, but they are running out of room to maneuver as their views on the Gaza war and their political futures diverge. are at stake.

Their ties hit a low point as Biden delays the delivery of heavy bombs to Israel – and warns that supplies of artillery and other weaponry could also be suspended if Netanyahu pushes ahead with a large-scale operation in the southern Gaza city of Rafah .

Netanyahu, for his part, ignores Biden’s warnings and promises to move forward, saying: “If we have to be alone, we will be alone.”

“If we need to, we will fight with our fingernails. But we have much more than nails,” he said.

Biden has long prided himself on being able to manage Netanyahu more with carrots than sticks. But the escalation of friction over the past seven months suggests his approach may have passed its expiration date.

With both men balancing an explosive situation in the Middle East with their own domestic political problems, Netanyahu has become increasingly resistant to Biden’s public charm offensives and private appeals, prompting a more assertive response from the president in recent weeks. .

“If they go to Rafah, I will not provide the weapons that have historically been used to deal with Rafah, to deal with the cities, that deal with this problem,” Biden said in an interview with CNN on Wednesday, laying out their growing differences. . with Netanyahu.

Still, Biden aides insist the president is unwilling to allow the U.S.-Israel relationship to truly fracture on his watch. They cite not only the political imperative – the majority of Americans support Israel – but also Biden’s personal history with the country and his belief in its right to defend itself.

The president’s aides, watching as pro-Palestine protests have roiled his party and college campuses that have been breeding grounds for Democratic voters, have mused for months that Biden could be the last classically pro-Israel Democrat in the White House.

His optimism about his ability to contain Netanyahu may be falling into the same trap that has troubled a long series of American presidents who have clashed with the Israeli leader over the decades.

White House national security spokesman John Kirby declined Thursday to say whether Biden briefed Netanyahu on his decision to suspend the shipment of 3,500 bombs when the leaders spoke earlier this week. But he said Biden was “direct and frank” with Netanyahu about his concerns.

Biden and Netanyahu have known each other since Biden was a young senator and Netanyahu was a senior official at the Israeli embassy in Washington.

They have been through difficult times before.

There were disagreements over Israel’s settlement construction in the West Bank during Barack Obama’s administration, when Biden was vice president. Later, Netanyahu vehemently opposed Biden’s push to revive the Iran nuclear deal sealed by Obama and annulled by Donald Trump. Netanyahu bristled at Biden urging him to ease tensions during Israel’s bloody 11-day war with Hamas in 2021.

The leaders spent more than a month earlier this year without speaking as Biden’s frustration with Netanyahu over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza grew.

The relationship remained viable despite differences between the center-left Democrat and the leader of the far-right coalition government in Israel’s history.

But with the Biden-Netanyahu relationship now under greater strain than ever, it’s unclear how the leaders will move forward.

Netanyahu is caught between public pressure for a hostage deal and hardliners in his coalition who want him to expand the Rafah invasion, despite global alarm over the damage it could cause to some 1.3 million Palestinians there. sheltered. He has made it clear that he will move forward with a Rafah operation with or without a hostage deal.

The Israeli leader vowed to destroy Hamas following the Oct. 7 attack in southern Israel in which 1,200 people were killed and around 250 were captured and taken hostage. But his public standing has since crumbled, as he faces pressure to find a way to a truce that will bring home the remaining hostages and the remains of the Israelites who died in captivity.

He has resisted an investigation into what led to the military and intelligence failures that led to the Hamas attack. At the same time, he still faces legal troubles, including a lengthy corruption trial in which he is accused of fraud and accepting bribes.

Netanyahu’s political survival may depend on the Rafah offensive. If he reaches a hostage deal that fails to win Rafah, radicals in his coalition have threatened to overthrow the government and trigger new elections at a time when opinion polls predict he will lose.

“To keep his partners on board and prevent them from bringing forward an election, in which Likud will be decimated and he will be removed from office, he needs to keep the myth of ‘total victory’ alive – and this is only possible by avoiding an agreement with Hamas,” wrote Anshel Pfeffer, columnist and author of a biography of Netanyahu, in the daily Haaretz.

Aviv Bushinsky, Netanyahu’s former spokesman and chief of staff, said the Israeli leader remains focused on the main objective of the war – defeating Hamas – due to concerns about his image and legacy.

He said Netanyahu had spent his career calling himself the “tough guy of terror.”

“He thinks this is how he will be remembered. He has been promising to defeat Hamas for a decade,” Bushinsky said. “If he doesn’t, in his opinion he will be remembered as the worst prime minister of all time.”

Biden, meanwhile, faces growing protests from young Americans, a segment of the electorate critical to his re-election. And he faced backlash from Muslim Americans, a key voting bloc in the battleground state of Michigan. Some threatened to withhold votes from him in November to protest his administration’s handling of the war.

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, a Biden ally who is frustrated with the administration’s handling of the war, said Thursday that Biden should go further and halt the delivery of all offensive weaponry to Israel.

“The United States supports and must support its allies, but our allies must also defend the values ​​and laws of the United States of America,” Sanders said. “We must use all our influence to prevent the catastrophe in Gaza from becoming even worse.”

At the same time, Biden faces withering criticism from Republicans, including presumptive 2024 GOP presidential nominee Trump, who say his decision to withhold weapons is a betrayal of a key Middle East ally.

“What Biden is doing regarding Israel is shameful. If any Jew voted for Joe Biden, he should be ashamed of himself. He has totally abandoned Israel,” Trump told reporters on Thursday.

Idaho Sen. Jim Risch, the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said Biden’s action is “simply a nod to the left flank” that is delivering “a huge victory to Hamas.”

Friction between US and Israeli leaders is not unprecedented.

The relationship between President George HW Bush and Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir became tense when the Republican administration threatened to withhold $10 billion in aid to prevent further settlement activity in the West Bank. Obama and Netanyahu’s relationship was marked by mutual distrust regarding the Democrat’s effort to rekindle the peace process in the Middle East and forge the nuclear agreement with Iran.

“There were always alternative solutions if the heads of government really didn’t get along. We can get to that point,” said Elliot Abrams, a senior national security official in the George W. Bush administration. “But of course this could be a self-resolving type of problem, as one or both of them could step down” in a matter of months.

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AP writers Mary Clare Jalonick in Washington and Adriana Gomez Licon in Miami contributed reporting. Frankel reported from Jerusalem.