Why Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s Current Presidential Poll Numbers May Not Hold Up

WASHINGTON – Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. reached 15% or more in three approved national surveys. One more, and he will have met one of the CNN Benchmarks to qualify for the debate June 27 with Democrat President Joe Biden It is presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump.

But Kennedy cannot count on maintaining his current level of support as the November elections approach.

It’s all too common for third-party candidates to appear to have momentum in the polls in the months leading up to an election, only to fall far short at the polls, according to an Associated Press analysis of Gallup data dating back to 1980.

This is not a sign that the Kennedy polls are wrong at this point. They are simply not predictors of what will happen in the general election.

Studies show that people are bad at predicting their future behavior and are months away from voting. And in a year with two highly unpopular candidates in the a 2020 rematch, voters may also use their initial support for a third-party candidate to express their frustration with the major parties’ choices. In the end, voters can support the candidate for whom they feel their vote can make a difference, or they can decide not to vote.

The concept of third party has been popular for a long time.

A 1999 Gallup poll found that two-thirds of American adults said they favor a third political party that would run candidates for president, Congress and state offices against Republicans and Democrats. (The AP analysis used Gallup data, when available, because Gallup has a long history of high-quality polling in the United States.)

About 6 in 10 U.S. adults said in Gallup Poll Since 2013, the Republican and Democratic parties have done “such a poor job of representing the American people” that a third major party is needed. In the latest Gallup poll, much of this enthusiasm is supported by independents: 75% say a third party is needed. About 6 in 10 Republicans and just under half of Democrats (46%) say an alternative is needed.

Marjorie Hershey, professor emeritus in the political science department at Indiana University, said Americans generally like the idea of ​​a third party until specific details such as that party’s policies and nominees emerge.

“It’s a symbolic notion. Do I want more options? Very clear. Everyone always wants more options, more ice cream options, more fast food options,” Hershey said. “But if you start to dig deeper and talk about, then it would be tacos or burgers, so that’s a totally different choice, right?”

This hypothetical support for third-party candidates often unravels quickly.

The AP analysis looked at polls for all independent and minor party presidential candidates who have received at least 3% of the popular vote nationally since the 1980 elections.

In multiple elections, including the 1980, 1992, and 2016 presidential elections, third-party candidates achieved early poll numbers that were much higher than their final vote share. For example, in polls conducted in May and June 1980, between 21% and 24% of registered voters said they would like to see an independent candidate John Anderson, a veteran Republican congressman from Illinois, won when he ran for president against Republican Ronald Reagan and incumbent Democrat Jimmy Carter. Anderson won 7% of the popular vote.

Part of the problem is that early polls often look quite different from the actual vote in general elections.

Voters “don’t know what’s going to happen between now and the election,” said Jeffrey Jones, senior editor at Gallup. “Things will come up in the campaign that could change the way they think.”

Decades after Anderson, polls conducted during the 2016 presidential campaign placed support for the Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson, former governor of New Mexico, between 5% and 12% in polls of registered voters conducted from May to July. That led some people to predict he could do better than any third-party candidate in decades. Johnson won about 3% of the vote in that election.

Johnson told the AP he believes his name should have been included in more polls, even though he participated in polls used to determine debate eligibility.

He also claims that independent candidates struggle to keep up with major party candidates in fundraising.

“It’s money, first and foremost. People don’t donate if they don’t think you have a chance of winning,” Johnson said. “I’m not excluding myself from that same equation. Look, am I going to give money to someone I know is going to lose? I’d rather go on vacation to Kauai,” Johnson said in an interview while driving with his family on a trip to Hawaii.

The American electoral system makes it difficult for others to succeed. Still, it is possible to have a significant impact without coming close to victory.

Billionaire businessman Ross Perot It is among the most successful modern examples. He won 19% of the vote when he ran for president in 1992. But that number was substantially lower than his support in previous polls. In polls conducted from May to July that year, between 30% and 39% of registered voters said they would vote for Perot.

There are already reasons to believe that at least some of Kennedy’s electoral support may be a mirage. (The Kennedy campaign did not respond to a request for comment.)

A CNN poll conducted last summer when he was running for the Democratic nomination found that 2 in 10 Democrats who would consider supporting him said their support was related to the Kennedy name or his family connections. Another 17% said they didn’t know enough about him and wanted to learn more, while just 12% said it was because of their support for his views and policies.

“One variable that’s so different from all these other people is the name Kennedy,” said Barbara Perry, an expert on presidential studies at the University of Virginia’s Miller Center. “There’s a lot of emotion around it that I would say wasn’t there in the Anderson, Perot, (Ralph) Nader and Johnson cases.”

There are also some evidence that Americans are using support for Kennedy to express frustration with Biden and Trump.

Hershey notes that for many people, presidential elections can seem abstract until a few weeks before they happen, so it’s good to take early poll numbers with a grain of salt.

These polls “don’t necessarily reflect real political issues,” Hershey said. “They reflect general views about life.”