Iit is up to the jury to decide whether Donald Trump is guilty or not. If he is acquitted, the trial will end and prosecutors will not be able to charge him again with the same crimes. But if the jury comes back with a guilty verdict, almost everything about what happens next will be up to Judge Juan Merchan.
The experienced New York Supreme Court judge, who presided over Trump’s six-week Manhattan trial, will have several thorny decisions before him, including whether to send a former president to prison or parole, and whether any sentence should be delayed until Trump has exhausted his power. appeals. Each decision would have repercussions across the entire political scene and, depending on the moment, could greatly affect the November elections.
That’s a lot of power invested in one person. Here’s a look at the decisions Merchan would face involving Trump’s future after a conviction.
Revisiting Trump’s bail conditions
The first rulings would come almost immediately after jurors notified the judge that they had found Trump guilty. After that, the jury’s duties would be fulfilled and Judge Merchan would dismiss them. It would be up to jurors to decide whether they want to talk to reporters or legal teams after the case about why they voted the way they did.
At that point, prosecutors would have the opportunity to ask the judge to increase Trump’s bail, a common request that serves as a guarantee that a newly convicted defendant will return to court for the sentencing hearing and any other court requirements related to the proceedings. case. In some trials, prosecutors argue that a defendant found guilty poses an increased risk of flight and would ask the judge for stricter bail terms, including remaining in jail until the formal sentencing hearing. Trump posted a $175 million bond in the Manhattan fraud case. Merchan is unlikely to change the terms of Trump’s bail.
The sentencing hearing
Even scheduling Trump’s sentencing hearing will be politically tense for Merchan. The judge could convene a sentencing hearing as early as July. The Republican National Convention, where Trump is expected to formally accept his party’s nomination for president, is scheduled for the third week of July in Milwaukee.
In the weeks leading up to the sentencing hearing, if standard procedures are followed, Trump will meet with a probation officer who will interview Trump and prepare a written report with a recommended sentence. The probation report would be sent to the defense attorneys, the prosecution, and the judge. And Trump’s legal team would have the opportunity to suggest sentencing terms and provide letters of support for Trump.
But the actual sentence would be up to Judge Merchan to decide, and he would have a number of options before him. He could decide not to punish Trump by giving him time served — essentially deciding that going through trial was punishment enough and that there was no further need for penalties. He could give Trump a “conditional discharge” with a requirement like community service. Or it could put Trump on probation with terms he would have to meet to avoid prison. Or Merchan could decide to send Trump to prison.
“There is a huge delta politically between a prison sentence and a probation sentence. This will be the most agonizing choice the judge will face,” says Norman Eisen, senior fellow in governance studies at The Brookings Institution and former counsel to the Democratic-led House Judiciary Committee during Trump’s first impeachment.
For each of the 34 criminal charges Trump faces, New York State sentencing guidelines call for 16 months to 4 years in prison. A judge in Merchan’s position is unlikely to rule that these sentences should be served one after the other. If the judge considered all 34 charges as part of a single action, he could decide that the prison time would be overlapping, which would mean a maximum sentence of 4 years in prison.
If Merchan believes a prison sentence is warranted, he would also have leeway to sentence Trump to a much shorter period in prison. New York’s penal code allows judges to consider prison sentences of one year or less for first-time fraud offenders.
In New York, a prison sentence of less than one year is typically served at the Rikers Island city jail or the Manhattan Detention Complex, commonly known as “The Tombs.” Prisoners serving sentences longer than one year are usually sent to one of New York State’s prisons.
Trump could appeal both his conviction and the judge’s sentence
Trump’s lawyers will certainly appeal the conviction, a process that will likely extend until Election Day. Your first stop would be the Appellate Division in Manhattan. Ultimately, he could request a review from New York’s highest court, the Albany Court of Appeals.
Meanwhile, Merchan can issue his sentence. But this decision would not necessarily be absolute either. Even if Merchan decided to sentence Trump to prison, the former President would likely be allowed to remain out of prison pending his likely appeals. Immediately following a possible sentencing hearing, Trump’s legal team could march to the Manhattan Court of Appeals at 25th Street and Madison Ave. to appeal the sentence. “Most white collar cases are granted bail pending appeal. That’s just a fact,” says Diana Florence, a former longtime prosecutor in the Manhattan district attorney’s office.
Merchan had previously shown reluctance to send Trump to prison
Judge Merchan has already demonstrated that he does not take lightly the idea of sending a former president who is one of the main candidates for the position back to prison.
Merchan found Trump in contempt of court 10 times for violating his gag order by publicly criticizing witnesses, and fined him $1,000 for each violation. In court in early May, Merchan said the fines were clearly not a sufficient deterrent and that he would consider putting Trump behind bars if prosecutors recommended it. Merchan acknowledged that the politics of such a decision were impossible to ignore.
“Mr. Trump, it’s important to understand that the last thing I want to do is put you in prison. You are the former president of the United States and possibly the next president as well,” Merchan said to Trump. Merchan said he considered incarcerating Trump “truly a last resort” and that he worried about the people who would have to enforce his orders, including court officials, corrections officers and Trump’s Secret Service detail. would happen in the execution of such a sanction,” said Merchan.
But Merchan made clear that he was willing to arrest Trump if he felt it was necessary to defend the judicial system and force Trump to respect the process. “Your continued violations of the legal order of this court threaten to interfere with the administration of justice in constant attacks that constitute a direct attack on the rule of law. I cannot allow this to continue,” Merchan said. “Therefore, as much as I do not want to impose a sanction of imprisonment and have done everything I can to avoid it, I want you to understand that I will do so if necessary and appropriate.”
If the jury decides to convict Trump, Merchan will face the same decision again.
This story originally appeared on Time.com read the full story
