What we know about the death toll in Gaza

TThe question of how many people have died in Gaza since Israel began a bombing and ground campaign in response to Hamas’ deadly Oct. 7 attack has taken on renewed urgency as President Biden tries to prevent an all-out Israeli attack on Hamas leadership and the remaining battalions to the densely populated city of Rafah. A recent decision by the United Nations to change the way it reported the death toll in Gaza created even more confusion, leading some to incorrectly claim that the UN had drastically reduced its estimate of the conflict’s death toll.

Although Biden has maintained his commitment to sell $1 billion in weapons and ammunition to Israel, he announced on May 8 that he would suspend a shipment of 2,000-pound bombs due to concerns about their potential use inside Rafah. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said this week that “it would be a mistake to launch a major military operation in the heart of Rafah that would put large numbers of civilians at risk without a clear strategic gain.” Israel in an effort to prevent large-scale bombing of the city. All of these actions reflect the growing concern within the US government about the number of civilians who have been killed in the conflict.

Here’s what we know about the death toll in Gaza and where these estimates come from.

How many people have been killed in Gaza since October 7th?

There is no independent source on the death toll in Gaza. The US says it does not keep its own death count in Gaza. Neither does the World Health Organization nor the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, both United Nations agencies that track deaths in war zones.

O United Nations published and credited third-party estimates of the number of people killed and wounded in the war. These include estimates that more than 34,900 Palestinians were killed in Gaza and more than 1,200 people in Israel.

The death toll in Gaza is based on information released by three Hamas-controlled entities: the Gaza Ministry of Health, the Gaza government’s media office, and the Palestinian Civil Defense, which provides emergency response. Critics question the UN’s use of estimates based on data from Hamas, an organization that has controlled Gaza since 2007 and is committed to the elimination of Israel. The numbers do not distinguish between civilians and combatants killed.

UN agencies have given several reasons to credit the numbers coming from Gaza.

The agencies cite more than a decade of “generally accurate” figures from the Gaza Health Ministry across multiple mass casualty conflicts. UN officials say the death list compiled by authorities in Gaza is used to issue death certificates, which in turn are used for property settlement and land ownership. This creates an incentive for the ministry to accurately confirm the identities of those who died, the UN says.

“Unfortunately, we have the sad experience of coordinating with the Ministry of Health on casualty figures every few years for major mass casualty incidents in Gaza; and in the past, their numbers have proven to be generally accurate,” said Farhan Haq, deputy spokesperson for UN Secretary-General António Guterres, on May 13 during a press conference with journalists.

The UN World Health Organization also credits data provided by the Gaza Health Ministry, WHO spokesman Christian Lindmeier told reporters in Geneva on May 14. Lindmeier said the WHO was informed by the Gaza Health Ministry that around 24,000 people killed had been formally identified. and around 10,000 remained missing and had not yet been identified. The WHO believes thousands of missing people may still be buried under rubble in active combat zones, Lindmeier said.

Both Israeli and American officials have stated that Hamas’ tactics, including the use of civilian facilities such as hospitals and schools for military purposes, contributed to the number of civilian deaths in the war.

Why has the UN reduced the number of deaths of women and children in Gaza?

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) caused confusion in early May when it changed the way it reported the number of women and children killed in Gaza.

For months, the agency regularly updated an estimate of the total number of deaths in Gaza and disaggregated that total by gender and age. These figures were based on information provided to the UN by three Hamas-controlled entities: the Gaza Ministry of Health, the Hamas government’s media office, and the Palestinian Civil Defense, which provides emergency response in Gaza.

On May 6, the UN agency published the latest estimate from the Gaza Ministry of Health that 14,500 children and 9,500 women had been killed. Two days later, OCHA reported a much smaller number of Palestinian women and children killed in the conflict, based on those who the Hamas-controlled Gaza Ministry of Health claimed were specifically identified by name. The new numbers were 7,797 children and 4,959 women killed and later identified.

OCHA did not change its overall estimate that more than 34,900 Palestinians died. This higher total includes those whose identities have been confirmed and an estimated 10,000 more dead who are missing and unaccounted for. OCHA chose to change the way it detailed deaths after it began receiving more detailed information about verified and identified victims from the Gaza Ministry of Health, an OCHA official said.

The changing numbers drew attention to the UN and US government’s continued reliance on Hamas-controlled entities for information about the conflict in Gaza.

“These numbers are having a profound influence on US politics,” says David Adesnik, senior fellow and director of research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Adesnik is skeptical of the Gaza Health Ministry’s methods, which rely on media reports to estimate how many are dead beyond those whose remains have been identified, and says Hamas-controlled entities “have demonstrated that they are willing to distort the truth.” The death toll has already shaped American foreign policy, Adesnik says. “There is strong evidence that the Biden administration’s reliance on the Gaza Health Ministry’s numbers is one of the main reasons it began to exert so much pressure on Israel,” says Adesnik.

How does the US government describe the death toll?

The US government cited the same figures that Hamas-controlled entities provided to the UN. During his March 7 State of the Union address, President Biden said that “more than 30,000 Palestinians have been killed – the majority of whom are not from Hamas.” Biden did not provide a source for that number, but the White House later confirmed it was based on figures from the Gaza Health Ministry.

The US government again relied on the same count in early May in a public State Department memo on whether US weapons are being used to violate international laws of war. “The Hamas-controlled Gaza Ministry of Health is the main source of these figures, which international organizations generally consider credible but do not differentiate between Hamas fighters and civilians,” the report reads.

How many of those killed in Gaza were Hamas fighters?

The US has been unable to independently verify how many Hamas fighters were killed in Gaza. The Israeli government said about half of those killed were fighters. Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu repeated this statement on May 12. “Call Me Back” Podcast Presented by former US government adviser Dan Senor, Netanyahu said around 30,000 people had been killed in Gaza since October 7, of which he said 14,000 were “combatants” and “around 16,000 civilians were killed.” . There has not yet been any independent confirmation of Israel’s estimates. Media outlets have cited Hamas officials estimating between 6,000 and 8,000 of its fighters were killed.

In war zones, the percentage of civilians killed can vary widely. Studies have shown that more civilians die during fighting in urban areas. In a UN Security Council report titled “Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflicts,” the UN examined the rate of civilian casualties in populated areas during conflicts in the year 2021. It found that 89 percent of deaths in urban areas were civilians. In urban areas that year, the civilian death rate fell to 10 percent.