WASHINGTON – Most American adults plan to watch some element of Thursday’s presidential debate, and many think the event will be important to the campaigns of President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.
Both men remain widely unpopular as they prepare to face off for the first time since 2020, although Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, maintains a modest enthusiasm advantage with his base compared to Biden, the Democratic nominee.
About 6 in 10 U.S. adults say they are “extremely” or “very” likely to watch the debate live or in clips, or to read or hear comments about the candidates’ performance in the news or on social media.
Polling suggests that tens of millions of Americans are likely to see or hear about at least part of Thursday’s debate, despite it taking place exceptionally early in the campaign season. Both Biden and Trump supporters see the debate as a big test for their candidate – or just a show not to be missed.
“I think it’s super important,” said Victoria Perdomo, a 44-year-old housewife and Trump supporter in Coral Springs, Florida. “This shows America what you’re going to see in the next four years.”
Nic Greene, a libertarian who is a registered independent, said he will likely vote for Trump as the “least worst candidate.” He doesn’t think debates do much to help voters make decisions, but he expects to be entertained and plans to listen to post-debate analysis on podcasts.
“I think most people make up their minds with or without these debates,” he said.
About half, 47%, of Americans say the debate is “extremely” or “very” important to the success of the Biden campaign and about 4 in 10 say it is highly important to the Trump campaign. About 3 in 10 Americans say it is at least “very” important to both campaigns.
The majority of Democrats, 55%, consider the upcoming debate to be extremely or very important to the success of Biden’s campaign. About half of Republicans, 51%, say the same thing about the debate’s importance to Trump’s campaign. Only about a third of independents say the debate is highly important to either campaign.
Arthur Morris, a 40-year-old operations manager for a major financial firm, is an undecided voter open to Biden, Trump or a third-party option, as Americans’ independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has doubts about mental capabilities of elderly candidates and sees Biden’s debate performance as an important test.
“I need Biden to demonstrate to me that he is convincing enough to be able to fill this role and perform at the level we need,” Morris said.
Meanwhile, Trump needs to show he can be trusted following the January 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, in which Trump supporters briefly interrupted the certification of his 2020 defeat to Biden, and Trump’s recent conviction in an secret money, Murray said. , of Lewiston, Ohio.
About 4 in 10 say they are likely to watch or listen to part or all of the debate live, while a similar share say they will watch or listen to clips later. Another 4 in 10, approximately, expect to consume comments about the debate and the candidates’ performance in the news or on social media. Republicans and Democrats are more likely than independents to follow debate coverage in some way.
Biden and Trump are entering the debate with low favorability ratings. About 6 in 10 American adults say they have a very or somewhat unfavorable view of Biden, and a similar number have a negative view of Trump.
A majority of Americans, 56%, say they are “very” or “somewhat” dissatisfied with Biden as the likely Democratic Party nominee for president, and a similar majority are dissatisfied with Trump as the likely Republican Party nominee. The poll indicates that Republicans remain more satisfied with Trump’s renomination than Democrats with Biden’s anticipated renomination. Six in ten Republicans are satisfied with Trump’s nomination; just 42% of Democrats say this about Biden.
About 3 in 10 American adults are dissatisfied with Trump and Biden as their party’s likely nominees — with independents and Democrats more likely than Republicans to be dissatisfied with both.
Republicans and Democrats are more likely to have a negative view of the opposing party’s candidate than a positive view of their own.
About 9 in 10 Republicans have an unfavorable view of Biden and about 9 in 10 Democrats have a negative view of Trump. By comparison, about 7 in 10 Democrats have a favorable view of Biden and about 7 in 10 Republicans have a positive view of Trump.
About 4 in 10 American adults approve of the way Biden is handling his job as president, in line with that number over the past two years. Biden’s approval rating among American adults in managing the economy is similar, as is his handling of abortion policy. Only 3 in 10 approve of her approach to immigration.
“I believe there has been some progress under Biden, but I believe it is Congress that is holding up any of the policies that Biden wants to pursue,” said Jane Quan-Bell, 70, a school librarian from Chico, California. and a Democrat.
The conflict between Israelis and Palestinians is an especially vulnerable point for Biden. With just 26% of US adults approving of his handling of the issue, that is well below his overall approval rating. Nearly 6 in 10 Democrats disapprove of her approach.
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The survey of 1,088 adults was conducted June 20-24, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.0 percentage points.
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Cooper reported from Phoenix.
