What You Should Know Before the Republican National Convention

MILWAUKEE — Weeks of Democratic pressure on President Joe Biden to drop out of the presidential race had already turned the 2024 campaign upside down, as Republicans prepared to rally this week and crown former President Donald Trump as their nominee .

Then a would-be assassin grazed Trump’s ear with a bullet at a rally in Pennsylvania.

Both developments have shaken up a race that has remained stagnant — but close — for months, and will be a priority for attendees of this week’s Republican National Convention.

The conversation around the race has changed – and changed again – after months in which the discussion centered on the possibility of Trump returning to office after the January 6 riot at the Capitol and amid the few ongoing lawsuits he faces.

But a more disciplined campaign, some beneficial court rulings — plus his guilty verdict in a New York court in May — and the fact that Biden has touched off an intraparty firestorm after a disastrous debate performance last month has put Trump in a position which he is not familiar with. almost a decade running for president: as the favorite to win.

And that dynamic, above all, should lead to some intriguing stories to watch at your convention this week.

Here are a few to keep an eye on:

How the assassination attempt changes the convention

A major theme will be how the weekend’s violence transforms the message during convention week.

Will the speakers continue to insist on the planned topics? Will they try to curb the rhetoric in the name of pushing for unity in the aftermath of the attack on Trump – which killed one rally attendee and injured others? Or will Republicans seek to place blame for Saturday’s shooting at the hands of Democratic leaders?

How this, too, will affect speakers who previously may have mildly criticized elements of the Republican platform or Trump campaign remains an open question — but one worth watching. Social conservatives who may have challenged elements of the platform, particularly its softening of some key cultural issues, may now not file such complaints.

The same is true in reverse. At a time when Trump seeks to distance himself from the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 – which has become central to Democratic campaigns against his return to office – he is clearly sensitive to how he is viewed on certain controversial issues. A convention speaker going beyond Trump’s stated positions has the potential to cause quite a stir, both in the media and within the Trump campaign.

Trump and his top campaign aides have been widely credited with a more disciplined campaign this cycle, so it’s hard to imagine a speaker receiving such prepared remarks at this well-run convention. And here too the shooting may have taken that off the table.

Take the fight to Biden – or Kamala Harris?

After a disastrous debate performance in Atlanta last month, Biden is facing an all-out firestorm within the Democratic Party as some lawmakers, influencers and donors have pushed for him to drop out of the race. In appearances since then, he has defiantly rejected their pleas and is plugging cracks in his dam just weeks before his own party’s convention. And with the assassination attempt, the focus suddenly shifted away from him.

Republicans have certainly spent years preparing to fight Biden this fall. Which makes the possibility of him being replaced all the more interesting in the summer’s main Republican campaign event.

If Biden remains in the race, much of the campaign against him will focus on his policy decisions as president – particularly on immigration and the economy – as well as his Justice Department’s involvement in a pair of cases facing Trump and his general physical and general state. cognitive ability to serve as president.

If Biden decides to step aside before his convention — a decision he is now signaling is off the table — the most likely person to replace him will be Vice President Kamala Harris, whom Republicans are already suggesting they will attack for participating in a “cover”. -up” of Biden’s fitness for office.

Will speakers focus more energy on Biden at his summer main event? Or will Harris have a much greater focus? The answer will give viewers a sense of the campaign they’re actually preparing for now, as the fall race approaches.

Setting aside conservative social issues

Trump has not fully backed off on some of the issues that excite social conservatives, as his recently announced party platform elevates a number of culture war issues that the right has seized on in recent years, particularly those related to education and transgender rights. .

But this year’s platform represents a firm departure from the Republican Party’s decades-long alignment on several other key issues.

For starters, restrictions on abortion, as they have been in the Trump campaign since Roe v. Wade. Wade was canceled, they are taking a backseat. Trump’s platform on abortion is softer than recent Republican Party platforms, as is the stance on same-sex marriage. Guns and God are also mentioned less than in the past in their concise document – ​​which lays out the vision for MAGA 2025.

This has led to some backlash so far from social conservative leaders, groups and politicians, and will perhaps be the main issue to watch at the convention.

One place to see the battle play out will be during convention speeches — and if any speakers decide to place particular focus on that divide. Speaking of convention speeches, some conservatives have already questioned model Amber Rose, a key figure in the “Slut Walk” movement, having the opportunity to speak.