Senate Republicans believe the party’s chances of maintaining their narrow majority in the chamber will sink or swim under former President Trump in November, while Democrats remain cautiously optimistic about winning back the chamber despite chaos at the GOP conference in Chamber last year.
Republican lawmakers have exuded confidence for months about the potential to win back the Senate in 2024, but the House is an entirely different matter. Members indicated they see this as a real contest, with Trump being the determining factor for good or bad.
“It depends on Donald Trump winning,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), a former member of the House. “The Chamber is closely linked to national waves and political cycles. If Donald Trump wins, it’s hard for me to imagine Republicans losing the House.”
“If Donald Trump doesn’t win, I think we could very well win the Senate and lose the House,” he added.
With less than six months to go until election day, the battle for the Chamber is on a knife’s edge. No matter which party emerges victorious, a Democratic or Republican majority will have another slim margin to deal with before the 119th Congress.
House Republicans are down to just a two-seat margin, having suffered a series of early retirements over the past year, in part due to dissatisfaction with the situation on Capitol Hill, as dysfunction has reigned since the GOP assumed the majority this year. past.
This helped turn the chamber into a jump ball.
“I would say it’s a toss-up,” Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (RW.Va.), who served seven terms in the House, told The Hill. “It’s unknown. I think it’s a real 50/50 kind of election, which indicates that something could tip the balance in the end.”
According to the latest rankings from the Cook Political Report, 210 seats are considered thin Republican or better, while 203 are considered thin for Democrats, leaving 22 seats in the toss-up category to determine control. These 22 seats are evenly split between the Republican Party and the Democrats, which further highlights how fierce the battle for control is right now.
But Republicans got a big boost this year in the form of redistricting. Although the party suffered some losses late in the cycle, it scored its biggest victory of all in North Carolina, where the evenly split delegation (7-7) is poised for a seismic shift that will see at least 10 seats controlled by the Republican Party. Next year.
Democrats also refused to go for the jugular in New York and ended up with only modest changes that could help determine the future of the lower house.
However, members on both sides are cautiously optimistic that their parties will achieve victory in the end.
“I think there is a way. … This is about execution,” said Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who agreed that Trump carries too much weight on his shoulders to push the House over the finish line for Republicans.
“There may be a little vote splitting, but if he performs well in those districts, then I think the House members will too,” Trump says.
Despite the redistricting defeats, Senate Democrats still feel a tailwind due in large part to the House GOP’s performance — or lack thereof — over the past year. The main attraction was the tumult that consumed the conference in the fall, when conservatives ousted former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), sending the chamber into a free fall that reverberated for months.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) was also questioned by some, led by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), after he worked with Democrats to introduce must-pass spending bills and a supplemental national security that delivered aid to Ukraine.
Democrats, who are also buoyed by a fundraising advantage, also believe their 2022 performance, which saw Trump be a drag on Republicans, will be maintained despite the boost the former president has given House Republican candidates. when he was on the ballot, including in 2020.
“It’s loud but cautious,” said Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.), who served eight terms in the House before winning his Senate seat in 2022. “It’s an incredible picture of dysfunction among House Republicans. If performance is relevant to voters’ decisions, we are in very good shape.”
“The $64 issue is about extreme manipulation and the nature of tribal politics, does it matter?” Welch said. “That’s a question we all always ask.
“We do not know. We’re just in a new world,” he continued.
Others, however, could not be more optimistic.
Sen. Ben Ray Luján (DN.M.), who led the House Democratic campaign arm in 2016 and 2018, told The Hill that his confidence level is now higher than it was in 2018. Democrats, of course, they flipped the House in style, winning 41 seats to end eight years in the minority.
“And in ’18, we did really well,” he added.
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