HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) — Two swing districts in a swing county could very well decide which party controls the House in the swing state of Pennsylvania, one of several where crucial legislative battles are playing out in the shadow of the presidential campaign.
Democrat Brian Munroe and Republican Joe Hogan were elected nearly two years ago to their seats in Philadelphia’s north suburbs, winning by margins of 515 and 76 votes, respectively, out of more than 30,000 votes cast.
Their races this year are among a few dozen nationally that could determine the party’s control of state capitals and, ultimately, who sets public policy on controversial issues such as abortion, guns and transgender rights. The disputes are particularly important due to recent U.S. Supreme Court decisions that weakened federal regulatory oversight and returned more power to the states.
“State legislatures will determine the rights and freedoms we have and the direction our country will take. The stakes couldn’t be higher,” said Daniel Squadron, co-founder of The States Project, which recently announced a $70 million effort to help Democratic legislative candidates in certain states.
In all, groups aligned with Democrats and Republicans are planning to invest several hundred million dollars in state legislative battles. Nearly 5,800 legislative seats in 44 states are up for election this year. Top targets include a half-dozen states where control of one chamber is at stake — Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Most of these states are also presidential battlegrounds. In some cases, national political groups are trying to link legislative candidates to the fortunes of President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. In others, they try to distinguish them from the top of the ticket.
Biden sought to recover from a poor debate performance campaigning in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. But his political troubles have led some Democrats to suggest he should step aside and have raised concerns that down-ballot Democrats could also suffer if disheartened Democrats decide not to vote.
Democrats won a slim 102-101 majority in the Pennsylvania House two years ago. But Republicans have expressed confidence they can retake the House this year, citing inflation, immigration and Biden’s problems.
“If the election were held tomorrow, I would feel great about it,” said Pennsylvania state Rep. Josh Kail, head of campaign efforts for Pennsylvania House Republicans.
The Republican State Leadership Committee has already run ads in Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin blaming inflation on Biden and other Democrats while promoting Republican legislative candidates.
Democrats are aiming for Wisconsin after a new liberal state Supreme Court majority overturned previous Republican-influenced districts that had cemented the GOP in power. The new districts, supported by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, improve Democrats’ chances.
The 2022 Supreme Court ruling that overturns half a century of abortion rights showed both the influence of national politics on state elections and the importance of state legislatures. Following the ruling, many Republican-led states banned or limited abortions, while many Democratic-led states strengthened abortion protections.
The decision gave Democrats a new campaign theme for the 2022 midterm elections, which were the first to be held in congressional districts redrawn based on 2020 census data. took control of the legislative chambers far from Republicans in Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania.
This year’s re-election bids by Hogan and Munroe are among 15 Pennsylvania House races highlighted by the National Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. Both of your Bucks County Districts They gave just over half their votes to Biden four years ago and a larger margin to Democrats John Fetterman and Josh Shapiro in their 2022 races for U.S. Senate and governor.
“We believe we have a great opportunity to not only protect our majority in the suburbs, but to grow our majority,” said Pennsylvania House Majority Leader Matt Bradford.
Democrat Anna Payne, who is challenging Hogan, sees abortion rights, public safety and school funding as the top issues.
“To some extent, people look for common sense,” Payne said. “They don’t want anyone who is too extremist on one side or too extremist on the other.”
Hogan, a former congressional aide, has carved out a moderate image in the General Assembly, working on early childhood education and public transportation, among other things.
“I’m willing to work with anyone to do what I think is the right thing,” Hogan said.
Rosemary Donahue, a 77-year-old retired nurse and registered Republican, said she has received correspondence from Hogan and will evaluate his performance on issues such as fixing roads, supporting schools and women’s health rights. She regularly follows state and national politics.
“If you watch television, you can’t think about anything else because you’re constantly bombarded by the presidential election, with ads and everything,” Donahue said.
Arlene McBride, who recently became one of Munroe’s constituents, said she will watch her race with Bucks County Recorder of Deeds Dan McPhillips to see who is more inclined to preserve the social safety net. She classifies women’s health, education and welcoming immigrants among her main issues.
“Do they care about others or is it strictly business?” said McBride, 90, a registered Democrat. “It doesn’t seem like those who are strictly pro-big business really care about those less fortunate.”
Research has shown that many voters know little about their state legislative candidates, so “national politics will likely dominate state legislative elections,” said Steven Rogers, a political scientist at Saint Louis University who focuses on state legislatures.
As Republicans seek to reverse their 2022 losses, Democrats are pushing to flip the closely divided, GOP-led legislative chambers in Arizona and New Hampshire.
Immigration and inflation are especially important issues in Arizona. And abortion rights advocates recently petition signatures submitted to get a constitutional amendment on the November ballot. This has raised the stakes in a state where voter registration is split almost evenly between Republicans, independents and Democrats.
“I expect a lot of the national issues — the national dynamics — to really influence the legislative races in Arizona because of our status as a battleground state,” said James Strickland, a political scientist at Arizona State University.
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Lieb reported from Jefferson City, Missouri.
