Donald Trump leads Joe Biden in five crucial battleground states, less than six months from Election Day, new research has shown.
Polls by the New York Times, the Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena College place the former president in Pennsylvania (three points), Arizona (seven), Michigan (seven), Georgia (10) and Nevada (12). Biden led by two points in Wisconsin.
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All leads except Trump’s in Georgia and Nevada were within the margin of error.
As the poll reverberated across the political scene, the Biden campaign issued a statement from Geoff Garin, a Democratic pollster.
“The only consistency in recent public polls is inconsistency,” Garin said.
“These results need to be compared with the 30-plus polls that show Biden surging and winning — which is exactly why drawing broad conclusions about the race based on one poll’s results is a mistake.”
Trump is currently on trial in New York City on 34 criminal charges stemming from hush-money payments to an adult film star who claimed to have an affair.
This is effectively an election interference trial. The former president also faces four federal charges and 10 state charges in Georgia for attempted electoral subversion and 40 federal charges relating to withholding confidential information.
Trump’s attempt to overturn Biden’s conclusive 2020 victory culminated in the deadly attack on Congress on January 6, 2021, by a mob he told to “fight like hell” for his cause.
Nine deaths were linked to the riot, including police suicides and more than 1,200 people were arrested, hundreds convicted and imprisoned, some for seditious conspiracy.
And yet, amid much concern from the electorate that, at 81, Biden is too old for a second term — even though Trump is only four years younger — the Times said “a yearning for change and discontent with the economy and the war in Gaza between young people, black people and people of color.” Hispanic voters threaten to undo the president’s Democratic coalition.”
Polls showed 20% support for Trump among black voters, which, if maintained in the election, would be the highest level of support for a Republican candidate since the civil rights era.
There was better news for Biden in the results obtained by people who described themselves as likely to vote, with the current president leading in Michigan and close behind in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Victories in these three states in November would likely be enough to keep Biden in the White House.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr, the third-party candidate seeking ballot access in all 50 states, even though he said he once had a brain worm linked to cognitive problems, polled around 10%, attracting Trump and Trump alike. Biden.
“The findings remain largely unchanged from the last series of Times/Siena polls in swing states in November,” the Times said, listing factors that could be considered likely to help Biden: the stock market gaining 25%, the start of Trump’s criminal trials and the Biden campaign’s heavy spending on decisive states.
But voters who spoke to the newspaper cited concerns about the cost of living and dissatisfaction with the social and political status quo as reasons for abandoning Biden for Trump.
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Notably, the newspaper reported that “nearly 70% of voters say the country’s political and economic systems need major changes – or even be demolished entirely.”
Abortion rights also emerge as a key campaign issue.
Trump boasted about his role in nominating three right-wingers to the US Supreme Court, resulting in the removal of federal abortion rights in 2022 with the overturning of Roe v Wade, the ruling that guaranteed them.
Democrats focused on the issue, winning a string of victories when abortion rights were on the ballot, even in Republican-run states.
In new polls, a household majority (64%) said that abortion should always or almost always be legal (a position shared by 44% of Trump voters). Polls also showed that voters prefer Biden to address abortion rights issues by 11 points.
But nearly 20% of respondents blamed Biden more than Trump for the downfall of Roe.
Garin said: “The reality is that many voters are not paying much attention to the elections and have not started to make decisions – a dynamic also reflected in today’s poll. These voters will decide this election and only the Biden campaign is doing the work to win them over.”
