If President Joe Biden does not run for re-election, Vice President Kamala Harris would have a large practical advantage over other potential candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination.
This is because only Harris could perfectly assume full control of the president’s campaign war chest, making the vice president the easiest option, at least financially, to replace Biden at the top of the ticket.
“These are uncharted waters, and for a candidate other than the vice president, it will be a burden to raise a lot of money very quickly,” Larry Noble, former general counsel at the Federal Election Commission, told HuffPost.
Turning everything over to a candidate other than Harris becomes much more complicated, if not impossible, according to experts who emphasize the unprecedented nature of the situation Democrats currently face. In that case, the Biden-Harris account could transfer everything to a political action committee, give it to the Democratic National Committee, or reimburse donors and ask them to contribute to a new committee. Neither of these are ideal options.
“Because President Biden and Vice President Harris share an authorized campaign committee… if President Biden were to step down as a candidate and be succeeded as Harris’ nominee, she would retain access to all committee funds and could use them to advance his presidential bid,” Trevor Potter, president of the Campaign Legal Center, a campaign finance watchdog, explained on social media this week.
A new campaign would also have to pay for campaign infrastructure, such as staff, field offices, and existing ad buys, at fair market value, since everything is subject to in-kind contribution limits.
“The Biden-Harris campaign could make a political contribution to another candidate, it is just subject to political contribution limits,” Noble said, citing the federal candidate-to-candidate contribution limit of $2,000 per election. “They just can’t transfer [everything] to another candidate.”
It’s just one example of how challenging it would be to build a new campaign for anyone but Harris four months before the election, as Democrats begin to waver publicly about whether Biden has the stamina to win the election and complete another term. Fundraising is just one piece of a puzzle that would include rallying behind another candidate and putting them on the right path. voting in 50 states with different rules for eligibility.
Harris, who ran against Biden in 2020 before becoming his running mate, is getting a fresh look as a presidential candidate. A CNN poll this week it even showed her slightly outperforming Biden in a head-to-head matchup with Trump.
But Biden and his closest advisers persisted in last Thursday’s debate, during which Biden, 81, appeared unable to effectively counter the 78-year-old former president.
To try to calm growing concerns, the Biden campaign released its second-quarter fundraising numbers on Tuesday, revealing that Biden raised $264 million in the second quarter, including $127 million in June and $33 million only on the day of the debate, according to the campaign. Biden ended the quarter with $240 million in cash on hand versus Trump’s $285 million in cash from its $331 million profit in the second quarter. These are strong numbers for both campaigns in the final stretch of the elections.
But if Democrats nominate Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer or California Gov. Gavin Newsom — who are being considered as potential Biden successors now and in 2028 — neither would directly benefit from the Biden-Harris campaign’s mountain of cash, unless Harris is also running.
The only way, according to campaign finance experts, to ensure that an entirely new slate receives the same money would be to reimburse donors and ask them to contribute to a new candidate committee – a logistical nightmare would not guarantee the same result for a new campaign.
One Democratic strategist called this option “phenomenonally stupid” but emphasized that there is no modern precedent for what Democrats currently face. “People aren’t going to donate back… I don’t think you should give money back in politics,” this person said.
The Biden-Harris campaign could also transfer money to a PAC, which can accept unlimited contributions but cannot spend them in direct coordination with a candidate. Another disadvantage of PAC: they often pay more than candidates for TV airtimea large campaign expense.
The campaign could also give everything to the Democratic National Committee, but even with the DNC, there are rules governing coordination with candidates that restrict the committee’s spending freedom. “That’s not necessarily as effective as spending money on a campaign,” Noble said.
Noble highlighted how, since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968, no sitting president has chosen not to run for re-election, “and that was before all these laws.”
He added: “For a candidate other than the vice president, this will really be a burden to raise a lot of money.”
