What will happen if Trump is convicted in a secret trial?

Thirty-four indictments, 12 jurors, an often exasperated judge and a parade of witnesses.

After nearly five weeks, both the prosecution and defense have rested on the story of Donald Trump defending hush money.

Final arguments will begin on Tuesday and then the jury will begin deliberations. After that, no one knows when they will return and what they will decide.

But if found guilty of a single charge – just one of a few possible outcomes – Trump would become the first former US president with a criminal conviction and the first major party candidate to run for the White House as a felon.

Here are some important questions to consider if a guilty verdict is handed down.

What happens to a guilty verdict?

Trump was free on bail throughout the trial. If the verdict is guilty, he will likely still be able to leave the courtroom a free man until Judge Juan Merchan schedules a sentencing hearing.

The judge has several factors to consider in sentencing, including Trump’s age (77), lack of prior conviction and possibly his violations of the court’s gag orders.

The sentence may involve a fine, probation or supervision, or possibly prison time.

Trump would almost certainly appeal a guilty verdict, a process that could take months or even longer.

His legal team would then face the Appellate Division in Manhattan and possibly the Court of Appeals.

All of this means that Trump would be highly unlikely to leave the courtroom in handcuffs and would be expected to remain free on bail while he appeals.

What would be the grounds for the appeal?

Evidence from adult film star Stormy Daniels, whose alleged sexual encounter with Trump is at the center of the case, may be one reason.

“The level of detail provided [by Ms Daniels] it’s not really necessary to tell the story,” said Anna Cominsky, a professor at New York Law School.

“On the one hand, her details give her credibility, and as a prosecutor, you want to provide enough details for the jury to believe what she has to say. On the other hand, there is a line where this can become irrelevant and harmful.”

Trump’s defense team twice asked for a mistrial during Daniels’ testimony, requests that were denied by the judge.

Could Trump go to prison?

It is possible, though highly unlikely, that Trump could serve time behind bars in the event of a guilty verdict.

The 34 charges he faces are all Class E felonies in New York, the lowest level in the state. Each charge carries a maximum sentence of four years.

There are several reasons why Judge Merchan could choose a lesser sentence, including Trump’s age, his lack of prior convictions and the fact that the charges involve a non-violent crime.

It is also possible that the judge will weigh the unprecedented nature of the case, perhaps opting to avoid putting a former president and current candidate behind bars.

There is also a question of practicality. Trump, like all former presidents, is entitled to lifetime Secret Service protection. This means that some agents would need to protect him in prison.

Even so, it would most likely be extremely difficult to manage a prison system with a former president as an inmate. It would be a huge security risk and expensive to keep secure.

“Prison systems care about two things: the security of the institution and keeping costs low,” said Justin Paperny, director of prison consulting firm White Collar Advice.

With Trump, “it would be a horror show…no director would allow that,” he said.

Could he still run for president?

Yes. The US Constitution establishes relatively few eligibility requirements for presidential candidates: they must be at least 35 years old, be “natural-born” US citizens and have lived in the US for at least 14 years. There are no rules that block candidates with criminal records.

But a guilty verdict could still influence November’s presidential elections. A poll from Bloomberg and Morning Consult earlier this year found that 53% of voters in key swing states would refuse to vote for the Republican if he were convicted.

Another poll, from Quinnipiac University this monthshowed that 6% of Trump voters would be less likely to vote for him – which has consequences in such a close race.

Could he forgive himself?

No. Presidents can grant pardons to those who have committed federal crimes. The New York secret money case is a state matter, which means it would be beyond Trump’s reach if he were to become president again.

The same applies to Trump’s case in Georgia, where he was accused of criminally conspiring to overturn President Joe Biden’s narrow defeat in the state during the 2020 election. is currently stuck on appeals.

Pardon powers are unclear for Trump’s two federal cases — one concerning alleged misuse of classified documents and another over conspiracy to overturn the 2020 election.

In the first, a Trump-appointed judge in Florida indefinitely postponed the trial, saying it would be “reckless” to set a date before resolving questions about evidence. The second pending federal case was also postponed while an appeal from Trump unfolded.

Neither is likely to occur before the November elections, but even if they did, constitutional scholars disagree about whether a president’s pardon power includes himself. Trump could be the first to try.

With reporting by Madeline Halpert and Kayla Epstein