REMOVING Joe Biden from the top of the Democratic Party’s presidential ticket would doom the party’s chances of success in the November election, a leading historian has warned.
Questions regarding the president’s fitness for office remain unanswered, given his age and the mistakes that dominated his term.
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And the Biden family was hit with the bombshell that is the guilty verdict in Hunter’s gun trial.
In a statement, Biden said that although he is president, he is also a father.
“Jill and I love our son and are so proud of the man he is today. Many families who have had loved ones struggle with addiction understand the feeling of pride in seeing someone you love come out the other side and we are so strong and resilient in recovery.
“I will accept the outcome of this case and will continue to respect the judicial process while Hunter considers an appeal.
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“Jill and I will always stand by Hunter and the rest of our family with love and support. Nothing will change that.”
‘MISTAKEN’
Fears are reportedly rising among Democratic strategists that Biden could lose to recently convicted felon Donald Trump when Americans go to the polls.
But Alan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted the outcome of presidential elections since 1984, called on top Democrats not to act against the president.
“The experts who tell us that Biden should step down in favor of younger candidates are mistaken,” he told The US Sun.
“Following their advice would be the Democrats’ doom.”
Lichtman, the brains behind the Keys to the White House algorithm, said several factors would have to conspire against the president for him to lose.
The scholar’s algorithm consists of 13 true or false statements.
If six or more statements are false, the incumbent party in the White House risks losing.
One of Lichtman’s keys solves the scandal.
For years, House Republicans have tried to pin a scandal on the Biden administration, but to no avail.
Hunter Biden was found guilty of possession of a weapon.
Prosecutors successfully argued that Hunter lied on documents for a gun purchase in 2018 when he claimed he was not using drugs.
Hunter was found guilty of illegally purchasing and possessing a gun for 11 days.
But Hunter’s guilty outcome is unlikely to decide Joe’s political fate, according to Lichtman.
“Any scandal must have bipartisan recognition. It has to reach the president himself,” he said.
“All the scandals involving Billy Carter did not Jimmy Carter less than a moral individual.
The 13 keys to the White House
HISTORIAN Allan Lichtman predicts the winner of the presidential election using his algorithm consisting of 13 true or false statements. If six or more statements are false, the incumbent will lose the next election:
- The incumbent party has more seats in the House of Representatives after the midterm elections compared to the previous set of elections
- There is no primary contest for the nomination of the incumbent party
- Incumbent president seeks second term
- No significant third-party challenge
- Strong economy in the short term
- Strong long-term economy
- Major policy change enacted by the incumbent administration
- No social unrest
- No scandal
- No major foreign policy or military failure
- Great foreign policy or military success
- Charismatic holder
- Uncharismatic challenger
Billy Carter, Jimmy’s brother, was a foreign agent for the Libyan government.
And he received hundreds of thousands of dollars from the Arab nation.
Biden has already kept two of Lichtman’s keys – the incumbency factor and the partisan dispute.
“If Biden does not run, they will lose their mandate and lose the key to the contest because there is no heir apparent,” said the scholar.
“Only four more keys would have to fall to predict Democratic defeat.”
Lichtman emphasized that a lot would have to conspire against Biden’s party for him to lose.
“But that doesn’t mean it can happen because things are very fluid,” he added.
The experts who tell us that Biden should step down in favor of younger candidates are mistaken.
Allan Lichtman
Lichtman warned that four keys appear to be decisive in deciding whether Biden will be re-elected.
Biden has already lost the key to charisma, as he is not a Franklin Roosevelt or John F. Kennedy type of figure.
“Joe Biden is an average guy, a middle-of-the-road candidate,” Lichtman said.
“That’s why he loses the key to charisma, but gains the key to scandal.”
Both foreign policy keys, the third party key and the social unrest key remain in play.
“No one bracket is more important than any of the others, but all four would have to fall to predict Biden’s defeat,” Lichtman said.
The wars in Ukraine and Gaza continue to rage and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. race.
RFK Jr. needs to receive 5% of the national vote for the third-party bracket to fall.
Lichtman explained how his process works, given that polls are volatile.
He said RFK Jr. needs to consistently poll around the 10% mark for the key to turn against Biden.
Lichtman then cuts the major opinion poll numbers in half.
Joe Biden is a vanilla guy.
Allan Lichtman
Lichtman warned that social unrest must reach a level that raises doubts about the structure of society.
The US has not been immune to the protests that have been seen on college campuses around the world, demonstrating anti-Israeli sentiments.
“The social unrest would have to be much greater than what we have seen so far,” Lichtman said.
“What we saw in the campus protests is serious, but it is nothing like the 1960s, when hundreds of campuses erupted in protests, when millions of people were in the streets and cities were on fire.
“The protest would have to be much more significant to the point of really jeopardizing the stability of society.”
Could Hunter Biden Go to Prison?
Will Trachman, general counsel at the Mountain States Legal Foundation, told The US Sun that it is difficult to say whether Biden will be arrested for his gun conviction.
The trial took place in Delaware, where the Biden name “has come a long way,” Trachman said.
Judge Maryellen Noreika is known for being impartial, Trachman said, so given Hunter’s age and status as a first-time offender, he believes he would receive a light sentence.
However, due to the seriousness of the alleged crimes, Trachman also believes Biden could serve prison time.
Hunter faces up to 25 years in prison after being convicted of all charges at the 7-day trial.
Lichtman revealed that both wars do not have to end for the key to foreign policy success to turn in favor of the White House.
But, one of the conflicts has to end or the Ukrainians will have made significant inroads against the Russians.
“A success would have to be a ‘stunning’ achievement, as if Biden brokered a ceasefire that ended the war in Gaza and freed the hostages,” Lichtman said.
“A failure would be the continuation of the devastation in Gaza with no end in sight.”
TIGHT RACE
Lichtman said that his 13 keys evaluate the ruling party’s chances of re-election based on governance, but there is one key focused exclusively on the challenger.
The key to the uncharismatic challenger falls in favor of Biden because Trump does not attract support beyond his base – even though he is a showman, according to the historian.
Lichtman admitted that none of Trump’s rivals for the Republican presidential nomination came close.
“You have to be broadly appealing, like Ronald Reagan on the Republican side or Franklin Roosevelt on the Democratic side who won landslide elections,” he said.
Hunter Biden’s next steps
Hunter Biden was found guilty of all charges in his gun trial and now faces 25 years in prison.
After three hours of deliberation, a jury convicted Hunter, 54, of all charges on Tuesday.
Judge Maryellen Noreika did not set a sentencing date, however, federal guidelines offer a glimpse of what could be on the horizon for the president’s son.
Guidelines call for a 15- to 21-month sentence for Hunter, with experts saying defendants typically receive shorter sentences and are less likely to be incarcerated if they comply with pretrial release rules.
Hunter’s attorney, Abbe Lowell, said he is seeking legal action to overturn his conviction.
The 3rd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in May that Hunter will have to wait until after the verdict to appeal several decisions Noreika made to dismiss the charges.
Meanwhile, Hunter’s trial in Los Angeles, California, on nine tax charges has been scheduled for September 5.
He is accused of allegedly failing to pay at least $1.4 million in self-assessed taxes from 2016 to 2019 and evading tax assessment in 2018 when he filed false returns, according to an indictment.
“Trump lost the popular vote in two elections by a combined 10 million votes.
“There were a lot of Reagan Democrats. I have a hard time finding Trump Democrats.”
Polls suggest the race for the White House is on a knife’s edge.
Really clear policy the analysis puts Trump marginally ahead of Biden when it comes to the national vote.
Trump also has advantages in the swing states that ultimately decide who ends up in the White House.
Trump has 219 electoral college votes, while Biden is close behind with 202, according to the RCP.
But 117 electoral college votes are in the coin toss category.
Biden’s job approval ratings have been underwater since August 2021 and most Americans believe the country is heading in the wrong direction.
Biden has a lower approval rating than Trump, Barack Obama and George W. Bush at this stage of their respective presidencies.
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This story originally appeared on The-sun.com read the full story
