The independent voter is the illusory prize in any election. This year, Democrats are hoping that widespread support for abortion rights will attract women who previously might have shunned the party.
But polls show that independent women voters, a critical group for any candidate, are particularly unenthusiastic about the prospect of choosing between the same two candidates who ran in the election last time. Now, with some Democrats publicly considering replacing Joe Biden After her catastrophic debate performance and Kamala Harris emerging as a possible heir apparent, an important question is whether a ticket with Harris would provide them with the necessary excitement..
Over the past two decades, the percentage of registered voters who tell pollsters that they identify as “independent” has risen to about 30% of the electorate, according to April data from the Pew Research Center. But that number masks a basic divide among independents: While they are often considered centrists who swing between Republicans and Democrats, Pew found that all but 3% of self-identified independents are either conservative or liberal.
These individuals, experts say, consistently vote for one party, but choose to call themselves independents because they distrust the party apparatus. Rather than a rebuke to U.S. political polarization, the growing number of self-identified independents may be a symptom of it.
“The independent part of the electorate is much harder to define because this is the group people turn to when they are dissatisfied with both major parties,” said Kelly Dittmar, research director at the Center for American Women and Politics. at the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers. “This dissatisfaction can come from many directions.”
Whether they are secret supporters or true swing votes, this group remains largely a mystery even to experts. Independent women, in particular, don’t tend to have much in common demographically, making it difficult to predict their voting patterns, Dittmar said.
Still, there are some key demographics that lean toward independence. Hispanic women make up a growing share of the electorate – Hispanic Americans will be responsible a record 14.7% of eligible voters in November – and increasingly identify as independent, according to Eduardo Gamarra, who directs the Latino Public Opinion Forum at Florida International University. Like the rest of the country, they are increasingly frustrated with US policy.
“Over the last decade, they have trusted American institutions more than [other Americans]”, said Gamarra. “Now, we are seeing that Hispanics are essentially the same [as other demographics]. They don’t trust the parties. They don’t trust politicians. But this is especially pronounced with Biden and the Democrats.”
This could be a particular problem for Biden in Arizona, a key battleground state. A quarter of Hispanic women voters say they are independent, while another quarter identify as Republican and half as Democrat.
Harris has a better favorability rating among Hispanic and black voters than Biden, according to recent polls from Politico and Morning Consult. But she doesn’t fare well among independent voters writ large: 62% think Harris is unlikely to win the presidential election, 51% think she would be a bad president, and 34% think she should be removed as vice president. president.
As so often happens, the issue may end up being whether independent women are motivated to vote.
Self-identified, true independent voters – those who do not lean in one partisan direction – helped change the 2020 elections in favor of Biden, with 52% voting for Biden and 43% for Trump, after being evenly split between Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016. Recommended exit searches that, in 2020, 60% of independent voters supported Biden.
But this year, independent women don’t seem motivated to go to the polls. Compared to previous presidential elections, 31% of truly independent women are “less motivated” to vote, more than Republicans or Democrats, according to recent KFF research (Kaiser Family Foundation). Almost 40% of independent women say they are “disinterested” in the elections. Only 21% of Democrats and 14% of Republicans feel the same way.
Given that about a dozen states could have abortion-related ballot measures this year, including swing states like Nevada and Arizona, Democrats are hoping that enthusiasm around these measures — which have previously been successful even in deep red states — will increase the voter turnout and translate into more support for Biden and Harris. Replacing Biden with a woman, like Harris or Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, could be especially helpful, said Marc Hetherington, a political science professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. (Biden has insisted she will remain in the race.)
“The messenger about abortion rights, the importance of abortion rights and things along those lines — it’s just a much more powerful message coming from a Gen X woman than an 81-year-old man,” he said.
But abortion may not be Biden and Harris’ silver bullet.
One in ten women voters now say abortion is their top issue, KFF found, ahead of issues like gun policy and the war in Gaza. But polls from KFF, the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI), and the firm PerryUndem have consistently found that abortion is less important to independent women than to their Democratic counterparts. Instead, polls from KFF and PerryUndem indicate that the economy – already the top issue among most voters – is far more important to this group than any other issue.
Gamarra, Florida, believes his state will pass a measure to enshrine the right to abortion in the state constitution. But he said the measure’s success will not lead to greater support for Democrats among voters in Florida or other states that will have abortion-related ballot measures.
“They will cross party lines to vote for the amendment, but then they will remain as Republicans or as independents and will not vote for the Democratic candidates,” Gamarra said. “Especially, I would add, if Democrats don’t resolve their leadership issue very quickly.”
