The battle for the future of the Republican Party comes to Texas: From Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Policy Deska nightly newsletter that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News politics team on the campaign, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, Deputy Politics Editor Adam Wollner previews tonight’s primary runoff in Texas. Plus, national political correspondent Steve Kornacki breaks down what the polls show about how a guilty verdict in Donald Trump’s trial could alter the 2024 race.

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The battle for the future of the Republican Party comes to Texas

By Adam Wollner

Texas is hosting a runoff primary election today that will resolve intraparty disputes and shape the future of the Republican Party in a traditional conservative stronghold.

If no candidate surpasses the 50% threshold in the March primary, the top two vote-getters would advance to the runoff, meaning dozens of general election matchups will be officially set after tonight.

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The Republican Party congressman faces backlash from the right: So far, every member of Congress who has sought reelection this cycle has won their primary — with the exception of a Republican primary in Alabama that pitted two incumbents against each other after redistricting. Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales hopes to maintain that streak in Texas’ 23rd District as he faces pro-gun YouTuber Brandon Herrera, NBC News’ Alexandra Marquez reports.

Gonzales faced attacks from the right and was censured by the state Republican Party for voting in favor of a new gun law following the 2022 elementary school shooting in Uvalde, which is in his massive U.S.-Mexico border district, and for of its protection. -sexual marriage.

Herrera has proclaimed himself a “gun rights advocate” and an ally of former President Donald Trump, who did not support him in the primaries. Gonzales’ allies highlighted Herrera’s previous comments making light of veteran suicides and Nazi machine guns. Gonzales got 45% of the vote in March, while Herrera got 25%, but today’s race is still expected to be close.

There are a few other congressional primary runoff races worth watching. The race in Texas’ 12th District to replace Rep. Kay Granger has divided Republican Party loyalties, with Gov. Greg Abbott supporting state Rep. Craig Goldman and state Attorney General Ken Paxton lining up behind businessman John O’Shea .

And in the 28th District, retired Navy officer Jay Furman and rancher Lazaro Garza are competing for the chance to face Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar, who was indicted this month on federal bribery and money laundering charges. The parliamentarian denied any irregularities.

Paxton’s Revenge Tour: Later in the vote, Paxton’s main quest for revenge will come to an end as he tries to knock out the Republican state legislators who voted to impeach him last year.

Their main target is one of the most powerful Republicans in Texas: state House Speaker Dade Phelan, who oversaw the impeachment process against Paxton on corruption charges. The state House impeached Paxton, but the state Senate refused to convict him and remove him from office.

Phelan now faces a primary challenge from conservative activist David Covey, who has campaigned heavily on his support for Paxton and Trump. Covey won 46% of the vote in the March primary, compared to Phelan’s 43%.

Phelan is among eight state GOP lawmakers who were forced into a runoff after nine lost their primaries two months ago. Many were also targeted for defeat by Paxton or Abbott because of opposition to their school voucher program, NBC News’ Jane C. Timm reports.

Another notable example: Former Trump campaign spokeswoman Katrina Pierson is running with the support of Abbott and Paxton against Republican state Rep. Justin Holland.

Polls show that a guilty verdict for Trump would boost Biden. Here’s why this isn’t a sure thing.

By Steve Kornacki

Hanging over Trump’s trial in Manhattan has been the basic question of what impact a verdict will have on the presidential race — or whether it will have any impact at all.

And the national pre-verdict poll seems to point to a clear answer. Our own NBC News research looked at this in February. In a head-to-head matchup, Trump led Joe Biden 47%-42%. But when voters were asked what they would do “if Donald Trump were found guilty and convicted this year of a crime,” Biden took the lead, 45%-43%.

More recently, a Yahoo News/YouGov poll last week found Trump and Biden tied at 45%. But when voters were asked how they would react “if Trump were convicted of a crime in the hush money case,” Biden opened up a 7-point lead, 46%-39%.

AND this month’s Marquette Law School survey divided his interviewees into two groups. One of them was asked how they would vote “if it turns out that Donald Trump is found guilty at his trial in New York”. Biden led between 43% and 39% on this issue. The other group, however, was asked what they would do “if it turned out that Donald Trump was found innocent at his trial in New York”. They sided with Trump 44%-38%.

So that solves everything, right?

This is where a vital caveat comes into play: all of these findings are rooted in a hypothetical scenario. Voters were asked how they would react to a potential conviction or acquittal, but whether that is how they would actually render a verdict cannot be known until and unless there is one.

After all, events do not happen in a vacuum. A Trump verdict would likely unleash a torrent of controversy and highly public posturing from all corners. Absorbing all of this could shape (or reshape) how voters feel about the verdict. And while one verdict would dominate news coverage, many other politically charged battles will also capture public attention between now and November, potentially diluting any impact of this trial.

There is also recent history to consider. The past nine years have been marked by periodic outbursts of what was thought to be political toxicity involving Trump. These were often accompanied by rapid drops in polls, as we saw with the release of the “Access Hollywood” tape in 2016 and the January 6th riots in 2021. In these and other cases, however, Trump’s numbers ended up returning to initial values.

Still, in a race as close as this one, even a slight change in the polls could be decisive. Therefore, if Trump is convicted and there is a small group of his supporters who defect from his camp and eventually do not return, the impact could be seismic.

But that’s a lot of ifs.

Read more about the closing arguments in today’s Trump trial proceedings →

That’s all from The Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback – like or dislike – send us an email at newsletter@nbcuni.com

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