WConcerns about President Joe Biden’s age and ability to win a second term have been rising in the Democratic Party for more than a year. Those fears became much harder to ignore after Thursday night, when he fought during a presidential debate against former President Donald Trump. Biden, 81, fumbled his words, stopped at some points and repeatedly lost his train of thought.
Republicans mercilessly mocked the display, and Democrats went into open panic.
Currently, there is no clear mechanism to replace Biden as the party’s candidate – he has already won more than enough delegates during the primaries to secure his nomination before the Democratic national convention in August.
Still, there are ways for Democrats to end up with someone other than Biden at the top of the list, especially if Biden voluntarily steps aside — but the timing and decision of the Democratic National Committee itself regulations, has a lot to do with what is possible, let alone what is plausible. (Not to mention the challenge of choosing a replacement.)
Here are some of the scenarios for how a Democrat other than Biden could become the party’s presidential nominee.
Biden drops out of the race before being formally nominated
In 1968, Lyndon B. Johnson, then president and favorite for the Democratic Party nomination, shocked the country by advertising that he would neither seek nor accept his party’s nomination. The announcement came after he nearly lost in the New Hampshire primary to Eugene McCarthy.
Then-Vice President Hubert Humphrey, who was nominated for president at the convention later that year, ended up losing to Republican candidate Richard Nixon after a campaign season that saw Robert F. Kennedy shot to death in Los Angeles and George McGovern briefly joining as a replacement. in this vein of liberalism.
Biden made no such announcement. But if he decides to withdraw from the race in the coming weeks, delegates will be able to nominate a new candidate, although rules that vary by state will govern who they can support.
Pursuant to Rule 13, Section J, of DNC Delegate Selection rules“elected delegates to the national convention committed to a presidential candidate must, in good conscience, reflect the sentiments of those who elected them.”
This scenario would formally trigger an intense fight for the party nomination among those with name recognition and reputation to attract enough delegates in a very short period of time. Along with Vice President Kamala Harris, people who could actively vie for the nomination could include governors Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Gavin Newsom of California and JB Pritzker of Illinois.
Biden rejects virtual nomination
Because of a quirk in Ohio law that required all candidates to be legally certified by Aug. 7 — more than a week before Biden’s scheduled nomination at the convention opening in Chicago on Aug. 19 — Democrats must formally nominate Biden in a virtual call weeks before the convention. (Ohio lawmakers recently passed a law to solve this quirk, but the DNC said the virtual call will continue just to be safe.)
Biden could choose to reject the virtual nomination, which was supposed to be a formality, setting up delegates to select a new candidate at the in-person Democratic Party convention, where delegates will still participate in a traditional roll call vote.
Delegates have doubts about Biden before nomination
Despite some noisy protest votes in the primaries, Biden won a strong majority of delegates: an estimated 3,937 With pledged delegates assigned in the primaries held so far, Biden is scheduled to arrive at the DNC confab in Chicago in August, with 3,894 pledged to be with him on the first ballot. The extent to which these delegates are required to side with Biden varies, based on each state’s rules.
There are also 739 automatic delegates at stake – or so-called superdelegates. These are the party members, like former presidents, union bosses and mega-donors, who can vote for whoever they want. In 2018, the party chose to reduce the influence of superdelegates in the nomination process, agreeing that superdelegates would not automatically vote on the first ballot.
On paper, the math remains in Biden’s favor if he continues to seek the nomination. In the absence of Biden releasing pledged delegates and state rules allowing such flexibility, they will be with Biden at least through the first round of voting.
But there are still ways for delegates to, essentially, organize a revolt. This is where convention president Minyon Moore comes in. Under DNC rules, a decision by the president can end almost anything. Ignoring the convention president’s decision would require 25% of the delegates to demand a roll call vote.
Still confused? It’s about to get worse: Each DNC jurisdiction — each of the 50 states, Washington, D.C., U.S. territories, and one jurisdiction that represents Democrats living abroad — has slightly different rules about how to handle thorny convention issues, like getting around a presiding rule or make changes to your delegation. So the unfolding of a mediated convention can get incredibly complicated, with the eyes of the world trying to understand the arcane rules that are judged in real time on live TV.
Biden decides after convention that he has doubts
In fact, this would be the cleanest scenario in terms of process and most opaque in terms of democratic values – small D.
In accordance with Rule 8, Section G, of the Call to the Democratic National ConventionIf the presidential and/or vice presidential candidate dies, resigns, or becomes incapacitated after the convention, “the National Chairman of the Democratic National Committee shall consult with the Democratic leadership of the United States Congress and the Democratic Governors Association and shall report to the Democratic National Committee, which is authorized to fill the vacancy or vacancies.”
Once the nomination is decided at the convention, however, only the nominee will be able to opt for bail. The party cannot do this. The party may have doubts about its candidate, but if Biden refuses to give up, there is little it can do other than perhaps apply extraordinary pressure, such as cutting the DNC budget and other resources, to urge him to change his mind. Once the gavel falls, Democrats will be stuck with Biden if he still has a pulse.
Biden wins a second term – but decides to resign or becomes incapacitated before Inauguration Day
If such a scenario plays out before the presidential inauguration on January 20, 2025, the vice president-elect will become president, according to the 20th Amendment. (This assumes that the members of the electoral college acted faithfully – that is, voters voted for the winner of the elections in their states, which have varying levels of rigor in enforcing this behavior.)
If that happens after Biden is sworn in for a second term on Jan. 20, Kamala Harris would become president and be eligible to run for the top job in 2028 for a full four-year term.
This story originally appeared on Time.com read the full story
