WASHINGTON (AP) – The general elections for a race that could determine the Senate majority begins shortly after Montana voters chose their nominees in Tuesday’s primary.
The center of the political storm in Montana is the U.S. Senate race, in which Democrats Jon Tester is running for re-election. Republican leaders, including Sen. Steve Daines, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, supports Tim Sheehy for the GOP nomination. Sheehy, a retired Navy SEAL who personal wealth to help pay for an expensive challenge to Tester, he faces two other candidates on the ballot.
Representative Matt RosendaleThe attempt to join the race was quickly rebuffed when former President Donald Trump endorsed Sheehy on the day Rosendale announced he would also run for Senate. Rosendale dropped out of the race less than a week later, announcing his intention to run for re-election. At that point, however, Republicans had already lined up to run for his House seat. Now, Rosendale will not run for public office in 2024.
State Auditor Troy Downing is among the candidates in a crowded primary to replace Rosendale, as is the former congressman. Denny Rehberg and several others. Meanwhile, the other member of Montana’s congressional delegation, Rep. Ryan Zinke, is running for re-election, as is Gov. Greg Gianforte.
Tester is a top Republican target, one of two Democrats running for re-election in a state Trump won in 2020. Rosendale failed to unseat Tester in the 2018 raceand Republicans hope Sheehy will be more successful.
The open Rosendale seat could mean a big political comeback for Rehberg, or a launching pad for another candidate in the crowded field. Daines served in the general congressional seat before moving to the Senate. And Gianforte, who won a House seat in a controversial 2017 special election, is now governor.
Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday:
PRIMARY DAY
The primary will be held on Tuesday. Voting closes at 10pm ET or 8pm local time.
WHAT’S ON THE BALLOT
The Associated Press will provide results and determine winners in 72 races, including the presidential primaries. Trump and President Joe Biden, a Democrat, are the only candidates on their respective ballots, but voters have the option of selecting “no preference” or entering a candidate in both races.
The AP is also tabulating the results of the Republican and Democratic primaries for the U.S. Senate race. Tester appears on the Democratic ballot alongside Michael Hummert, who had not registered any fundraising for his campaign as of the last deadline. Tester has $11.8 million on hand and has spent $26 million this cycle as of last filing.
Voters will also select nominees for governor and lieutenant governor, who will run as a team, as a ballot option.
Other state offices, including secretary of state and attorney general, appear on the ballot, as well as in state legislative primaries and judicial races.
WHO CAN VOTE
Montana has an open primary system, meaning any registered voter can participate in any party’s primary.
DELEGATE ALLOCATION RULES
Montana’s 20 pledged Democratic delegates are allocated according to standard national party rules. Five at-large delegates are allocated proportionally to the statewide vote, as are three PLEO delegates, or “party leaders and elected officials.” The state’s two electoral districts have a total of 12 delegates at stake, which are allocated proportionally to the voting results in each district. Candidates must receive at least 15% of the vote statewide to qualify for any state delegate, and 15% of the vote in a congressional district to qualify for delegates in that district.
In the Republican primaries, 31 delegates are not tied to a presidential candidate.
DECISION NOTES
Sheehy has never been on the ballot for statewide office, but he has a big financial advantage in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate. He had already spent $8.3 million as of May 15 and had an additional $2.2 million in the bank. Two other candidates on the ballot didn’t come close to keeping up with Sheehy’s fundraising or spending.
Gianforte is running for another term as governor alongside Lt. Gov. Kristen Juras. He faces a challenge from the right by state Rep. Tanner Smith, who represents part of Flathead County in the state House. Smith’s running mate, Randy Pinocci, represents District 1 on the Public Service Commission, which covers much of the eastern part of the state.
After decennial redistricting, Montana’s at-large congressional district was split in two. The first district covers the western portion of the state, along the border with Idaho. Most of the district favors Republicans, although there are pockets of Democratic leanings in some cities, including Bozeman, Missoula and Butte. For this reason, the 1st District became a target for Democrats. In 2022, Zinke won the general election by only about 3 percentage points over Democratic candidate Monica Tranel, who is running uncontested for the nomination in 2024.
The 2nd District is in the eastern portion of the state, stretching from Helena to the North Dakota border and is even friendlier to Republicans than the 1st District. Rehberg, Downing and Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen have appeared on state ballots before, making them familiar names to many voters. According to data from AdImpact, Downing has a significant advantage over his competitors in advertising spending in the race.
Ken Bogner, president pro tempore of the state Senate, is also running for the open seat in the 2nd District. Bogner is from Miles City in Custer County. Several other candidates also appear on the ballot, but have fallen far behind in campaign fundraising.
The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it is determined that there is no scenario that would allow trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race is not called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or victory declarations. In doing so, the AP will make it clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.
Elections in Montana automatically go to a recount in the event of a tie. Candidates may request a recount if the margin of the race is less than half a percentage point.
WHAT IS PARTICIPATION AND EARLY VOTING?
As of May 22, there were 752,395 registered voters in Montana. Montana voters do not register with any political party.
In the 2020 presidential election, turnout was 22% of registered voters in the Democratic primary and 31% in the Republican primary.
In the June 2022 primary, about 87% of votes were cast before Election Day.
As of May 28, a total of 448,022 ballots have been mailed to voters and 136,979 have been returned.
HOW LONG DOES VOTE COUNTING USUALLY TAKE?
In the 2022 primary election, the AP first reported the results at 10:06 p.m. ET, or six minutes after the polls close. Election night counting ended at 6:02 a.m. ET, with about 93% of the total votes counted.
ARE WE THERE ALREADY?
As of Tuesday, there will be 41 days until the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, 76 days until the Democratic National Convention in Chicago and 154 days until the November general election.
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Follow AP’s coverage of the 2024 elections at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.
