Politics

AP Decision Notes: What to expect from North Dakota’s state primary

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WASHINGTON – While possible republican vice president hopeful Doug Burgum travels the country campaigning for former President Donald Trump, the race to succeed him at home, as the North Dakota governor tops the list of races that voters will decide in state and local primaries on Tuesday .

Burgum decided earlier this year not seek a third term following your unsuccessful execution to the White House. This created a vacancy not only for his own position, but also for the state’s only House seat.

Republican Kelly Armstrong He has represented the state in Congress since his election in 2018, but chose to run for governor rather than seek a fourth term in Washington. His main opponent is the lieutenant governor. Tammy Millerlooking for a promotion later serving 17 months as Burgum’s second-in-command.

Armstrong won the endorsement of the state Republican Party in his April Convention, which Miller did not attend. Meanwhile, Burgum has endorsed Miller to succeed him.

The winner of the Republican primary will face the Democratic state senator. Merril Piepkorn of Fargo, as well as an independent candidate Michael Coacha frequent candidate for public office across the state who led a unsuccessful effort to unseat Burgum in 2021. Republicans have held the governor’s office since 1992.

Five Republicans and two Democrats are running to replace Armstrong in Congress. Running for the Republican Party nomination are former foreign service officer and military veteran Alex Balazs, a former state representative. Rick BeckerPublic Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchaklawyer and former Miss America Cara Mund and Sharlet Mohr of Williston, an unsuccessful candidate for the 2023 Williston Basin School Board.

Balazs narrowly won the state party’s endorsement over Fedorchak after a prolonged vote at the state convention. Fedorchak leads in fundraising and had the largest campaign war chest at the end of May. She is the only candidate in the area who has already won statewide office.

In Democratic primary, former teacher and military veteran Trygve Hammer faces frequent candidate Roland Riemers, who is simultaneously running for a seat on the Grand Forks School Board. Hammer raised about $388,000 for the campaign and had about $141,000 in the bank at the end of May.

Neither Riemers nor Mohr in the Republican primary reported any campaign finance disclosures to the Federal Election Commission. A Democrat has not won this seat since 2008.

Voters will also decide on a statewide ballot measure that would set an age limit for those running for U.S. Senate or House seats. People who turned 81 at the beginning of the last year of their term would be prohibited from going to the polls.

Contested GOP primaries will be held in five state senates and 10 state districts. About half of the seats in each chamber will be up for election in November. Republicans have overwhelming majorities in both houses of the legislature.

Later in the ballot, Kirsten Baesler is seeking another term as state superintendent of public instruction. She faces three other candidates in the nonpartisan primary, including Republican Jason Heitkamp, ​​a former state senator and cousin of former Democratic senator Heidi Heitkamp. The two most voted candidates will advance to the general election.

Republican Sen. Kevin Cramer is also running for re-election this year, but both he and Democrat Katrina Christiansen were unopposed in the primaries.

Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday:

The North Dakota state primary will be held on Tuesday. The last polls close at 9 pm ET in the state’s westernmost counties, although polls in most of the state close at 8 pm ET. All polls close at 7pm local time, but North Dakota spans two time zones.

The Associated Press will provide voting results and declare winners in 20 races. These include contested partisan primaries for governor, House, state Senate and state House, a nonpartisan primary for superintendent of public instruction and a statewide ballot measure on age limits for Congress. Republican and Democratic primary contests appear on the same ballot, but voters can only vote in one party’s primary.

North Dakota does not have a formal statewide voter registration system. Any voter who meets age, citizenship, residency and identity requirements can participate in the primaries.

The counties that tend to have the biggest impact on North Dakota elections are Cass, where Fargo is located and the most populous, and Burleigh, where the state capital, Bismarck, is located. Grand Forks and Ward also have a sizable portion of voters. It would be difficult to overtake a candidate with leads in those four counties in a statewide race.

In the governor’s race, Armstrong last won a competitive primary in 2018, in his first run for the House. He won the race with 56% of the vote, taking Cass, Burleigh, Grand Forks and Ward.

For the at-large House seat, Republicans Fedorchak and Mund and Democrat Hammer have past statewide election performances that could be instructive. Fedorchak was unopposed in the 2022 Public Service Commission primary, but won the overall with 71% of the vote. Hammer received about 30% of the vote in his race for Public Service Commission that year. Mund received 38% of the vote when she challenged Armstrong as an independent in 2022. She won Cass County, but the bulk of Fargo-area voters willing to vote for a pro-abortion rights independent against a GOP incumbent likely won’t be. voting in this year’s Republican primaries.

Other things to remember: The congressional age limits ballot measure must receive at least 50% of the vote to pass. In the state House primary, there are two winners per seat and voters select up to two candidates.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it is determined that there is no scenario that would allow trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race is not called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or victory declarations. In doing so, the AP will make it clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

North Dakota requires an automatic recount in a primary if the vote margin is 1% or less of the largest vote cast for a candidate in that office. Ballot measure recounts are automatic if the vote margin is 0.25% or less of the top vote-getter’s total votes. A losing candidate may also request and pay for a recount if the vote margin is greater than 1% but less than 2% of the highest number of votes cast for that office. The AP may declare a winner in a race eligible for recount if it can determine that the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the result.

As of the 2022 primary, North Dakota had a voting age population of about 585,000. That year, votes cast in the Republican Senate primary represented about 13% of the voting-age population, while votes in the Democratic primary represented about 4%. About 48% of the votes in that election were cast before primary day.

On Wednesday, a total of 27,271 votes were cast before primary day.

In the 2022 primary, AP first reported results at 9 p.m. ET, when final polls closed in the state. Election night counting ended at 1:10 a.m. ET, with about 98% of the total votes counted.

As of Tuesday, there will be 147 days until the November general election.

___

Follow AP’s coverage of the 2024 elections at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.



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