OXFORD, North Carolina – President Joe Biden and Donald Trump are eyeing some battleground states in the race for the White House, and North Caroline is one of them.
Rural voters in particular will play an important role in both campaigns, but candidates will have to overcome voters’ indifference, fatigue and even disgust.
Both Democrats and Republicans hope face-to-face contact will help them make their case. In places like Granville County, a swing county situated between the Raleigh-Durham area and the Virginia state line, this has already begun.
Here are some key findings from an analysis of the campaign less than five months before the November general election.
When it comes to advertising spending in North Carolina, Democrats are outpacing Republicans by a nearly 4-to-1 margin, according to data from AdImpact. As of June 7, Democratic groups had spent more than $4 million, compared to about $1 million by Republicans in the state.
This difference increases even more when looking at the fall. For ad space reserved between June 8 and Election Day, Democrats have spent more than $5.6 million so far, compared with $25,000 set aside by a Republican political action committee. These bookings are subject to change as races come into focus.
The Raleigh-Durham area represents a significant portion of advertising spending in North Carolina for both parties: nearly $2 million for Democrats and more than $138,000 for Republicans. The area is heavily Democratic, but also borders counties like Granville and Franklin, which voted for Trump in 2020.
As a 2020 rematch takes shape, many people in the United States aren’t paying much attention to the election.
About 4 in 10 Americans in a Pew Research Center Survey held in April said they are not following news about the candidates in the presidential race very closely. Younger adults are less likely than older adults to follow election news.
Many people already find the election exhausting, even if they aren’t tuned in. About 6 in 10 American adults surveyed say they are worn out by so much coverage of the campaign and candidates. Those who don’t follow closely are especially likely to say they are exhausted.
In a state with the second largest rural population in the country, winning over these voters is essential. Democrats may not win outright in rural areas of North Carolina, but if they can maintain their narrow margins, they will have a better chance of building on their strength in the state’s urban areas.
Past election results show that appealing to North Carolina’s rural voters may be easier for Republican Trump than Democrat Biden.
In 2020, 64 rural counties supported Trump, while just 14 supported Biden. Compared to his 2016 campaign, Trump’s margin of victory grew in most rural counties four years ago.
Some rural counties could be more competitive. Granville County, for example, had one of the narrowest victory margins for Trump — 53% in 2020 — among rural counties. This represented a jump of 3 percentage points compared to 2016, when Democrat Hillary Clinton narrowly won.
Before Trump, Granville County was considered a rural blue county. Democrat Barack Obama won it in 2008 and 2012. It is one of six North Carolina counties that went from Obama to Trump.
