By Jason Lange and James Oliphant
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Democrats are deeply divided over the president Joe BidenHis handling of the war in Gaza and the U.S. campus protests against it, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds, fraying the coalition he relied on four years ago to defeat Republicans. donald trump.
About 44% of registered Democratic voters who responded to the May 7-14 survey said they disapprove of Biden’s handling of the crisis. Democrats who disapproved of his response were less likely to say they would vote for Biden in the Nov. 5 election — no small concern given his heated rematch with Trump.
Biden has faced fierce criticism from some in his own party for continuing to supply arms to Israel despite more than 35,000 Palestinians having been killed in the country’s Gaza offensive. The offensive began after the October 7 attack, where Hamas militants killed 1,200 people and kidnapped another 252, according to Israeli records.
The flow of weapons continued even after Biden last week delayed a shipment of 2,000-pound (907-kg) bombs and 1,700 500-pound bombs to Israel over concerns they could be used for a major invasion of Rafah, a city in southern Gaza. .
Widespread campus protests, including some that ended in violence when university officials called police to clear the campus, undermined Biden’s 2020 campaign promise of a return to stability after Trump’s chaotic four years in office.
Trump, meanwhile, has worked to exploit the unrest over the issue, urging Jewish voters, young voters and others unhappy with Biden’s performance in the White House to turn over to him.
Overall, just 34% of registered voters approve of Biden’s handling of the war, including 53% of Democrats, 31% of independents and 22% of Republicans.
Anti-war demonstrations were not limited to college campuses, with protesters targeting Biden and other members of his administration at public events for months.
The survey, conducted online, interviewed 3,934 U.S. adults across the country, including 3,208 registered voters. It had margins of error of about 2 percentage points for responses from all registered voters, about 3 points for registered Republicans and Democrats, and about 4 points for independents.
“This issue is a complete defeat for Biden,” said Douglas Schoen, a pollster and strategist who analyzed the Reuters/Ipsos poll results. “He’s losing votes left, right and center.”
RFK FACTOR
Among registered Democrats who disapprove of Biden’s response to the conflict in Gaza, about 77% said they would vote for him in November, compared with about 93% of those who approved of his response in Gaza.
While these voters may not turn to Trump, they may choose not to vote or vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., whose independent campaign won the support of about 13% of registered voters in the poll.
Schoen said there is a high probability that the Gaza issue could inflict serious damage on Biden in Michigan, a key state with a large Arab-American population and where Kennedy is on the ballot.
Americans are also unsure of what U.S. policy toward Israel should be. When asked which party has the best policies, 39% of Democrats and 43% of independents said they didn’t know.
About 38% of registered Democrats say they support pro-Palestinian protests at U.S. universities and cities in Gaza, compared with 38% who said they do not. Registered Independents supported the protests by 58% to 23%, while Republicans overwhelmingly opposed the protests by 81% to 8%.
About 33% of Democrats agreed with the statement that the protests reflected an anti-Semitic view, while 37% disagreed. Around 45% of independents agreed with this statement and 30% disagreed. About 67% of Republicans agreed and 14% disagreed.
Trump has courted Jewish voters for years through efforts such as moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem. But he also criticized Jewish Democrats by suggesting they are disloyal to Israel.
Sam Markstein, political director of the Jewish Republican Coalition, pointed to exit polls that show his party’s share of the Jewish vote has increased since 2016 and said it will grow even more this year.
“This is not new. It’s a trend that has been in the making for a long time,” Markstein said.
Kenneth Wald, who studies the Jewish-American vote at the University of Florida, said he was skeptical that the conflict or protests would trigger a large-scale shift away from Democrats.
Secular Jews in particular, Wald said, are likely to remain aligned with Democrats if the alternative is Trump.
As for young voters, Wald said, “when the choice is between Trump and Biden, they will vote for Biden even if they are dissatisfied with the things he is doing.”
(Reporting by Jason Lange and James Oliphant; Editing by Scott Malone and Deepa Babington)
