Ray Dalio: The Democrats’ Problem

AAs you know, my examination of history has led me to believe that there are five great interrelated forces that shape events in the world. Studying them has given me a model that I can follow that helps me understand what is happening and what is likely to happen within what I call The Great Cycle. Then I observe the day-to-day evolution in light of this cycle. Today’s remarks focus on the cycle of domestic order in the US, more specifically, focusing on the Democratic Party and President Biden, who grapples with the question of whether or not he should continue to be the party’s presidential candidate.

The loss of confidence in the Democratic Party and the next steps

To begin, I want to make it clear that I respect, like, and empathize with President Biden and understand that Democrats find themselves in a difficult position. At the same time, it is logical for me and others to say that the leadership of the Democratic Party suffered a terrible loss of confidence in its honesty and judgment because it a) hid President Biden’s weak and rapidly declining condition and then, when that condition became -if apparent, b) told the American people that we shouldn’t worry about this and that it would be better for President Biden to run and be elected president. Now that this plan has gone awry, they are struggling to know what to do. There are three possible plans that I see them struggling to choose from, which I call the “bait and switch plan,” the “mini-primary plan,” and the “coronation plan.”

See more information: The Great Controversy to Come

“The Bait and Switch Plan”

The plan before the public discovery of President Biden’s condition, which is still the plan they now publicly defend, is to assert that President Biden will be fine. However, the discovery of his condition by the public led him to change the situation a little. For example, they now say he is fine between 10am and 4pm, but they have not addressed the likelihood of him getting worse over time. This is obviously ridiculous and an insult to people’s intelligence, so it leaves people a) with a loss of confidence in the Democrats’ candor and judgment and b) without a clear picture of how leadership will work and what the Democratic Party stands for. This is important in light of the divide between those on the moderate left and those on the extreme left.

“The Mini-Primary Plan” and “The Coronation Plan”

If Democrats decide to try to switch nominees before the election, they could select a replacement:

a) have debates among the fragmented group of contenders (this will happen after President Biden steps aside and the divide between those on the moderate left and those on the extreme left emerges), which is what I call a mini-primary plan that would probably be detrimental to their chances of winning the general election, but would allow the American people to see and choose the leader and path they would like to follow, or

b) have President Biden pass the nomination to Kamala Harris, what I call a coronation plan, because he and others, but not the people, confer the crown on her, which would be less confusing but would leave people without the opportunity to listen to the debates and through this see what the different paths to follow would be like and then make your own candidate choices.

Next Steps: What Should They Do?

I see this case as the fable of the emperor without clothes and I think about what happened when everyone saw that he had no clothes and the lessons that the fable brings – that it is better to recognize the truth and move forward in the best possible way. I believe that mainstream Democrats should start by at least acknowledging and telling the truth, whatever it may be – for example 1) that they made a terrible mistake in letting this situation get where it did by hiding it and 2) that they believe that governing Biden and Harris gives them the best chance of getting elected and that they will deal with their condition after winning a second term because the alternatives seem worse to them. This is the real thinking behind the “bait and switch plan,” which to me is a terrible plan anyway.

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I think that whatever plan they choose, they should acknowledge the problem – that Biden may not be able to fulfill his mandate – and explain how they will deal with it in detail, most importantly, making clear who will lead (e.g. Harris ) and will flesh out what the Democrats will advocate by having a very detailed platform and signaling who or what type of people she will choose as advisors, cabinet officials, etc.

Personally, I think the best way to get there is through the Mini-Primary Plan, so that voters can see the debates and candidates’ positions and, with those who have been stress tested, able to vote for whoever they want. Regardless of which path the Democratic Party leadership takes, they must be honest and follow through on what they say, because without confidence in their truth, they will lack what people need most to support them.

I understand this is difficult and confusing, especially if President Biden refuses to go down this path, but running the government is even more difficult and confusing, so I see this as a good test of how well they can handle situations difficult. For me, not being afraid and being able to do what is necessary to lead and be followed is a requirement to lead the country.

Who will step forward and deal with this directly?

I still hope that honest, intelligent, strong, and ideally moderate bipartisan Democrats (or Republicans) will step forward and make the path forward clear. I know they still exist. Mark Warner is a possibility, so I’ll be interested to see how he handles this situation. I would hope that if someone steps forward, others will follow. In any case, moving forward in this way is the hardest and right thing to do, so I hope some leader does it. If we see that this does not happen, we will see that the Democratic Party has failed this important test.

As things stand now, there is neither a good presidential candidate nor a good party for me to choose.

Right now, there is no good choice for me to lead the country because there is no one who can give me what I value most. What I value most is civility over disorder, a strong bipartisan center over uncompromising extremism, respect for law and order, respect for different approaches to life, including non-involvement in the internal affairs of other countries , peace instead of war, strength instead of weakness, and thoughtful reflection. disagreement and radical truthfulness. I respect all different cultures and religions and prefer people’s freedom to choose those that suit them best. Basically, I prefer almost any way to live life as long as it doesn’t harm other people, and I would fight for these values ​​because my study of history has taught me that they make the world a much healthier and happier place. than the alternatives. I also believe that a strong education that includes the teaching of strong character is essential and terribly neglected. Given that all of these things are weakening in the US, I worry about the US weakening despite the remarkable inventiveness of a small group of people whose ideas are fueled by vibrant capitalism.

At the same time, as I see the creative capitalist vibe producing great advances, I worry that capitalism does not place the effort to provide equal opportunity as high as it should relative to the effort to be personally wealthy and successful. As I think you know, I believe that not providing much more equal opportunity, starting with early childhood education, is unfair and unsustainable because it will lead to a weaker population, great social costs and great conflict. Therefore, I believe that what is needed is strong bipartisan leadership to make major reforms, for the reasons I explained, in some depth, five years ago when I wrote Why and how capitalism needs to be reformed.

It’s an unfortunate reality for me and about half of all Americans (46% from a recent poll) that we want a better alternative than supporting any of the existing candidates. While I personally would love to see a strong mid-level third party that could function well on a bipartisan basis, that is not an option and a topic for another time. For now, the choices I see on both sides are more opposing than aligned with what I’m looking for. I feel like I’m faced with a choice between a strong, unethical, borderline fascist Republican Party and a weak, lying, enigmatic Democratic Party that can’t make clear what it will do when its sitting president can no longer serve. I and most others know what the Republican Party stands for (the far right) and who will lead it, because the Republicans are aligned and are clearer about these things, but I don’t know what the Democratic Party will stand for or which team of people will lead it over the next five years.

For these reasons, it seems to me that the presidential race is now essentially a race between the devil we know, who is far right, and some devil we don’t know, who is left, although how far left is unclear.