As NATO leaders meet in Washington this week, Ukraine’s future hangs in the balance.
Despite promises from alliance leaders to continue arming Ukraine in its fight to fend off invading Russian forces, the prospect of donald trumpThe President’s return to the White House is casting a shadow over the summit.
A Trump victory in November’s presidential election could mean a dramatic decline in U.S. aid to Ukraine and American political pressure on Kiev to give in to Russian demands in any peace talks, Western officials say.
Trump has long avoided criticism of Russia’s invasion and questioned the value of the NATO alliance. His political allies have expressed skepticism about large U.S. military aid packages provided to Ukraine.
Trump’s former national security advisers proposed a peace plan This would require major concessions on Ukraine’s part, including abandoning the possibility of NATO membership in the near future.
Trump did not offer any details about his position on Ukraine, other than promising to end the war “before he even got to the Oval Office, shortly after we won the presidency.” But he did not explain how he would end the war.
Common June Podcast, Trump was asked if he would rule out Ukraine’s eventual membership of NATO. He responded that promising membership to Ukraine was a “mistake” and “that’s really why this war started,” comments that seemed to echo Moscow’s talking points on the conflict.
In a statement, Trump campaign communications director Steven Cheung said: “President Trump has repeatedly stated that a top priority in his second term will be to quickly negotiate an end to the Russia-Ukraine war. President Trump believes that European nations should pay more for the costs of the conflict, as the US paid significantly more, which is not fair to our taxpayers. “
“The war between Russia and Ukraine would never have happened if Donald J. Trump had been president. So sad.”
Republican Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio, considered a possible Trump running mate, has argued against sending tens of billions of dollars worth of weapons to Ukraine. In opposing the aid package passed by Congress in April, Vance said it would not be enough to change the course of the war and that the U.S. defense industry failed to produce enough weapons to meet Ukraine’s needs.
The Trump campaign has stated that any policy proposals made by his supporters or former advisers are not endorsed by Trump.
European officials say that exactly what Trump would do regarding Ukraine remains an open question, as his team has avoided providing any details about his plans. But they are worried.
The growing anxiety among European allies about a Trump victory is “completely understandable,” said John Herbst, a former ambassador to Ukraine and now a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank. “Trump is kind of a wild card.”
Ukrainian government officials seeking continued U.S. support have had to navigate a partisan minefield over the past year and they were frustrated that the issue of arming Kiev has become a pawn in America’s domestic politics.
They considered the Biden administration’s approach too slow and cautious, delaying the arrival of badly needed weapons. But they also fear what a second Trump presidency could mean for their cause, Western officials say.
For Kiev, Trump’s plans are a mystery, said William Taylor, a career diplomat who was ambassador to Ukraine under President George W. Bush and briefly chargé d’affaires in Kiev under Trump.
“They’re not sure — nobody’s sure — what former President Trump would do,” said Taylor, now at the US Institute for Peace think tank.
Congress adopted the military aid package in April after months of delay, with a group of pro-Trump Republican lawmakers blocking its passage. But when Congress finally voted on the proposal, Trump had no public opinion. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky, credited Trump’s public silence with helping get the aid across the finish line.
A majority of Americans continue to support arming Ukraine, according to a new survey from the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute, with 57% in favor, 32% against and 11% unsure. The survey results were almost identical to those of a survey conducted a year ago.
Although Ukraine managed to neutralize a major Russian offensive near Kharkiv with weapons from the US and European countries, its troops are outnumbered by Russia’s large ground force and it is struggling to maintain its air defenses against relentless Russian bombardment. of missiles and drones. .
On Monday, Russia launched the heaviest airstrike on Kiev in four months, hitting a children’s hospital in the capital and other targets across the country, killing dozens of people and wounding more than 120, Ukrainian officials said.
To help Ukraine defend itself, NATO member states are prepared to pledge this week to continue spending about $43 billion a year on military equipment for Ukraine, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said. last week.
“I hope that the allies will decide at the summit to maintain this level next year,” Stoltenberg told journalists.
The Biden administration and other European governments are expected to make announcements at the NATO summit this week about new military equipment for Ukraine, including possibly more Patriot missile defense systems, fighter jets and other weapons.
As for Ukraine’s future security arrangements, North American and European officials say they hope to draft a declaration at the summit promising an “irreversible” path for Kiev to NATO membership.
But that language may not be enough to secure Ukraine’s place in the NATO alliance if Trump is elected, said Tamar Jacoby, director of the New Ukraine Project at the Kiev-based think tank Progressive Policy Institute.
“If we want to be in the West, we have to be linked to the West and, in fact, we have to be protected, ultimately, by the West. And so, in some ways, NATO membership is the most important thing that Ukrainians fight for,” Jacoby said.
NATO countries should adopt a binding measure guaranteeing Ukraine’s eventual membership of the alliance, to protect Ukraine after any possible armistice negotiated between Kiev and Moscow, she said.
“If there was ever a time to create a Trump-proof path to NATO for Ukraine, this would be it,” Jacoby said.
This article was originally published in NBCNews. with
