Nearly all of President Joe Biden’s path to victory depends on strong support from women. But his current standing among women is the weakest lead a Democrat has had since 2004, a key factor in how close the race is.
Biden’s lead among women has fallen to about 8 percentage points since the 2020 election, according to an average of more than 30 polls conducted over the past six months and compiled by The New York Times. This represents a drop from the advantage among women of around 13 percentage points four years ago.
And since the 2020 election, former President Donald Trump’s support among men has rebounded and returned to the double-digit lead it had in 2016.
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Republicans have generally held the lead among men in most presidential elections for decades. But every year that Democrats have won the presidency, they have led more among women.
The drop in support for Biden has been particularly pronounced among black and Hispanic women, according to a new set of polls focused on women across the country and in Arizona and Michigan from KFF, a nonprofit that focuses on research. about healthcare.
Surveys show that while abortion and democracy are key issues for a small but significant segment of women, concerns about inflation continue to play a more central role in the race and benefit Trump.
However, in states where abortion is on the ballot, KFF polls offer some evidence of the Democratic theory that the issue will be a motivating factor that will drive women to vote.
Biden’s support among women is still somewhat more resilient than his support among men, which has fallen further, especially among young men and men without a college degree. And Democratic strategists insist that traditionally Democratic constituencies, including women and voters of color, will return to Biden’s side as the race progresses.
Still, Biden’s current struggles with black and Hispanic women are especially striking. He is winning among Black women in the KFF poll by 58 percentage points, but that represents a significant drop from his 86 percentage point margin among Black women heading into the 2020 election, according to an average of KFF polls. New York Times/Siena College. of that election. Biden’s lead with Hispanic women also narrowed substantially, to about 12 points. The poll found Biden’s lead among women overall to be 4 points.
“Once the campaign kicks into high gear, abortion will mobilize women,” said Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster who has studied women’s voting behavior for decades. “And as much as Trump wants to right-size himself, he can’t stop bragging about how he overturned Roe v. Wade.”
In states like Arizona, where abortion is restricted and could be on the ballot in the fall, Democratic women were more motivated to vote than in states where abortion access was not at risk, KFF surveys found. Among Republican women, there was no difference in motivation.
In Michigan, which voted to affirm abortion rights in 2022, Biden is performing slightly worse among women compared to Arizona, noted Ashley Kirzinger, associate research director at KFF.
“It’s not just that Biden is more popular in Arizona — he’s not,” Kirzinger said. “Michigan women are no longer concerned about abortion access, and Biden fares worse in that scenario.”
Abortion-focused voters tend to be younger and whiter than women overall, KFF polls found. They approve of Biden’s handling of abortion and would like to see him reelected.
But the much larger group of women who say inflation is essential to their vote could decide this election.
“Women don’t think about one issue,” said Kellyanne Conway, a Republican pollster, former Trump campaign manager and co-author, with Lake, of a book detailing women’s political desires. “So they are not single-issue voters.”
“Joe Biden and the Democrats seem to be talking to women only from the waist down, as abortion is the only issue on which Joe Biden has a lead in the polls,” Conway added.
Inflation voters are more likely to be black or Hispanic than women overall. They are more likely to be middle-aged. In Michigan, nearly 60% of black women say inflation is the most important issue for their vote. A similar share of Hispanic women in Arizona say the same. For these women, inflation eliminates all other issues.
Overall, twice as many women say they were better off financially under Trump, KFF surveys found. Young women, a key constituency Democrats hope to hold onto this cycle, were nearly three times more likely to say things were better for them financially under Trump than under Biden. Even so, 41% of young women said there was no difference between the financial situation of the two candidates. Half of black women also said there was no difference.
This trend of democratic success with women is relatively modern. In the 1980s, Ronald Reagan and then George HW Bush won majorities of both men and women. But over the past 20 years, it has been rare for a Democrat to fall below a double-digit advantage over women. The last Democrat to end a campaign with a single-digit lead among women was John Kerry in 2004.
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