WASHINGTON – Growing skepticism about President Joe Biden’s re-election chances has European leaders heading to the NATO summit in Washington confronting the prospect that the military alliance’s most prominent critic, Donald Trump, could return to power over its most powerful military.
NATO – made up of 32 European and North American allies committed to defending each other from armed attacks – will highlight strength through solidarity as it celebrates its 75th anniversary during the summit that begins Tuesday. Event host Biden, who drew allies into a global network to help Ukraine fight The invasion of Russiacalled the alliance the most unified that has ever existed.
But behind the scenes, a dominant theme will be preparation for a possible split, as the power of far-right forces hostile to NATO grows in the US and other countries. countries including Franceraising concerns about how strong support will be for the alliance and the military aid that its members send to Ukraine.
At the presidential debate, Biden asked Trump: “Are you going to stay in NATO or are you going to leave NATO?” Trump tilted his head with a shrug.
Biden’s poor debate performance triggered a frenzy over whether the 81-year-old president is suitable for office or should step down as the Democratic presidential candidate.
Even before the debate, European governments were in deep consultation about what they could do to ensure that NATO, Western support for Ukraine and the security of each NATO country will remain if Trump regains the presidency in November and moderates US contributions.
Some Americans and Europeans call NATO “Trump-proof” – or “future-proof” when the political advances of other far-right political blocs in Europe are taken into account.
This week’s summit, held in the city where the mutual defense alliance was founded in 1949, was expected to be a celebration of NATO’s resilience. Now, said one European official, it looks “bleak.”
There are two reasons for sadness: Russian advances on the battlefield in the months when Congressional Republicans allied with Trump delayed US weapons and funding for Ukraine. And the possibility of far-right governments hostile to NATO’s coming to power.
The official spoke to reporters last week on condition of anonymity to discuss private government-to-government conversations.
Rachel Rizzo, senior NATO researcher at the nonpartisan think tank Atlantic Council, says she has a blunt message for Europeans: “Being crazy about a second Trump term doesn’t help anyone.”
For allies at the summit, she said, the key will be to resist the temptation to dwell on the details of unprecedented developments in U.S. politics and hang their heads. preparing Western military aid for Ukraine and prepare for any reduction in US support.
Trump, who before and after his presidency spoke with admiration of Russian President Vladimir Putin It is harshly from NATO, often focuses its complaints on the US share in the costs of the alliance. Biden himself warned almost 30 years ago about the already constant criticism of the fact that Europeans do not exert their weight in NATO.
The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 led the West to think that the Russian threat had been neutralized, leading to cuts in military spending. Now, NATO allies are bolstering their forces against any broader aggression by Putin, and a record 23 NATO nations are meeting defense spending targets.
Former Trump national security adviser John Bolton says Trump, in a second term, would work to take the US out of NATO. Congress passed legislation last year that makes this more difficult, but a president could simply stop collaborating on some or all NATO missions.
The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to an email seeking comment.
Elections in France, likewise, seem destined to bring a far-right party, an opponent of NATO, under the leadership of Marine Le Pen, to greater power. Far-right forces are also winning in Germany.
Some European officials and analysts say this is simply the rise and fall of voter loyalty in democracies, something NATO has addressed before. They point to Poland, where a right-wing party lost power last year and whose people have been among NATO’s most ardent supporters. They also highlight Italy, where right-wing populist Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has won praise as an ally.
Partly in response to the political upheaval in the United States, Europeans say they want to “institutionalize” support for Ukraine within NATO, reducing dependence on the United States.
European allies also failed to supply Ukraine with sufficient weapons during the delay in a US foreign aid package, NATO’s outgoing secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, acknowledged on a visit to Washington last month.
That’s “one of the reasons I believe we should have a stronger role in NATO – it’s that role in providing support,” Stoltenberg told reporters.
One initiative that will likely be approved at the summit is NATO takes more responsibility for coordinating training and military and financial assistance to Ukrainian rather than U.S. forces. Europeans also talk about giving Ukrainians a greater presence in NATO bodies, although there is still no consensus on Ukraine’s accession to the alliance.
Europeans say NATO countries are coordinating statements on Ukraine for the summit to make clear, for example, that further escalation by Russia would face substantial new sanctions and other sanctions from the West. This is even if the US, under Trump, does not act.
As for NATO’s overall security, in addition to European allies increasing defense spending, they are focusing on defense strategies that do not depend as much on the US. There is also a growing emphasis on ensuring that each country is capable of mobilizing armies and fighting wars, the European official said. he said.
The possibility of a less reliable US partner under Trump is generating discussions about the Europeans’ greater role in NATO’s nuclear deterrent, according to the Poland-based security think tank Center for Oriental Studies. The US now plays the determining role in the nuclear weapons stationed in Europe.
But European countries and Canada, with their smaller military budgets and economies, are years away from being able to fill any US-sized gap in NATO.
“If an American president comes into office and says, ‘We’re done with this,’ there’s definitely a willingness in Europe to fill the American role,” said John Deni, senior security researcher at the Atlantic Council. “The British would take advantage.”
But “even they will recognize that they don’t have the capability or capacity, and they can’t do it at the speed and scale that we can,” Deni said. “This notion that we are somehow Trump-proof or future-proof. proving American commitment – whether to Ukraine or NATO – I think that’s mostly fantasy.”
