What the far-right victories in the European Union could say about the US elections this year

The recently completed European Union elections were another milestone for far right parties on the continent. They have accumulated gains in many of the 27 EU countries, and the astonishing scale of their victories is shaking the political establishment there and attracting attention in the United States.

The parties’ success German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was embarrassed by overcoming your party and prompted French President Emmanuel Macron to call early legislative elections.

While votes were still being tallied on Tuesday, the gain for the right is just the latest example of how discontent with globalization It is immigration fed a conservative and populist reaction in rich Western democracies. Former President Donald Trump 2016 victory was the strongest example of this, but it is not clear whether the trends that have propelled the right in Europe will allow him to win another term in November.

This is because, along with the striking parallels, there are fundamental differences between the dynamics in Europe and the US. And even with the gains of the right in the most recent European elections in that country, the political center is still expected to maintain control of the EU Parliament.

“We are clearly at one of those points where the wind can blow in any direction,” said Charlies A. Kupchan, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

WHAT FEDED THE RIGHT IN EUROPE?

All EU countries have different political dynamics, and EU parliamentary elections are often an opportunity for voters in each country to cast a symbolic vote against those in power in their own country, as they vote for people who will take possession in Brussels and not its own capital. There was also globalization reaction to holders This does not appear to have any ideological basis.

But the resurgence of the right in Europe is more than symbolic or random. It has been driven by frustration over the EU migration crisis – frustration that the right has been eager to amplify on online platforms – as well as climate change regulations and other issues that have been seen to hit rural and underprivileged residents hardest. schooling. Economic growth in much of Europe been stagnant since the 2008 global recession, further increasing discontent with the status quo.

Far-right or populist parties now lead Italy and Slovakia and are part of governing coalitions in other countries, such as Finland, Sweden and, soon, the Netherlands.

Generally, the right’s strongest support on the continent is among rural voters who have lower levels of education than urban voters, who express greater comfort with the economic and social changes of globalization. This all probably sounds very familiar to voters in the US, where there have been similar divisions between Trump’s Republicans and President Joe Biden’s Democrats.

IS TRUMP ON THE SAME WAVE?

Trump has embraced the European rightespecially the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, whose self-described “illiberal democracy” has made him an icon for conservative populists who believe in limiting immigration and LGBTQ+ rights. He has supported several European conservative populists in their national leadership bids, and some of Trump’s top advisers maintain ties to the movement across the Atlantic.

One of these former advisors, Steve Bannonon Monday called the EU elections “a tectonic plate shift” on his podcast.

“It’s like here in the United States, it’s what MAGA does,” Bannon said, using the acronym for Trump’s Make America Great Again movement. “MAGA pulls us more to the right. It is necessary for the nation and necessary for the world.”

Trump’s victory in 2016, despite losing the popular vote, was secured in part by the promise to build a wall between the US and Mexico to limit immigration. This year, he has beat Biden about the increase in migrants crossing the southern border seeking asylum in the United States. Recognizing the power of the issue, Biden has moved to the right on immigration, issuing new regulations to close the border if fees are too high.

There are some important differences, however, between Trump and European populists, the most significant being its track record in terms of democracy. Trump attempted to reverse his defeat to Biden in 2020, culminating on January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol. He embraced this cause in his campaign to regain officecontinuing to repeat the lie that he was cheated out of re-election by widespread fraud and by calling those who stormed the Capitol “warriors” during a Las Vegas rally on Sunday.

Steven Levitsky, a Harvard political scientist and co-author of “How Democracies Die,” said this is in stark contrast to European populists.

“They are much less overtly authoritarian than Trump,” Levitsky said. “None of these guys rejected the election results.”

This has been a political vulnerability for Trump, who continues make false claims that the 2020 elections was stolen. Biden relentlessly attacked him for January 6th and signaled that he will preserving democracy essential for your campaign. Trump supporters that targeted lost state election offices in every swing state in 2022 and Democrats hope the same dynamic will protect Biden this year.

Kupchan said Trump voters may be angrier and more desperate than their European counterparts because of that continent’s robust social safety net.

“One reason the center has remained in Europe and not in the US is that Americans have yet to fall,” he said. “If you’re a worker in Europe and you lost your job on a VW production line, you’re hurting, but you’re not in as much trouble as someone in Michigan.”

Trump’s strongest support has been among older voters, in contrast to European populists who experts say perform better among younger voters. And in the American two-party system, the current elections are equivalent to a game of chicken with voters, who will have to choose between Biden or Trump. The dispute may come down to who is least unpleasant to voters and whether third party candidates unable to gain any political power in the race will garner enough votes to convict one of the party’s two leading candidates.

It is far from inevitable that Trump will win. Just look at Europe to see that conservative populism has its limits.

THE RIGHT CAN ONLY GO SO FAR

There were limits to the conquests of the right in Europe. Last year, Poland’s conservative populist government lost power voters chose for a center-left coalition. The UK left the EU in a victory for conservative populism, but its conservative Tory party is I expected to lose a lot in the next election, even if the opposition Labor Party does not plan to reverse Brexit.

Even in the heart of the power of conservative populism in Europe, in Hungary, there has been growing discontent with the government in office.

In places where the right has taken power, like Italy, where the Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni party doubled the number of its members in the EU parliament, there was no radical break. Meloni kept his country as part of the coalition supporting Ukraine’s struggle against Russia. Although she has cracked down on the admission of migrants crossing the Mediterranean into the country, she and her Brothers of Italy party, with neo-fascist roots, have not made any fundamental changes to the country’s political and economic structure.

Matthias Matthisj, professor of international political economy at Johns Hopkins University, said Italy could be an example of how populists will govern in Europe.

“They are going to be stricter in Muslim prayer and now you can drive faster on the highway,” Matthisj said. “But when it comes to the big issues – the budget, foreign policy – ​​the only way these populists can get to power is to stay in the center.”

This contrasts with Trump, who has embraced landmark changes in US policy and how the federal government can operate if he wins. Some analysts believe a Trump victory could give European populists like Meloni permission to move further to the right.

Even after the EU elections, radical change is unlikely. The EU President’s Christian Democrats Ursula von der Leyen it has moved to the right to counter the populist wave and remains by far the largest party in the group of 720 members. The center still remains in Europe – it has simply moved to the right. Whether this will happen in the US in November is the next question.

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Associated Press writer Ali Swenson in New York contributed to this report.