Democrat Angela Alsobrooks will face former governor Larry Hogan in Maryland Senate race

Democrat Angela Alsobrooks will face former Republican governor Larry Hogan in the Maryland Senate race in November, setting up an unexpectedly competitive election in the reliably Democratic state. Republicans have a rare opportunity to win a Senate seat in Maryland, and the outcome of that race could determine control of the upper chamber in November.

Alsobrooks and Hogan won their parties’ Senate primaries on Tuesday as Maryland voters cast ballots in the presidential race as well as the congressional elections. Joe Biden and Donald Trump easily won the state’s primaries after already securing enough delegates to win their parties’ nominations.

Leaders from both parties closely watched the results of the Senate races as Sen. Ben Cardin’s retirement created an opening for Republicans to potentially win the seat thanks to Hogan’s late entry into the race. A Hogan victory would mark the first time a Republican has won a Senate election in Maryland since 1980 and could erase Democrats’ narrow majority in the chamber.

As expected, Hogan easily won the Republican primary, with the Associated Press calling the race less than an hour after polls closed. Alsobrooks faced a more competitive primary against Congressman Dave Trone, owner of the beverage chain Total Wine & More. Trone used his personal fortune to boost his Senate campaign; according to documents filed with the Federal Election Commission, he loaned at least $61.8 million to his campaign.

But that investment wasn’t enough to guarantee a victory, as the AP called the race for Alsobrooks about two hours after polls closed.

The Maryland Senate race has historic implications, as Alsobrooks would become the first Black person elected to represent Maryland in the Senate and only the third Black woman to serve in the House. But Alsobrooks’ victory is far from assured, as Hogan poses a formidable threat to Democrats’ hopes of retaining the seat. When Hogan stepped down last year, a poll conducted for Gonzales Research & Media Services showed that 77% of Marylanders, including a surprising 81% of Democrats, approved of the governor’s job performance.

Hogan’s candidacy will force Democrats to allocate resources to a Senate race they previously assumed would be an easy general election win. In 2020, Biden beat Trump by 33 points in Maryland, but Hogan also won his 2018 re-election race by 12 points. Polls on possible clashes in the general election have produced mixed results, but it is almost certain that both parties will have to spend heavily to compete in the state. The Cook Political Report currently quotes the Maryland Senate race as “Democrat likely.”

After the AP confirmed Hogan’s primary victory, the Senate Democrats’ campaign arm quickly released a new digital ad highlighting the former governor’s self-description as a “lifelong Republican.”

“Hogan said it himself,” said Amanda Sherman Baity, spokeswoman for the Democratic Senate campaign committee. “A vote for Republican Larry Hogan is a vote to hand the Senate over to Republicans so they can pass a national abortion ban and push the Republicans’ extreme policies forward. This is a disqualifying agenda for Maryland voters.”

Elsewhere in the state, the Democratic primary in Maryland’s 3rd Congressional District has become increasingly contentious in recent weeks after a Super Pac invested millions of dollars in the race. Of the 22 Democratic candidates running to replace retiring Congressman John Sarbanes, former U.S. Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn, who wrote a best-selling book about his experience protecting lawmakers during the 6/6 insurrection, Janeiro, has the highest national profile. But researches showed a tight race between him and state Sen. Sarah Elfreth, who won the support of the pro-Israel Super Pac United Democracy Project.

Dunn, a first-time candidate, proved to be a prodigious fundraiser, raising $4.6 million over the course of the election cycle. By comparison, Elfeth’s campaign raised just $1.5 million, but she received outside help from the UDP, which is affiliated with the American-Israeli Public Affairs Committee (Aipac). The UDP spent at least $4.2 million supporting Elfreth’s campaign, flooding the district with ads promoting his candidacy. Dunn turned UDP involvement in the election race into a campaign issue, framing “dark money spending” as corrosive to democratic principles.

The race to succeed Trone in representing Maryland’s sixth congressional district also attracted a large field of candidates. In the Democratic primary, former Biden administration official April McClain Delaney and state delegate Joe Vogel emerged as the frontrunners, while former state delegates Dan Cox and Neil Parrott were seen as most likely to win the Republican nomination. Of Maryland’s eight congressional districts, the sixth is seen as the most competitive for the general election, and Cook quotes the seat as “likely Democrat”.

While Biden and Trump have already secured their party’s nominations, Maryland’s presidential primary could still offer clues about the general election. Biden’s name appeared on his party’s ballot alongside those of Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips and self-help author Marianne Williamson, but Maryland Democrats also had the option of choosing “uncommitted to any presidential candidate.”

Mirroring similar efforts in states like Michigan, ceasefire advocates urged Maryland voters to vote for uncommitted protests against Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza. The Listen to Maryland campaign expects at least 15% of Democratic votes to have been reported as uncommitted, and they had reached hundreds of thousands of voters as of Tuesday.

In the Republican presidential primaries, only the names of Trump and former UN ambassador Nikki Haley appeared on the ballot. Although Haley dropped out of the race in March, she continued to gain votes in the following weeks, which was seen as a potential warning sign for Trump heading into the general election. In the Indiana primary held last week, Haley won nearly 22% of the Republican vote, and leaders of both parties will be watching for a similar result in Maryland.