Several new polls show that Joe Biden has strengthened slightly in the US presidential election, but suggest that third-party candidates could pose a risk to his chances of winning the White House in November.
According to a New York Times/Siena College Survey released on Saturday, Biden reduced the four-point lead donald trump held in February, with Trump leading Biden 46% to 45% among registered voters.
The drop in support for candidates seven months before Election Day comes at a time when Trump is likely to be largely off the campaign trail and fundraising for the next six weeks as he attends a criminal trial in New York for cause of 2016 pre-election hush money payments.
Despite the reduction in Trump’s lead revealed by the New York Times poll, the poll found a worrying issue for Democrats: some voters remembered Trump’s presidency between 2016 and 2020, despite his ability to sow division and chaos, as a time of economic prosperity and strong national support. security.
Before the 2020 elections, only 39% of voters said the country was better off after Trump took office – a number that increased in the following years with a Democrat in the White House.
According to the New York Times, 42% now consider Trump’s tenure to be better for the country than the Biden administration, compared to 25% who say otherwise and another 25% who say Biden has been “mostly bad” for the country.
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Approval of Trump’s management of the economy has also increased by 10% over the past four years.
A separate study of 1,265 registered voters, released Sunday by I&I/Tipp, showed Biden at 43% and Trump at 40%, if there are no other options in the mix.
Respondents were asked who they preferred in a two-candidate contest, with the option to choose “other” and “not sure” – options returned by 9% of respondents. That number of 18% of the total votes, editor Terry Jones of Problems and insights wrote, showed that Biden and Trump “are not opposed in a vacuum.”
By asking a follow-up question that included independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr, an environmental lawyer and vaccine skeptic, Harvard professor Cornel West and Green Party figure Jill Stein, Biden took the biggest blow to his support , tying with Trump at 38%.
With Kennedy at 11%, West at 2% and Stein at 1%, Jones calculated that Kennedy’s presence shifted five points from Biden’s support to Trump’s two.
“This is not surprising given that RFK Jr is, on most issues, a traditional progressive leftist, which makes him indistinguishable from the current leadership of the Democratic Party,” Jones wrote.
According to the Kennedy campaign, candidate and vice presidential pick Nicole Shanahan currently has enough signatures to appear on the ballot in just six states: Hawaii, Nevada, Utah, Idaho, North Carolina and New Hampshire.
Earlier this month, No Labels announced it would not run a “unity ticket” candidate after reaching out to 30 potential candidates and raising $60 million, despite assessing that “Americans remain more open to an independent presidential run.” and hungrier for national unification.” leadership than ever before.”
The group said it would only offer a candidate if it could identify a candidate with a “credible path” to the White House.
“None of these candidates have emerged, so the responsible course of action is to withdraw,” he said.
Kennedy, who has always denied that his candidacy is, in fact, a “spoiler” for Democratic hopes of keeping the White House, is not the only concern for the party that currently holds executive power.
The research is extremely conflicting. A recent Rasmussen Research found that Biden is behind Trump regardless of third-party candidates.
In a two-way race between Biden and Trump, 49% of likely US voters said they would choose Trump and 41% would vote for Biden. That was a marginal increase for Trump since February, when he led by six points.
This same survey found that 8% would vote for some other candidate, practically matching the I&I/Tipp conclusions.
