WASHINGTON (AP) — The incumbents’ dominance in the 2024 congressional primaries will be put to the test in Virginia on Tuesday.
As Virginia Democrats head to the polls to fill two open U.S. House seats, Republican voters could replace House Freedom Caucus Chairman Bob Good, who faces a primary challenge in the 5th Congressional District. Former President Donald Trump endorsed his challengerState Senator John McGuire, highlighting the balancing act that the most ideologically strident members of Congress must walk to stay on Trump’s good side. Good supported one of Trump’s early opponents, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, in this year’s presidential primary.
If Good loses, he would be the first House incumbent to face a primary challenge this year, with the exception of one race in which two incumbents faced off over redistricting.
Good was also among eight Republicans who voted to remove then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who has allies in the Republican Main Street Partnership, a group that says it is “dedicated to working to enact commonsense legislation.” House Republican-affiliated super PAC Defending Main Street ran ads supporting McGuire, while a super PAC affiliated with the Freedom Caucus ran ads supporting Good.
Good has already won the nomination for his place through a convention, where only state delegates vote for the nominee. This will be Good’s first time running for this seat in a traditional primary, with an electorate that goes beyond the party’s most active participants.
Although Trump has supported his opponent, Good is campaigning based on his loyalty to Trump, even appearing for his trial in New York. Trump comfortably carried the 5th District in 2020 and 2016.
In the 7th Congressional District, Democrats will choose their candidate to replace Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who is running for governor in 2025. Eugene Vindman, a former ethics lawyer at the National Security Council, had raised his closest rival by about 15 times on May 29th. Vindman is Popular among Democratic activists due to his involvement in reporting a 2019 call between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that led to Trump’s first impeachment.
The Republican primary pitted members of the House Freedom Caucus, who support Navy veteran Cameron Hamilton, against members of the House leadership, who support Army veteran Derrick Anderson.
In the 10th District, Democrats are choosing a successor to Rep. Jennifer Wexton, who is not running for re-election after being diagnosed with a brain disease. A dozen Democrats are running to replace her.
In the 2nd District, two Democrats are on the ballot to face Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans in a district that Joe Biden narrowly won in the 2020 presidential race against Trump. Navy veteran Missy Cotter Smasal is the primary fundraiser, with support from former governors. Ralph Northam and Terry McAuliffe, along with Spanberger and Wexton. She faces constitutional law attorney Jake Denton.
In the US Senate, Trump endorsed Navy veteran Hung Cao for the Republican nomination. Cao faces Scott Parkinson, who has the support of Good and several U.S. senators and representatives. Constitutional lawyer and conservative columnist Jonathan Emord spent nearly $900,000 on the primary as of the filing deadline, slightly ahead of Parkinson, who spent $600,000, but significantly behind Cao, who spent nearly $2. 4 million. Army veteran Eddie Garcia and Navy veteran Chuck Smith are also on the ballot.
Here’s what to expect Tuesday:
PRIMARY DAY
The primary will be held on Tuesday. Voting closes at 7pm ET.
WHAT’S ON THE BALLOT
The Associated Press will provide coverage of 10 races: six Democratic primary for U.S. House, three Republican primary for U.S. House and one Republican primary for U.S. Senate.
WHO CAN VOTE
Virginia has an open primary system, meaning any registered voter can choose to participate in a party’s primary.
DECISION NOTES
In the 5th Congressional District, Good’s base of support is in the central and western parts of the district around Lynchburg and Campbell County, where he previously served on the board of supervisors. In the state Senate, McGuire represents counties in the northeast portion of the district, including Powhatan and Goochland counties and parts of Hanover County. A potentially decisive factor in the race is which candidate represents the more moderate, highly educated areas around Charlottesville and parts of Albemarle County.
In the 7th District, the Democratic field includes four current and former elected officials from Prince William County, which represents more than a third of the district and could be a deciding factor in the race: former state Del. Elizabeth Guzman, state Del. Briana Sewell and the Council of County Supervisors members Andrea Bailey and Margaret Franklin. Two other Democratic candidates, military veterans Carl Bedell and Cliff Heinzer, did not hold office.
In the Republican primary, Anderson led Republicans in fundraising until the filing deadline, raising $1.1 million. Hamilton raised $722,000.
Loudoun County makes up the majority of the 10th Congressional District, which also includes parts of Prince William County and a portion of Fairfax County. State Del. Dan Helmer is the top fundraiser in the race. Helmer and State Senator Jennifer Boysko represent part of Fairfax County, as well as Former State House Speaker Eileen Filler-Corn.
Wexton supported state Sen. Suhas Subramanyam, a former Obama administration policy adviser who represents parts of Loudoun County. Del. David Reid also represents Loudoun. Loudoun County resident Krystle Kaul is a relative newcomer to politics but has lent her campaign more than $500,000.
Former Virginia Secretary of Education Atif Qarni lives in Manassas, which is within the district, and Del. Michelle Maldonado represents Manassas, Manassas Park and part of Prince William County.
There are a handful of other candidates on the ballot who could further fragment the vote, lowering the threshold a candidate needs to win a plurality of votes and making the race especially unpredictable.
The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it is determined that there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race is not called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or victory declarations. In doing so, the AP will make it clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.
In Virginia, a candidate can request a recount if the margin separating two candidates is less than 1 percentage point.
WHAT IS PARTICIPATION AND EARLY VOTING LIKE?
As of June 1, there were 6,230,102 registered voters in Virginia. Voters in Virginia do not register with any political party.
In the 2022 Republican primary elections, turnout was 7% of registered voters in the 2nd and 7th congressional districts. In the 8th District Democratic primary, turnout was 10%.
In the 2024 presidential race, 44% of Democratic primary votes and 16% of Republican primary votes were cast before Election Day.
As of Wednesday, a total of 92,600 early votes had been cast in the Democratic primary, including about 69% mail-in votes and 31% absentee in-person votes. In the Republican primary, 57,881 early votes were cast, including 55% mail-in votes and 45% in-person absentee votes.
HOW LONG DOES VOTE COUNTING USUALLY TAKE?
In the 2022 7th District Republican primary election, the AP first reported the results at 7:10 p.m. ET, or 10 minutes after polls closed. Election night counting ended at 9:15 pm ET, with more than 99% of the total votes counted.
ARE WE THERE ALREADY?
As of Tuesday, there will be 140 days until the November general election.
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Follow AP’s coverage of the 2024 elections at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.
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AP Writer Matthew Barakat in Falls Church, Virginia, contributed to this report.
