AP Decision Notes: What to expect from New Jersey’s special congressional primary

WASHINGTON – Democrats running to replace the late U.S. Representative Donald Payne Jr. will go before voters Tuesday in a crowded and contentious special congressional primary, where three candidates survived legal challenges to remove them from the ballot.

The winner will represent the party in a September 18 Special General Election to serve out the remaining weeks of Payne’s term in northern New Jersey’s 10th Congressional District, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 6 to 1. The outcome of that election will likely further narrow an already fragile Republican majority in the U.S. House .

One of the Democrats seeking to fill the vacancy is LaMonica McIver, president of the Newark City Council. McIver has the support of much of the state’s party establishment, including Governor Phil Murphy, U.S. Senator and former Newark Mayor Cory Booker, state party chairman Leroy Jones, who also serves as chairman of the County Democratic Committee. of Essex, and the current mayor of Newark, Ras. Baraka. She also touts the endorsement of William D. Payne, a former state representative and uncle of the late congressman.

In May, McIver’s campaign was nearly derailed in its early stages when a rival candidate, former East Orange councilwoman Brittany Claybrooks, filed a legal challenge to the validity of the paperwork McIver submitted to run for office. Special primary candidates were required to collect 200 valid signatures from the district’s Democratic electorate. McIver’s paperwork indicated she had 1,081 signatures, all collected by a city council aide, McIver’s mother, over a three-day period, which Claybrooks’ rebuttal claimed was logistically impossible.

A state administrative law judge reviewed text messages sent into evidence from another McIver aide allegedly claiming he had also collected signatures on McIver’s behalf, contrary to what McIver’s paperwork indicated. The McIver team sent their own text messages, purportedly from the aide recanting his previous statement, saying he “lied” and “misspoke.” The aide did not respond to a subpoena to testify in court, and the judge ended up dismissing the case and ruling that McIver can remain on the ballot.

Claybrooks also faced a challenge to his nomination petitions, this one filed by state Democratic Party officials. This challenge was also rejected.

The 11-candidate Democratic field also includes: Linden Mayor Derek Armstead, who testified against McIver in the court challenge; Jersey City educator John Flora; state economic redevelopment officer Darryl Godfrey; small business owner and community activist Alberta Gordon; Payne’s former congressional staffer Shana Melius; educator and community organizer Sheila Montague; community activist Debra Salters; Hudson County Commissioner Jerry Walker; and election law professor Eugene Mazo, who also survived a legal challenge to his nomination papers filed by state Democratic Party officials.

In addition to McIver and Claybrooks, several other candidates have previously run for other offices. Mazo and Flora ran against Payne in the 2020 Democratic primary. Montague placed fifth in the April Newark school board election. She also challenged Baraka for mayor of Newark in 2022, receiving 3,007 votes, or about 17% of all votes cast. For Salters, Tuesday’s special primary marks his third run for elected office this year alone. She placed fourth in the Newark school board elections in April, ahead of Montague, and placed third in the Essex County Committee in the June primary.

McIver led the field in fundraising and money in the bank at the end of June in what has been a compact, relatively low-investment campaign. Godfrey and Armstead ranked second and third in campaign contributions.

The special primary and special general elections will decide just who will fill Payne’s seat in the current Congress. The regularly scheduled general election in November will decide who will represent the district for the full term starting in January 2025. Because Payne was posthumously renominated in the June 4 primary for what would have been a 7th full term, Democratic Party officials will nominate a candidate to replace him in the vote for the full term.

Small business owner Carmen Bucco is running unopposed in the Republican special primary and is also the GOP nominee for a full term in November.

Payne died of a heart attack on April 24. He succeeded his father, Donald Payne Sr., who was elected to 12 terms and died in office in 2012.

Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday:

The special primary for New Jersey’s 10th Congressional District will be held on Tuesday. Voting closes at 8pm ET.

The Associated Press will release the voting results and declare the winner of the special Democratic primary for Congress. The Republican primaries are uncontested.

Registered party members may vote only in their own party’s primary. In other words, Democrats cannot vote in Republican primaries or vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters can participate in either primary.

The 10th Congressional District includes parts of three counties west of New York City: Essex (seat of Newark), Hudson (seat of Jersey City), and Union. Essex is the dominant player in 10th District elections, representing 57% of the district population, compared to about 24% for Union and 19% for Hudson.

McIver could perform well in Newark, given his position as city council president, and in Essex County in general, considering the support of the county’s political establishment. A candidate who remains competitive with McIver in these areas would be a candidate to watch. Claybrooks is also from Essex.

McIver also received support from the Democratic Party in Union County, where Armstead serves as mayor.

Special elections tend to be relatively low-turnout events, especially without other higher-profile races on the ballot to attract voters. This, coupled with the crowded field of 11 candidates, means that determining the winner could come down to relatively few votes.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it is determined that there is no scenario that would allow trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race is not called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or victory declarations. In doing so, the AP will make it clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Although New Jersey does not have automatic recounts, candidates and voters can request and pay for them, with the cost reimbursed if the result changes. The AP may declare a winner in a race eligible for recount if it can determine that the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the result.

As of the June 4 primary, there were 501,324 registered voters in the 10th Congressional District. Of these, 271,633 were Democrats (54%), 181,025 were unaffiliated or independent (36%), and 42,588 were Republicans (8.5%).

Turnout in the district was about 7% of registered voters in the June Democratic primary and about 8% in the 2022 Democratic primary.

Pre-Election Day voting in the district represented about 44% of the total votes cast in the June 4 Democratic primary and about 35% in the 2022 Democratic primary.

As of July 7, a total of 6,911 votes had already been cast in the Democratic special primary, about 53% in Essex County.

In the June 4 primary election, the AP first released the results at 8:03 p.m. ET, or three minutes after polls closed. Election night counting ended at 12:25 pm ET, with about 91% of the total votes counted.

As of Tuesday, there will be 64 days until the September 18 special general election and 112 days until the November general election.