After a Manhattan jury found Donald Trump guilty of 34 criminal charges last week, Republicans rallied around the former president, insisting the verdict would only hurt Joe Biden’s standing in the presidential election.
But some new polling data casts doubt on that argument, as a small but crucial number of Americans in key voting blocs appear to be moving toward Biden in the wake of the verdict.
According to a post-verdict analysis From nearly 2,000 interviews with voters who previously participated in New York Times/Siena College polls, Trump’s lead over the president narrowed from three points to one point. This change may seem insignificant, but it could prove decisive in a tight presidential election, as is expected in this year’s race. In 2020just 44,000 votes in three swing states prevented an electoral college tie.
Perhaps more worrying for Trump are the specific areas where he appears to be losing support. According to the Times analysis, voters uncommitted to Democratic leanings and those who dislike both Trump and Biden were more likely to say the verdict made them reconsider their election choices.
Both voting groups have played a significant role in boosting Trump’s electoral performance in recent months. Among those who voted for Biden in 2020 and previously indicated they would support Trump this year, about a quarter said they would now support the sitting president. Voters who dislike both candidates, so-called “double haters,” are seen as particularly influential this year, and the Times analysis showed that Trump has lost more than a fifth of his pre-verdict support among these voters.
Related: ‘I would love to see him go to prison’: Voters react to guilty verdict in Trump trial
Polling data compiled after Trump’s conviction is still somewhat limited, but at least one other post-verdict poll corroborated the Times’ conclusions. Republican firm Echelon Insights conducted a study showing Biden with a two-point lead over Trump among recontacted voters, while responses from the same respondents indicated a tie between the two candidates before the jury gave its verdict.
But other warning signs remain for Biden, especially in the battleground states he will need to win to secure re-election. A Quinnipiac University Research of voters in Georgia, where Biden won by 0.2 points in 2020, showed Trump with a five-point lead in a head-to-head matchup against the incumbent, although that result was within the poll’s margin of error. When other candidates, including independent Robert F. Kennedy, were added to the list of options, Trump’s lead grew to six points, which was outside the margin of error.
While the poll showed Biden trailing in Georgia, the poll also found that 50% of voters in the swing state agreed with the verdict in the Manhattan case, underlining the mixed feelings triggered by Trump’s conviction.
A Times Opinion focus group of 11 swing voters, held hours after the verdict was announced last week, reflected a range of opinions about the outcome of the case, with some participants saying they were increasingly inclined to support Kennedy. At least one person said the verdict made him less likely to vote for Biden, arguing that Trump’s conviction made Biden look “impolite.” Another voter said Biden has “dirty hands in this,” an apparent reference to Trump’s baseless allegations of political persecution.
“I guess I thought Joe Biden was above it,” said John, a 58-year-old white customer relations employee from Pennsylvania.
And yet other focus group participants indicated that the verdict changed their opinion of Trump for the worse, echoing the conclusions of the Times analysis. One voter named Ben, a 42-year-old white college counselor from Texas, suggested he was leaning toward Biden because Trump’s conviction proved his incompetence.
“What’s wrong with bribing Stormy Daniels? But I want a president who is capable of covering up a $130,000 bribe to Daniels,” Ben said. “If he can’t do that, I’m not going to trust him with nuclear football. This seems like such an easy thing for him to screw up. I’m kind of leaning toward Biden right now.”
With five months until Election Day, voters still have time to consider – and reconsider – their thoughts on convicting Trump.
